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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Sep 29 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Sep 30
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Chile databank Sep 25
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Oct 1
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Dominican Republic databank Sep 25
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Ecuador databank Sep 30
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Gulf Countries databank Oct 3
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Hungary databank Sep 11
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Aug 28
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Sep 29
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Philippines databank Oct 8
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Poland databank Sep 29
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Russia Economics databank Sep 15
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South Africa databank Oct 3
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Oct 6
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CHILE ELECTION BRIEFING: GOING INTO THE FIRST ROUND...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Politics back to normal, mixed signals on economic performance and inflation, and a gloomy fiscal outlook
POLAND · Report · 30 Sep 2025
Polish politics briefly united during the September 9 drone crisis but then quickly reverted to partisan tensions. With the KO and PiS leading in polls, PiS’s rural dominance suggests a likely coalition with Konfederacja, sidelining the KO. Economically, Poland experienced strong growth in Q2 202...
Russian drones in Polish airspace. What to think?
POLAND · In Brief · 11 Sep 2025
Russian drones in Polish airspace. What to think? The (known) facts and our take During the night and the early morning of September 9, Russian drones entered the Polish airspace multiple times. The incident occurred during the Russian heavy bombing operation on Ukraine involving 400 drones and 1...
Post-election political trauma and the first weeks with Nawrocki
POLAND · Report · 25 Aug 2025
Poland is at a critical political juncture following Karol Nawrocki's narrow presidential victory, which has destabilized the governing coalition and potentially set the stage for a return to right-wing rule. The governing coalition (KO-PL2050-PSL-Lewica) is experiencing unprecedented internal tu...
Inflation finally in its bounds around the target. Wages accelerate?
POLAND · In Brief · 31 Jul 2025
Today, Statistics Poland showed flash inflation numbers for July (they will be revised by mid-August). As expected, CPI fell from 4.1% y/y in June to 3.1% in July. While it was a sizeable change, and inflation finally got back to the permissible bounds of fluctuations around the target, the drop ...
June economic updates and some insights into the performance of Polish manufacturing
POLAND · Report · 30 Jun 2025
Poland’s economy in mid-2025 is walking a fine line: inflation is cooling but remains sticky, public investment is accelerating even as private capital lags, and manufacturing is showing faint signs of recovery despite mixed sentiment and faltering export demand. In this report, we look at the la...
Webinar replay - Poland election results: Political and policy implications
POLAND · Report · 13 Jun 2025
The election of Karol Nawrocki will usher in changes for Poland. What is the new administration's likely impact on policy over the next two and a half years and beyond? What does the outcome mean for the course of Polish politics? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar fea...
Slide Presentation - Poland Election Results: Political and Policy Implications
POLAND · Presentation · 11 Jun 2025
The election of Karol Nawrocki will usher in changes for Poland. What is the new administration's likely impact on policy over the next two and a half years and beyond? What does the outcome mean for the course of Polish politics? View the slide presentation from our webinar, "Poland Election Re...
Nawrocki will be the next Polish president. The hopes of the government coalition weaken.
POLAND · In Brief · 02 Jun 2025
The election night on June 1st was very stressful, as the initial results were on the edge. The first exit polls showed a slight advantage for Trzaskowski (0.6 pp at 9:00 pm), but the two subsequent late exit polls during the night showed a slight advantage for Nawrocki. However, the early mornin...
Trzaskowski wins (?) the first round by a tiny margin according to exit polls. The second will likely be lost.
POLAND · In Brief · 18 May 2025
According to the exit polls, Rafał Trzaskowski won the first round of presidential elections today. We expected this win (if confirmed by the actual results on Monday or Tuesday), but the exit polls give him only 30.8% vs 29.1% for Nawrocki. The actual election results may be even closer. In our ...
Disinflation and weak growth, revisions of fiscal plans, and volatility in politics
POLAND · Report · 06 May 2025
Inflation in Poland shows signs of easing, and expectations of interest rate cuts are high. Economic recovery remains sluggish, with weak retail sales, manufacturing output, and most confidence indicators. The government has adjusted fiscal plans due to lower tax revenues, increasing the deficit ...
Trzaskowski maintains a stable lead, but uncertainty is high. The prospects for institutional reforms and parliamentary elections.
POLAND · Report · 11 Apr 2025 · 1 response
This report addresses recent poll results, discussing the potential outcome of the elections' first and second rounds. We discuss the quality of the poll results based on recent results and historical outcomes, hidden supporters, and the role of the undecided. We also describe the impact of recen...
Health tax on entrepreneurs lowered (or not). MPC: Has Glapiński just changed his view?
POLAND · In Brief · 07 Apr 2025
News on the health tax After a lengthy disagreement amongst the coalition members (with the left opposing the law), the parliament has proposed a law to lower the health tax on the self-employed. Starting January 1, 2026, the new system will consist of flat-rate and percentage-based parts. The fl...
Still a plateau? MPC arguments continue to weaken
POLAND · In Brief · 31 Mar 2025
Today’s flash release of inflation for March 2025 by Statistics Poland shows the same 4.9% year-on-year (y/y) for the third consecutive month. Our estimate of the core inflation in March stands at 3.5% y/y (net of food, energy and fuel prices). As far as the components of inflation are concerned,...
Monetary policy in the shadow of elections. A look at confidence indicators.
POLAND · Report · 17 Mar 2025
The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) has maintained a hawkish stance, emphasizing persistent inflationary pressures driven by rising energy prices, food costs, and services. Its March 12 decision to hold interest rates steady reflects an ongoing belief that inflationary trends remain a concern. The ...
No breakthrough in the "Year of Breakthroughs". Is there disinflation?
POLAND · In Brief · 19 Feb 2025 · 1 response
Governments ambitious (?) investment plans This text borrows from an article that Jan Hagemejer published with CASE's Andrzej Robaszewski on Monday in a Polish leading newspaper – Rzeczpospolita. Introduction On February 10, 2025, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk unveiled an economic plan titled...