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It's all about politics and the strength of our institutions as Jamaica changes its Finance Minister
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 04 Nov 2024

The long wait of over two months to see who would replace Jamaica’s Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke ended last week, literally as he was at the airport on his way to Washington on Wednesday to take up his new position at the IMF at the very end of October. Prime Minister Andrew Holness announce...

Did the Bank of Jamaica wait too long to cut interest rates? Finance Minister Nigel Clarke moves to IMF at the end of October. Was he the best Finance Minister in the Western Hemisphere?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 26 Aug 2024

At its monetary policy committee (MPC) meetings on the 16th and 19th of August, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) unanimously agreed to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%, effective Wednesday, August 21, 2024. This was the first cut since it began its tightening cycle in 2022, when it rai...

Hurricane Beryl hits breadbasket parish of St. Elizabeth like an "atomic bomb"
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 15 Jul 2024

Just under two weeks ago, on Wednesday, July 3, Hurricane Beryl hit Jamaica with strong winds, rain and powerful waves as a Category 4 storm. Beryl had previously made history as the strongest hurricane ever recorded in July, before it was downgraded from Category 5 to Category 4. While the ca...

Will the Bank of Jamaica pivot avoid a policy mistake? IMF lauds resilience just as Hurricane Beryl approaches
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 01 Jul 2024

In an interesting piece of timing, on Friday, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), in its own words, “pivots to easing monetary policy” just as the IMF lauded Jamaica’s “resilience” reforms literally the day before Beryl was upgraded to a hurricane. The BOJ cited as its reason that the May 2024 annual i...

The local election result is a warning to the ruling JLP despite what appears to be a narrow win
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 01 Mar 2024

While the final count is not quite yet finished for Jamaica’s local government, on Monday, February 26, the ruling JLP (Jamaica Labour Party) appears to have eked a very narrow victory in terms of the number of municipalities it controlled, although a number were effectively tied. Confusingly, bo...

A record of over 9 million tourists is expected to have visited in 2023 as Bahamas repays its Eurobond
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 16 Jan 2024

The Bahamas tourism-driven recovery accelerated in the second half of last year, with international flight and cruise arrivals rising well above their pre-pandemic levels. Bahamas is now expecting well over 9 million tourists to have visited during the calendar year of 2023 once December numbers ...

What are the implications of Jamaica’s first international domestic currency bond offer?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 13 Nov 2023

On November 3, 2023, the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) issued its first Jamaican dollar-linked international bond for J$46.6 billion, or roughly US $300 million. The seven year SEC registered bond had a coupon of 9.625%, and was issued at a slight discount for a yield to maturity of roughly 9.75%. ...

Politics and banking dominate Jamaica’s headlines as silly season begins early
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 08 Aug 2023

In Jamaica, the month of July before the normal August holidays was extremely busy, with the headlines dominated by news in politics. The kick off for the current political near-frenzy was actually the end of June, when an opinion poll released by the Opposition Peoples National Party (PNP) claim...

The Bahamas announces income tax plan while finances improve
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 30 May 2023

A couple of months ago, toward the end of the first quarter, the technocrats at The Bahamas Ministry of Finance appeared “jubilant” as they now all believed they had escaped the need for an IMF program. This optimism appeared to be driven by the strong tourism-led economic recovery and its impact...

A Jamaican miracle
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 27 Feb 2023

A little over two weeks ago, on Friday, February 10, the editor of the Financial Times (FT) Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth, describing Jamaica’s economic turnaround, said “This is as close to a miracle as you are ever likely to see.” His comments were based on the press release on the IMF...

Who stole Usain Bolt's money?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 27 Jan 2023

For over two weeks in Jamaica, there has been only one news story, as both the elites and the man on the street were shocked that global sprinting superstar Usain Bolt now had only US$12,000 in his retirement fund. Bolt, the closest thing Jamaica has had to a national icon since Bob Marley, advis...

Standard & Poor's issues positive annual Jamaica report as Bank of Jamaica continues to tighten local monetary policy
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 17 Oct 2022

On October 5, rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) issued its annual report on the Jamaican economy. In summary, the agency expects the country's economic recovery to continue, supported particularly by tourism. It expects Jamaica to continue to run a small fiscal surplus in the current fiscal y...

The end of the Jamaica bid (for now)
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 19 Jul 2022

The recent collapse of the near 22-year-old support for the Jamaican yield curve from Jamaican buyers, or the so called "Jamaica bid", is worthy of a detailed overview on its own. The timeline really begins with the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) beginning its interest rate tightening cycle in the second ...

Bahamas Article 4 IMF review supports our view that Bahamas economic situation is better than the global markets seem to believe
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · In Brief · 09 May 2022

I have been reviewing The Bahamas economic situation for a number of weeks. I hope to issue a full report soon but a review of the IMF article 4 report will now take priority. I am not going to go through every aspect now, but the bottom line is that the IMF report supports my view that The Baham...

Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke auditions for world's best as William and Kate arrive in Jamaica. His stated agenda - "Reform with ambition"
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 29 Mar 2022

Jamaica’s budget debate was concluded last week by Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke on Tuesday, March 22, just as Prince William and his wife Kate were arriving in Jamaica as part of their three-nation royal visit of Belize, Jamaica and The Bahamas, all of which still have the Queen as their hea...

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