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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Boluarte fights to boost her popularity; pension reform proposal advances; real GDP to fall 0.5% in 2023, then rebound 1.7% in 2024
PERU · Report · 24 Oct 2023 · 1 response

We discuss three key topics in this report. First, we assess the attempt by President Dina Boluarte to boost her public popularity, and discuss the deinstitutionalization of Peruvian society, with reference to recent opinion polls. Next we examine Congress’s proposal to allow workers to further w...

MNB base rate down 75 bps to 12.25% today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Oct 2023

Neither us, expecting 12%, nor the median analyst expectation of 12.5% have proven to be right. The reduction of the monthly pace of the sterilisation rate cut seems to be meant to indicate that: - for the next few months, the yoy inflation rate will still very likely fall following a steep trend...

Economics: New stimulus measures for export-oriented companies could fall short of the need to more fully exploit nearshoring
MEXICO · Report · 24 Oct 2023

The Federal Government published a decree on October 11 awarding fiscal stimulus to 10 key sectors of the country’s export industry, consisting of immediate deductions of investments in new fixed assets during the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. This measure seeks to promote investment and...

MIF plot thickens
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Oct 2023

It’s not really a social blunder, that economic faux pas with enormous political fallout called the Maharlika Investment Fund (MIF) of the Philippines. It’s an economic faux pas because the Philippine authorities rammed through Congress the bill creating the Philippines’ first ever investment fun...

A full agenda in the final stretch of the year and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2023

Senator Eduardo Braga will submit his report on Tax Reform. The Senate Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) will vote on the extension of the payroll tax exemption. The House will vote on the offshore and exclusive funds bill. The government will submit a bill to Congress to replace MP nº 1,185 (ICMS...

Politics: Morena and the opposition alliance face difficult choices as they pick gubernatorial candidates
MEXICO · Report · 23 Oct 2023

The election next June will be the largest Mexico has ever experienced with the more than 3,500 offices to be filled, including President and both chamber of Congress. Polls currently show the incumbent Morena party is favored to retain the presidency, and while its goal of achieving a two-thirds...

The youngest president ever
ECUADOR · Forecast · 23 Oct 2023

Daniel Noboa, at 35, is the youngest candidate ever to win a presidential election in Ecuador. His performance in the first presidential debate raised votes from young people, and this together with a strong 50% vote against the Correistas, helped him to succeed. He is a businessman in charge of ...

Moldova moving away from Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Oct 2023

On October 17 Canada sanctioned 9 Russian people and 6 Russian TV channels that it said had been trying to undermine Moldova's independence and democracy. The people sanctioned are allegedly connected to a Moldovan oligarch, Vlad Plahotniuc. He used to lead the Democratic Party and allegedly disa...

Slower Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Oct 2023

Since peaking in April 2023, the IBC-Br has been decelerating, and in August it declined by 0.8% (Graph 1), confirming the information on the lower real retail sales, in both the restricted (0.2%) and augmented definitions (1.3%). In turn, services declined by 0.9%, while industry grew by 0.4%. A...

Rates on hold, with a fairly hawkish tone
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Oct 2023

As expected, rates remained on hold today at a level of 4.75%. In the press conference the Governor stressed that as long as Israel's risk premium remains elevated and shekel depreciation pressures continue, monetary loosening is off the table, despite decelerating domestic demand. The Governor a...

Senator Braga will submit his report on Tax Reform on October 24, the House may vote on the offshore and exclusive funds bill, and Congress will analyze presidential vetoes on October 26
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2023

Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM), rapporteur of the Tax Reform Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) at the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) of the Senate, will submit his report on Tuesday, October 24. According to the agenda, the vote in the CCJ is scheduled for November 7. This week, t...

Proposed 2024 budget includes more interest payments, and less investment
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 23 Oct 2023

A first look at the proposed 2024 budget does not seem to show substantial changes from the budgets adopted since 2021, with a deficit target of 3.1% of GDP. But with an expected reduction in the tax burden for 2024, to 15% from 15.8%, fiscal space to address higher debt interest payments (3.6% o...

Yet another surprise in the presidential election
ARGENTINA · Report · 23 Oct 2023

Although, as expected, no presidential candidate won the election in the first round, and the two contenders will be Sergio Massa and Javier Milei, the fact that Massa managed to lead the electoral results by a significant margin was unexpected. While Bullrich and Milei signaled a potential elect...

Weakening shekel due to escalation concerns is the main BoI consideration
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Oct 2023

This report was written prior to the Bank of Israel’s October 23, 2023 rate-hold decision, which we forecast in the report. Geopolitics: Last week witnessed further skirmishes in Israel’s North against Hizballah, with mortar fire into Israel and attempts to penetrate Israel so far resulting i...

Analysts lowered rate cut expectations ahead of tomorrow's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Oct 2023

The regular monthly rate-setting meeting is due tomorrow. Following a five-month long series of uniform 100bps cuts, analysts now have a median expectation of only 50bps for the monthly reduction of the sterilisation rate, which is now the base rate. So, the rate would go to 12.5%. This is the re...

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