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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The PT goes on the offensive and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Mar 2026

The Lower House may vote on the Public Security constitutional amendment proposal (PEC). In the economy, attention turns to the release of Brazil’s 2025 GDP. On March 6, the party-switching window will open, allowing members of Congress to change parties without risking the loss of their mandates...

The right’s demonstration drew a smaller crowd than those before Bolsonaro was imprisoned, the House may vote on the Public Security PEC on Wednesday, and the party-switching window opens on Friday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Mar 2026

The demonstration organized by right-wing groups on Sunday (March 1) in several state capitals, dubbed “Wake Up, Brazil,” drew lower turnout compared with rallies held when former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) was not serving his sentence. The largest crowd was recorded on Avenida Paulista in São...

The INSS CPI approved access to Lula’s son’s confidential banking information, the STF resumes adjudication of the payroll tax relief case, and Congress is expected to vote on the public security PEC next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Feb 2026

The government suffered another political setback: the INSS Joint Parliamentary Inquiry Committee (CPMI) approved access to confidential bank, telephone, and tax information of the president’s son, Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as "Lulinha". The session was marked by clashes between government ...

A recent poll reinforced the polarization between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the administration is now focusing on approving the 6x1 PEC, and the Senate approved new guidelines for the petrochemicals sector
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Feb 2026

An Atlas poll released yesterday, February 25, showed the consolidation of a polarized scenario between President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the presidential race. In first-round simulations, Lula appears, depending on the scenario, with between 43% and 47% of intended votes....

The House approved the Redata Bill and the Anti-Gang Bill, the STF will review the injunction issued by Justice Dino on public-sector salaries, and government leaders met yesterday to discuss the salary “perks” issue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Feb 2026

The Lower House approved yesterday, February 24, the Redata bill (PL 278/26), which establishes a Special Tax Regime for Data Center Services. The measure reduces the tax burden on the deployment and modernization chain of data processing centers in the country. The House also approved the Anti-G...

The Anti-Gang Bill should be put to a vote, the president of the CCJC should announce the rapporteur of the 6x1 PEC, and the two leading presidential candidates are facing headwinds
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Feb 2026

The Anti-Gang Bill, which establishes the Legal Framework for Combating Organized Crime, is currently blocking the House agenda and could be voted on this Tuesday. If approved, it will be sent to President Lula for sanction. The president of the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJC), Congress...

Flávio's "moderate Bolsonaro" strategy and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2026

Congress resumes activity this week. In the Lower House, the government is mobilizing around the 6x1 work schedule proposal, the Mercosur–European Union agreement, and the Public Security constitutional amendment. In the Senate, expectations are building regarding the date of Jorge Messias’s conf...

The House will prioritize voting on the Mercosur-EU trade deal, negotiations continue over the vacancy at the TCU, and the Senate may vote on requests to hear from Justices Toffoli and Moraes regarding the Banco Master case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2026

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), said that this week he will prioritize the vote on the trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. The text will be voted on by the Brazilian Representation in the Mercosur Parliament. Negotiations also continue over the...

Justice Toffoli has stepped down as rapporteur of the Banco Master case, a new poll suggests Lula would lose in a runoff among São Paulo voters, and the STF will review a request to extend the dividend distributions deadline
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Feb 2026

Following reports that Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Dias Toffoli may have benefited from payments made by banker Daniel Vorcaro, he has stepped down as rapporteur of the Banco Master case. Justice André Mendonça has been appointed as the new rapporteur. Yesterday, the Paraná Institute also...

A new poll reinforces the polarization between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula and Motta meet to discuss the 6x1 work schedule issue, and tensions are expected to rise in Brasília regarding the Banco Master case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Feb 2026

Yesterday, a new round of the Genial/Quaest presidential polling was released. The poll reinforces the polarized landscape between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula leads in both first- and second-round scenarios. The absence of São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas from the poll...

Discussions on the 6x1 workweek bill continue, the House approved the urgent status request for the Redata bill, and the STF may review the case regarding the TCU’s SecexConsenso secretariat
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Feb 2026

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB), said yesterday that a constitutional amendment is the “best way” to address the reduction of the workweek, as it allows for broader debate. On Monday, Motta submitted the constitutional amendment proposal (PEC) that would eliminate t...

The Federal Police was able to access Vorcaro’s cellphone, Motta submitted the 6x1 proposal to the CCJC, and urgency may also be voted on for the Redata bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2026

The news that the Federal Police managed to break the encryption on the cellphone of Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, generated significant repercussions in Brasília. There is considerable anticipation regarding the information that may be recovered. The President of the Lower House, Hugo M...

Lula enters 2026 in campaign mode and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2026

The week leading up to Carnaval will see reduced activity in Congress. Four new presidential approval and voting polls will be released. In the House, highlights include a vote on urgency status for the Redata bill and consideration of the complementary bill on bank resolution. The government is ...

The House is expected to vote on the urgent status of the bill on Data Centers, four presidential voting polls are expected for release this week, and the STF should analyze a case against the TCU’s new secretariat
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2026

The Lower House is expected to vote this week on an urgent status request for the bill establishing a Tax Regime for Data Centers (Redata), which would create tax incentives for the construction of data centers in Brazil. Four new presidential voting polls are scheduled for release this week. The...

In an interview Lula said that both Haddad and Alckmin have a role to play in São Paulo, Justice Dino ordered the suspension of “extra perks” in the public sector, and next week should be quiet as it precedes Carnaval
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Feb 2026

Yesterday, in an interview with UOL, President Lula said that both Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin have a role to play in São Paulo. Both have so far resisted running for elective office in October, but pressure is mounting. Yesterday, Supreme Court Justice Flá...

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