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Economics: Year-end results confirm the latest episode in the ongoing deterioration of public finances, with no end in sight
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

A profound deterioration of public finances played out in 2024, as we had anticipated as far back as when we analyzed the economic package projected for last calendar year that was published in September 2023. The year 2024 brought troubling trends in revenue, as well as in the degree of growth a...

Politics: Sheinbaum concentrates decision making in a strong, all-powerful presidency
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

While President Claudia Sheinbaum has succeeded in rallying broad support in response to Donald Trump’s threats on tariffs, migration, and national sovereignty, the fact remains that her policies and orientation represent a continuity with AMLO’s unipersonal style of governing. Her decisions, in ...

Slide presentation - North America Trade War: Implications for Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 13 Feb 2025

Get insight into the tariff issues between the U.S. and Mexico with the slide presentation from our webinar "North America Trade War: Implications for Mexico". The US administration agreed to pause the tariffs originally scheduled to take effect in early February for Canada and Mexico for 30 day...

Economics: Implications of an eventual imposition of tariffs on Mexican products
MEXICO · Report · 10 Feb 2025

The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on February 1 were paused by the White House for a month as of February 3, conditioned on the "effectiveness" of measures to be implemented by the Mexican government to control the flow of drugs, mainly fentanyl, and the entry of migrants into the US. However,...

Politics: Trump escalates threats against Mexico, including direct intervention against cartels
MEXICO · Report · 10 Feb 2025

Mexico is closely and apprehensively watching developments in Washington given U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican exports to the United States and talk of possible intervention against drug cartels. At the last minute, the tariff threat was averted, for 30 day...

Politics: Judicial reform running into serious obstacles with the election of judges just four months away
MEXICO · Report · 03 Feb 2025

Morena and the Fourth Transformation’s “Judicial Reform” is encountering major obstacles in its implementation. The reform, based on the popular election of Supreme Court justices, judges, and magistrates on a federal, state, and local level, is viewed as a way of eliminating what has been the ma...

Economics: Activity slowdown projected to continue and deepen in 2025
MEXICO · Report · 03 Feb 2025

The 4Q24 economic indicators point to a continued and deepening slowdown for 2025. 4Q GDP clocked in at a lackluster seasonally adjusted annual 0.6%. This result brought 2024 GDP growth to 1.5%, in line with estimates and less than half the 2023 result. We project weak 0.3% GDP growth for 2025 t...

Economics: Some general implications on the Mexican economy of Trump's executive orders
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jan 2025

Some of the threats made against Mexico by then-candidate Donald Trump during his presidential campaign were converted into executive orders on the day he was inaugurated. He persists in his threats to impose an additional 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, and 60% on imports from China. However, t...

Politics: Mexico responds to Trump’s initial measures, but is the government up for the challenge?
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jan 2025

Donald Trump’s first measures upon assuming office on January 20 came as no surprise to Mexico, and the Mexican government and society as a whole almost unanimously condemns Trump’s tough and aggressive anti-immigrant stance. President Claudia Sheinbaum’s approach has been on multiple levels: con...

Politics: Trump’s threats cast a shadow over the Mexican outlook
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2025

Supporters of Claudia Sheinbaum jammed Mexico City’s Zocalo square on January 12th for a rally to mark her 100 days in office. The new President’s speech centered on several key points: continuity with AMLO’s project and policies and a rejection of a return to the neoliberal past; major achieveme...

Economics: Signs of progress in Sheinbaum’s Plan Mexico but excessive optimism and other faults of past years continue to predominate
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2025

Plan Mexico: a National Strategy for Industrialization and Shared Prosperity, which the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum unveiled on January 13, clearly marks a step in the right direction in terms of planning. Complete with a mission and goals for 2030, actions for January-April 202...

Economics: Indicators for October and November confirm a more pronounced deceleration likely to extend well into 2025
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jan 2025 · 1 response

The seasonally adjusted 0.3% yoy drop in activity the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) registered for October marked its first outright contraction since early 2021. The latest result marked an extension of the slowing trend that began in early 2Q 2024. Services continued to decelerat...

Politics: Sheinbaum crafts a new and different public security policy
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jan 2025

Although economic issues remain the main challenge Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidential administration faces, public security is a close second and perhaps more daunting problem and could be its Achilles heel. What appears clear is that former President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador’s policy of “hugs ...

Economics: Balance of risks skewed to the upside
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2024

The balance of economic risks for next year is skewed to the upside. Several of the risks anticipated in previous months have materialized. Among them are an institutional weakening, fiscal deterioration, lower business confidence to invest in Mexico, and threats to trade and the external economy...

Politics: As challenges grow and the economy weakens, Sheinbaum is at a crossroads
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2024

While Claudia Sheinbaum is basking in high approval ratings, signs point to potential problems ahead that could spell trouble. In her first 100 days in office, the new President has concentrated on getting legislative approval for AMLO’s constitutional amendments, chief among them the Judicial...

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