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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Marcelo Ebrard and the MC party are left charting out increasingly complicated decision trees
MEXICO · Report · 26 Sep 2023

After he lost the final opinion polls that formed the basis of the Morena presidential nomination process, Marcelo Ebrard stated there was no longer any place for him in the governing party and that he, nevertheless, would be on the ballot in 2024. But within a matter of days, it became clear tha...

Economics: Growth in aggregate demand in the 2nd quarter concentrated in total investment and private consumption
MEXICO · Report · 25 Sep 2023

The aggregate supply and demand figures for the second quarter, released on September 18, showed very significant gross fixed capital formation growth in construction and in the imported machinery and equipment component, as well as in private consumption. Within private consumption, very high gr...

Economics: The 2024 budget proposal offers the same administration formula, although holes are increasingly apparent in the gov’t approach
MEXICO · Report · 19 Sep 2023

Earlier this month, as President López Obrador approaches his final year in office, his administration sent Congress a 2024 budget package that was very much true to the tenor of its four previous iterations. It served up the same combination of austerity in many areas of public administration an...

Politics: The administration’s political use of public spending and its implications both today and for the next government
MEXICO · Report · 18 Sep 2023

The structure and distribution of the 2024 expenditure budget confirms a longstanding tradition of governments in Mexico and elsewhere of spending heavily for electoral purposes in the run-up to a major election year. The President's political priorities are perfectly expressed in the distributi...

Economics: Revenue shortfalls and an acceleration of spending ahead of 2024 elections are likely to further squeeze public finances
MEXICO · Report · 12 Sep 2023

Public finances have deteriorated in the last three months. With the presidential elections less than a year away, the administration has been stepping up outlays for social programs and investment in its flagship projects at the same time as there have been public revenue shortfalls as income fr...

Politics: Virtual presidential nominees face multiple challenges as Morena nomination process hits a major speed bump
MEXICO · Report · 12 Sep 2023

The unity pact that all the 4T presidential hopefuls signed on to at the outset of the Morena candidate selection process didn’t survive the irregularities that Marcelo Ebrard called out. It is not yet clear what the former foreign affairs minister’s next move will be, but he has done nothing to ...

Politics: Criminal violence continues largely unabated, at a heavy cost to individuals and entire swaths of the economy
MEXICO · Report · 05 Sep 2023

Although the number of intentional homicides has been falling somewhat in recent years (from a peak daily average of 100.7 in 2020 to 94.8 at last count), the tally remains shockingly high. In fact, in the four and a half years since President López Obrador took office, and facing a little over a...

Economics: GDP growth remained solid through 2Q, with robust secondary sector and GFI data
MEXICO · Report · 05 Sep 2023

GDP growth remained solid through the first half of the year even as the second quarter expansion proved to be marginally less pronounced than analysts had projected and Inegi had calculated in the preliminary estimates it released at the beginning of August. First quarter GDP was also revised ma...

Politics: The Paredes, Gálvez contest for the opposition candidacy has strengthened the alliance; the MC remains on the sidelines to date
MEXICO · Report · 29 Aug 2023

With just over a week to go, the field competing to become the opposition presidential candidate has been narrowed down to a politician of great experience and trajectory who represents the best of the party tradition (the PRI’s Beatriz Paredes), and a fresh and charismatic figure who unites and ...

Economics: Fruitless consultations give way to US and Canada's convening a trade panel over Mexico's restrictions on imports of GM corn
MEXICO · Report · 28 Aug 2023

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) escalated on August 17 its objections to Mexico's curbs on genetically modified corn imports by requesting a dispute arbitration panel to address its objections to Mexico's curbs on imports of genetically modified (GM) white corn for the...

Economics: Unabated tide of remittance inflows stokes consumption but super peso and inflation take their toll
MEXICO · Report · 21 Aug 2023

One of the sources of income that explains the dynamism of consumption in Mexico at the end of 2022 and through the first half of 2023 is the level of remittances that have been flowing in from the United States, which as of June registered an 8.3% annual increase in US currency to total 5.57 bil...

Politics: Presidential nomination battles heat up as it becomes less clear who the future candidates will be just two weeks out
MEXICO · Report · 21 Aug 2023

Claudia Sheinbaum remains the favorite for the Morena presidential nomination and Xóchitl Gálvez for the opposition Broad Front for Mexico (FAM) with just over two weeks to go before the two coalitions that will face off against each other next year choose their respective standard bearers. Howev...

Economics: Poverty declines, incomes rise, yet major social deprivations prevail
MEXICO · Report · 14 Aug 2023

The results of the 2002 National Household Income and Expenditure Survey (ENIGH) were released at the end of July, while this past week the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policies (Coneval) released the poverty figures for the same year, using data from the same survey....

Politics: Sharp debate erupts on the character of free school textbooks, reflecting the political divide
MEXICO · Report · 14 Aug 2023

A major controversy has erupted in Mexico concerning the free textbooks for primary and high school students. The debate is taking place on several levels. On the legal front, there are questions as to whether educators, parents, teachers, were consulted, as mandated by the General Law on Educati...

Economics: Recurring incidents at installations, ratings downgrades underscore the continuing deterioration of Pemex
MEXICO · Report · 08 Aug 2023

Pemex has been the subject of considerable attention from national and international analysts and the news media due to a series of accidents and other events at its facilities and to decisions by Fitch to downgrade Pemex's debt and Moody's to lower its outlook on the company’s securities from st...

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