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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 3
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Brazil Economics databank May 15
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Central America databank May 9
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Chile databank Apr 4
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 3
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 15
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 17
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Hungary databank Apr 18
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India databank Apr 22
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Mexico databank Mar 28
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Panama databank Feb 2
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Peru databank Mar 27
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Philippines databank May 9
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Russia Economics databank May 16
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South Africa databank May 3
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Turkey databank Mar 6
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Ukraine databank Feb 12
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Uruguay databank Mar 27
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Venezuela databank May 6
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: ECONOMIC UPSWINGS AND POL...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Capital Control Relaxation: Forced or Planned?
ARGENTINA · Report · 28 Jan 2014
At yesterday’s daily press conference, Chief of Cabinet Jorge Capitanich, chaperoned by the Head of the local Internal Revenues Service (AFIP) Ricardo Echegaray, gave some details of the new relaxations to capital controls, which were hastily brought forward last Friday after the significant slip...
Peg Ain’t Crawling No More
ARGENTINA · Report · 24 Jan 2014
Two days ago, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) surprised markets by failing to intervene as expected; hence letting the official USDARS rise from 6.93 to 7.14. Yesterday, the spot rate closed at 7.75 after reaching 8.3 in the intraday market, which forced the BCRA to intervene (it sold $180m ...
Coming Soon: Greater Instability
ARGENTINA · Report · 15 Jan 2014
Executive SummaryArgentina is experiencing a typical inflation–devaluation spiral. The government’s fiscal deficit has climbed to 4% of GDP. Monetary issuance to close the gap explains 2013’s 32% expansion of the money base, though net monetary expansion was 22% for the year, due to the contracti...
The Benefit of the Doubt
ARGENTINA · Report · 11 Dec 2013
Executive Summary We wondered before whether the recent appointments suggested a change in economic policy or not. The departure of former Interior Trade Secretary Guillermo Moreno and the appointment of Jorge Capitanich as Chief of Cabinet suggested the possibility of a substantial change. After...
Blowing Hot and Cold at the Same Time: Moreno Resigned, Kicillof Economic Minister
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Nov 2013
As we mentioned in our market brief of October 28[1], there were rumors that Hernán Lorenzino would step down as Economic Minister and be replaced by Vice Minister Axel Kicillof. The rumors speculated that the change would be announced once Cristina Fernández de Kirchner returned from her medical...
The Rumor has been Confirmed: Kicillof is Economic Minister
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 19 Nov 2013
As we mentioned in our market brief on October the 28th, after the mid-term elections, there have been rumors that that Hernán Lorenzino would be stepping down as Economic Minister and being replaced by Vice Minister Axel Kicillof. The rumors were that such change would be announced once Cristina...
A New Ballgame
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 04 Nov 2013
Executive Summary President Cristina Kirchner’s chances of running for a third consecutive termare now nil, after midterm elections October 27th cut her party’s representation in Congress to 32%, from 54% in 2011. The political cycle of Kirchnerism is also over: the new Congress won’t pass the re...
Argentina 2013 Midterm Election Readings
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 28 Oct 2013 · 1 response
When analyzing the preliminary outcome of yesterday’s mid-term elections in Argentina one should focus on two main aspects.1) The government new power balance in the Congress2) The outlook for the 2015 presidential candidates. With respect to the first point: despite a relatively mediocre electo...
Midterm Election Readings
ARGENTINA · Report · 28 Oct 2013
As we mentioned in the Global Source Partner Direct webpage, when analyzing the preliminary outcome of yesterday’s mid-term elections in Argentina one should primarily focus on two main aspects. The government new power balance in the CongressThe outlook for the 2015 presidential candidates With ...
Uncertain Times
ARGENTINA · Report · 02 Oct 2013
This report reviews some factors that are generating political and economic uncertainty for the immediate future. They are the upcoming midterm elections, the legal battle with the holdouts, the dubious 2014 Budget, and the government’s interventionist stance. Although none seems important enough...
Another Brick in the Wall
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 30 Aug 2013
Executive SummaryAmid the collateral damage from a new judicial defeat in the NY courts, this report presents our forecasts for 2013 and 2014. Our main assumption is that the government will try to navigate until 2015 without making the necessary adjustments while, at the same time, avoiding sign...
A new quasi-currency?
ARGENTINA · Report · 22 Jul 2013
Executive SummaryThe latest deterioration of the current account surplus and the need to continue using reserves to substitute instrumented debt amortization with inflation tax, has again triggered some new policies from the government. Among them are the tax amnesty and the acceptance that YPF r...
Q2 Health is an Illusion
ARGENTINA · Report · 11 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryAppreciation of the parallel exchange rate, and a temporary fall in inflation, have moderated economic instability. But inflation and FX dynamics were mostly driven by unsustainable price controls, aggressive FX intervention in the blue-chip swap, and monetary contraction, bolste...