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GULF WEEKLY: Floods batter Gulf, Israel-Iran clash may be over, Microsoft invests $1.5bn in G42, Kuwait has a new PM
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Apr 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: *Iran and Israel exchanged carefully calibrated attacks and have hopefully come to a pause. *Oil prices briefly spiked today on the Israeli attack but settled after more details emerged. *The US vetoed Palestinian UN member...

Tension between the government and Congress increases, the government is expected to submit the bills on Tax Reform regulation next week, and Congress should analyze presidential vetoes next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Apr 2024

This week was tumultuous from a political point of view. The new conflicts between the government and Congress are worrisome. In the House, the tension is between the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and the Minister of the Institutional Relations Secretariat, Alexandre Padilha. In ot...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Diamond-turbocharged growth in Armenia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 19 Apr 2024

Armenia was the fourth fastest-growing economy in the world last year (8.7 percent in 2023), but the heady pace of expansion had been slowing down to around 5-6 percent YoY by Sep/Oct last year when a sudden surge of economic activity resulted in much accelerated growth. Indeed, over Nov-Feb GDP ...

Power supply dangerously close to critical condition
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 18 Apr 2024 · 2 responses

The Electricity and Gas Regulatory Commission (CREG) issues on a regular basis a reference daily path for the National Interconnected System reservoirs’ aggregate level. This path is considered to be the minimum required to guarantee that power supply meets demand; should the aggregate level fall...

Georgians protest against foreign agents' bill
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Apr 2024

On April 17 thousands of people demonstrated near parliament. They want the government to drop the foreign agents' bill. Western governments and Georgians civil society have said that it will have a chilling effect on dissidents and human rights. Critics say the bill is based on its Russian equiv...

The Senate approved the update to the Income Tax exemption range, Minister Haddad called for an international tax on the rich, and the São Paulo City Council approved the bill that privatizes Sabesp
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Apr 2024

Yesterday the Senate approved, in a symbolic vote, the Executive Office’s bill that expands the Income Tax exemption range to a monthly income of up to two minimum wages (R$2,824). In the United States, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said that the government will propose a declaration on intern...

The end of interest rate cuts is near
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Apr 2024

Our new quarterly forecast changes moderately from the previous one, issued in January. We still expect considerable economic recovery in 2024, but we scaled back our GDP forecast given the weakness of European industry, especially car manufacturing, and the longer-than-expected time required for...

Russian peacekeepers will withdraw from Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Apr 2024

On April 17 Putin's spokesman made the announcement. After the 2020 war Russia mediated peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The peace agreement provided for 1,500 Russian troops to keep the peace in Nagorno-Karabakh. The region is legally Azerbaijani but was then ethnically almost exclusively A...

Requiem for the Fiscal Framework
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Apr 2024

The recently proposed Budget Directives Law (LDO) revealed, intentionally or not, the limits of the so-called New Fiscal Framework. This is not due to either of the primary result for 2024 (kept at the same level suggested by the bimonthly revision of March) or even the reduction of the primary s...

The disagreements between Lira and the government have increased, the session of Congress to review presidential vetoes was postponed to next week, and the vote on the privatization of Sabesp should take place today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Apr 2024

The disagreements between Arthur Lira (PP-AL) and the government have increased. Yesterday, the government dismissed Wilson César de Lira Santos, Lira's cousin, from the position of Regional Superintendent of Incra in Alagoas. Last week, Lira called the Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexan...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Apr 2024

Apr 4 Sinopec: The Chinese company Sinopec has officially become a co-founder of Silleno LLP, which is involved in the construction of a polyethylene plant in Kazakhstan. Apr 6 President: Mr. Tokayev described the current floods as the biggest disaster in the past 80 years, both in terms of scale...

Economy grows steadily in March, albeit with some moderation
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Apr 2024

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the short-term indicator (a sort of a monthly proxy for GDP) grew y-o-y by 4.7% and 4.1% in 1Q24 and March. General trends remained the same, i.e., economic growth remained uneven by sectors. Industrial output increased over the same time frames by ...

On the road to normality? Growth nears potential and inflation is under control, but currency depreciation and interest rates are high
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 16 Apr 2024

Q1 2024 ends with some signs that the Dominican economy is on its way to achieving trend values for key economic variables, such as growth and inflation. In January-February the average interannual growth of economic activity was 5.4%, close to potential growth, and inflation in Q1 was 3.33% y/y,...

Floods threaten Russian cities
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Apr 2024

Flooding has gotten worse in Russia and Kazakhstan in mid April. An unusually early and warm spring caused snow and ice to melt abruptly. The premature and sudden thaw means that rivers have burst their banks. Heavy rains have aggravated the situation. The Ishim River, which flows from Kazakhstan...

The government submitted the Budget guidelines bill, the regulation of Tax Reform has been postponed to April 22, and Pacheco said the complementary law on state debt will be submitted this month
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Apr 2024

The government sent the Budget guidelines bill to the National Congress yesterday, which includes the parameters of the 2025 Federal Budget. The fiscal target for next year was reduced from 0.5% to 0% of GDP. Yesterday, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, confirmed that the regulation of Ta...

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