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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A Concerned Central Bank? Don’t Bet On It
COLOMBIA · Report · 19 Feb 2014

The fact that the exchange rate has depreciated by 5.0% in so far this year has made investors nervous. Although this bears no resemblance to the depreciation rates observed in other emerging countries such as Argentina (23.4%) and Turkey (8.4%), and can easily be interpreted as a catching up of ...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Feb 2014

Dilma Maintains Her Lead In A Complex Scenario On Tuesday CNT released a new poll evaluating the Dilma Rousseff administration, as well as the presidential succession. The poll, conducted on February 9-14, is the first poll released in 2014 and has a 2.2 percent margin of error. Approval of the g...

Back to the Seventies
ECUADOR · Forecast · 19 Feb 2014

Executive Summary The economy may have grown 4.5% last year -- 0.5 pp above expectations, though more slowly than in 2012. That would follow a Q3 growth rate of 4.9% y/y, and 1.8% q/q – the highest quarterly growth rate in a year. Oil is the driver of these happy results: oil manufacturing expand...

Medina Strengthens his Hand
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 19 Feb 2014

Executive SummaryPresident Danilo Medina and his team swept the vote in the PLD convention that elected new members for its most powerful bodies. Medina’s followers landed almost all the new posts, in contests for both the central and political committee.The big loser was former President Leonel ...

Feeling the Squeeze
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Feb 2014

As was the case in other emerging markets economies (EMEs) hit by the exodus of capital – due to a reduction of monetary stimulus in the US – the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) swung into action by raising the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% per year in February 2014 (see Gr...

A Late-Year Growth Rebound?
INDIA · Report · 18 Feb 2014

Executive SummaryCPI inflation is slowing, as both the shock INR depreciation delivered to tradeables inflation in mid-2013, and food inflation, are subsiding. This is delivering an optimistic inflation picture, with CPI inflation falling into the single digits for the first time this year.The Re...

Inflation Concerns Come to the Fore
TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2014

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee did not change any of the interest rates today (Graph 1). But the tone of the statement is quite hawkish, in our view, with the very first sentence of the statement devoted to inflation. (“The Committee closely monitors recent deterioration in the inflat...

Has the Final Battle Started?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Feb 2014

Every war has its crucial battle, a battle that will show who is who and what is what. It is difficult to say when it will start and who will win. But it is always clear that after such a battle life will never be the same. It looks that final battle has started in Kyiv. Today protesters marched ...

A Success Story Threatened
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2014

Executive Summary Last Wednesday, Banco de México (Banxico) published its quarterly review of inflation corresponding to the final three months of 2013. In the report, the monetary authority reiterated its opinion that the rise in inflation experienced in January came largely in response to highe...

Political Insights: Week of February 18
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Feb 2014

Great expectations from the market regarding spending cuts to be announced by the government this week, as well as the fiscal target for 2014. The decision is seen as essential for the government to raise the credibility of its economic policy. The first presidential voting intention poll of the ...

Russia to buy $2 billion Ukrainian Eurobonds, Siluanov said
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Feb 2014

Russia will buy $2 billion of Ukrainian Eurobonds this week, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated today. In fact, we treat this news as a double-edged sword. On the one side, it is positive since Russian money will ease tension at the forex and will improve confidence in Ukraine’s sustainabilit...

Outlook for 2014
INDIA · Report · 17 Feb 2014

There was a shock to tradeables inflation owing to the INR depreciation in mid-2013, which has subsided. In recent months, food inflation has also subsided. Put together, this is starting to yield some gains in CPI inflation. RBI is trying to establish an inflation targeting monetary policy frame...

Slowing Real Retail Sales Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Feb 2014

Growth of real retail sales decelerated substantially in 2013. In the restricted sense, sales grew 4.3%, just over half the figure in 2012 (8.4%), while in the augmented sense (including cars and construction materials), growth was 3.6%, less than half the rate (8.0%) in 2012 (Graph 1). In this r...

Political Violence: Episode or New Phase?
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Feb 2014

The opposition’s defeat in the December 2013 municipal elections fueled the debate on the path to power in Venezuela among opposition leaders. Some argue that Venezuela can’t endure five more years with a Maduro government while others believe that the next few years should be devoted to building...

Stubborn Inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Feb 2014

Monthly National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) inflation accelerated in January 2014 to 3.3 percent from 2.2 percent in December 2013. The year-on-year rate closed at 56.2 percent (56.1 percent last year). Inflation usually slows in January reflecting seasonal decline in demand and retail sales. Th...

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