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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: With only marginal shifts in GEA-ISA’s latest presidential race poll, Xóchitl faces major challenges in the final 10 weeks
MEXICO · Report · 18 Mar 2024

President López Obrador’s approval rating has fallen for a second consecutive quarter, and opposition presidential nominee Xóchitl Gálvez recouped three points of voting intentions, according to the latest GEA-ISA nationwide quarterly poll of registered voters. Mexico was only 24 hours into the g...

Economics: Revenue shortfalls and accelerating spending again squeeze public finances, with further deterioration foreseeable this year
MEXICO · Report · 12 Mar 2024

Public balances (budgetary, primary and total financial requirements) experienced a significant deterioration in the first month of the year that was in line with the trend of recent months. Although monthly balances tend to be marked by significant volatility, the factors that determined the lat...

Politics: Amid signs the race is tightening, uncertainty as to the direction a Sheinbaum government might take
MEXICO · Report · 12 Mar 2024

Now that the final leg of the 2024 presidential election campaign is underway, much remains up in the air. Polls continue to offer strikingly different views of the direction in which voter preferences are trending, with many showing the race tightening, and overall, tending to dispel any thesis ...

Politics: Continuing US leaks about alleged narco money in AMLO’s campaigns heighten tensions and raise more questions
MEXICO · Report · 04 Mar 2024

An article in the February 20 issue of The New York Times, under the byline of the paper’s chief correspondent in Mexico, revealed the existence of an informal investigation by officials from an unspecified US government agency of allegations of donations by drug cartel leaders to AMLO's successf...

Economics: Moody’s downgrades as Pemex 2023 results show further deterioration of its performance and balance sheet
MEXICO · Report · 04 Mar 2024

Pemex’s 2023 results showed slight upticks in some operating numbers but nothing that could minimize the extent to which its financial indicators continued to fuel doubts as to the company's medium-term viability. This point was underscored by just the latest in a long stream of ratings and outlo...

Politics: Pro-Xóchitl civic groups are revitalized by the latest pro-democracy protest with the general election campaign start just days away
MEXICO · Report · 26 Feb 2024 · 1 response

Hundreds of thousands of citizens took to the streets of Mexico City and well over a over a hundred other cities here and abroad on February 18 to protest against AMLO’s constitutional reform proposals designed to nullify Mexican democracy and keep the governing Morena party in power. It was the ...

Economics: The outlook remains mixed judging by the latest data, with continuing challenges in manufacturing and domestic goods consumption
MEXICO · Report · 26 Feb 2024

Indicators released over the past month once again showed growth, but the latest GDP data confirmed that although the Mexican economy continues to expand, it decelerated in the last quarter and especially during December. Moreover, three quarters of manufacturing branches are contracting, and eve...

Politics: Widely divergent poll numbers and a potential hidden vote complicate the picture as some surveys show Xóchitl rebounding
MEXICO · Report · 20 Feb 2024

Since September, when the de facto presidential campaigns of Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez began, many of the country’s polling firms have showed the Morena nominee way out front. The Oraculus website’s average reading of major polls has detected virtually no movement in the voting intenti...

Economics: Reform proposals will not pass in the current Congress but form the key piece of a longer-term political plan by AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 20 Feb 2024

As analyzed in last week's Political Outlook, on February 5 President López Obrador unveiled a package of 18 constitutional and two legal reform proposals, ostensibly with the intention of having them discussed and approved in Congress. But as there is no possibility of these initiatives being pa...

Economics: Recent economic data anticipate early 2024 slowdown
MEXICO · Report · 13 Feb 2024

Preliminary fourth-quarter GDP figures and recently released November and December economic activity indicators point to a slowdown in the early months of 2024 in the face of the contraction trend in manufacturing and the high comparison posed by a rally in construction activity that we estimate ...

Politics: 20 reform proposals foreshadow less democracy and more years of AMLO rule
MEXICO · Report · 12 Feb 2024

On February 5, the anniversary of Mexico’s Constitution, which emerged from the Mexican Revolution, President López Obrador sent Congress a package of 18 constitutional and two legal reforms he says are aimed at rewriting articles introduced during the neoliberal or “neoporfirist” period. This ti...

Politics: More evidence of how organized crime, politicians, business enterprises and officials interact in Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 05 Feb 2024

In this issue we continue the analysis we began last week in these pages with Part One of our analysis of violence, elections and political control, addressing the interrelated questions of organized crime, its effect on local governments and authorities, and politically motivated violence on the...

Economics: Immediate 2023 public finance results confirm there were no major departures from trends of the previous year
MEXICO · Report · 05 Feb 2024

The gradual but systematic deterioration of public finances continued to unfold over the course of 2023. The results came as no surprise, as the 2023 numbers had been anticipated throughout most of 2023. However, the way some components are trending is troubling: increasingly negative public bala...

Politics: Violence, elections and political control—Part One
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2024

In this issue of the Political Outlook we take a look at the interrelated questions of the presence of organized crime, its effect on local governments and authorities, and politically motivated violence on the part of such criminal gangs. The bottom line is that the expansion of organized crime...

Economics: Data in recent weeks show internal demand leading strong growth, core prices fanning inflation and non-automotive manufacturing falling
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2024

January delivered further evidence that the Mexican economy performed better in 2023 than had been expected thanks in large part to a resurgence of the construction sector. This sector has benefitted from the combination of massive government outlays for its signature infrastructure projects and ...

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