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Trzaskowski maintains a stable lead, but uncertainty is high. The prospects for institutional reforms and parliamentary elections.
POLAND · Report · 11 Apr 2025 · 1 response

This report addresses recent poll results, discussing the potential outcome of the elections' first and second rounds. We discuss the quality of the poll results based on recent results and historical outcomes, hidden supporters, and the role of the undecided. We also describe the impact of recen...

Health tax on entrepreneurs lowered (or not). MPC: Has Glapiński just changed his view?
POLAND · In Brief · 07 Apr 2025

News on the health tax After a lengthy disagreement amongst the coalition members (with the left opposing the law), the parliament has proposed a law to lower the health tax on the self-employed. Starting January 1, 2026, the new system will consist of flat-rate and percentage-based parts. The fl...

Still a plateau? MPC arguments continue to weaken
POLAND · In Brief · 31 Mar 2025

Today’s flash release of inflation for March 2025 by Statistics Poland shows the same 4.9% year-on-year (y/y) for the third consecutive month. Our estimate of the core inflation in March stands at 3.5% y/y (net of food, energy and fuel prices). As far as the components of inflation are concerned,...

Monetary policy in the shadow of elections. A look at confidence indicators.
POLAND · Report · 17 Mar 2025

The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) has maintained a hawkish stance, emphasizing persistent inflationary pressures driven by rising energy prices, food costs, and services. Its March 12 decision to hold interest rates steady reflects an ongoing belief that inflationary trends remain a concern. The ...

No breakthrough in the "Year of Breakthroughs". Is there disinflation?
POLAND · In Brief · 19 Feb 2025 · 1 response

Governments ambitious (?) investment plans This text borrows from an article that Jan Hagemejer published with CASE's Andrzej Robaszewski on Monday in a Polish leading newspaper – Rzeczpospolita. Introduction On February 10, 2025, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk unveiled an economic plan titled...

Growth performance updates for 2024. Has inflation been slowing down? A harsh review from the OECD.
POLAND · In Brief · 05 Feb 2025

(Some) data for 2024 are available Statistics Poland has recently produced a flash estimate of GDP and some of the GDP components for the whole year. This clears some of the uncertainty about the behavior of significant growth drivers. In particular, one can see that while we do not have complete...

Webinar replay and slide presentation: Poland - Economic trends, political shifts, and the path forward
POLAND · Report · 31 Jan 2025

As part of the GlobalSource Partners' Poland research service launch, we invite you to listen to the replay of a webinar on the country's outlook featuring Jan Hagemejer, one of the world’s leading authorities on Poland’s macroeconomics, international trade and structural issues. What drives ...

EU growth champion performs but challenges loom
POLAND · Report · 15 Jan 2025

Poland’s growth over the last three decades has been unprecedented at around 4% on average. It has been driven by fast productivity growth, trade liberalization, FDI inflows, competitive wage levels, diversified industry, a large pool of competent workers, as well as a stable institutional enviro...

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