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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The House voted on the fiscal framework yesterday, the House will vote on the minimum wage MP today, and the Senate CAE will vote on the CARF bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Aug 2023
Yesterday, the House concluded voting on the fiscal framework. As anticipated, the deputies maintained the constitutional fund of the federal district and Fundeb exceptions in the text. Spending on science and technology will have to comply with the spending limit. Today, the House will vote on a...
The Sultan woos the Sheikhs: Turkey’s improved GCC relations bolster external financing
TURKEY · Report · 22 Aug 2023 · 1 response
This report is a joint publication co-authored by Atilla Yesilada and our GCC analyst, Justin Alexander. * Turkey received a $5bn Saudi deposit in March and possibly undisclosed support from UAE and/or Qatar that averted a currency crisis ahead of the May elections and helped keep Erdogan in p...
The Sultan woos the Sheikhs: Turkey’s improved GCC relations bolster external financing
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Aug 2023
This report is a joint publication co-authored by Justin Alexander and our Turkey political analyst, Atilla Yesilada. * Turkey received a $5bn Saudi deposit in March and possibly undisclosed support from UAE and/or Qatar that averted a currency crisis ahead of the May elections and helped keep...
Wagner recruiting for missions for Africa
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Aug 2023
On August 21 Yevgeny Prigozhin released a video on the Telegram social media channel calling for men to volunteer. He said that Wagner will ''make Russia even greater on all continents.'' He said it would liberate Africa. It is unclear where Prigozhin was when he made the video in a desert locati...
The House should vote on the fiscal framework today or tomorrow, the House may also vote on the minimum wage MP, and the Senate CCJ holds a public hearing on Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Aug 2023
Yesterday, after a meeting with leaders, the president of the House assured that the fiscal framework will be put to a vote this week in the House. The vote could take place today or tomorrow. The House may also vote on a provisional measure on the increase of the minimum wage and the changes to ...
Is there a big leap in electronics exports?
INDIA · Report · 22 Aug 2023
Most global firms want to do less in China. This has created possibilities for the global supply chain to shift away from China. This has raised hope for India in a “China+1” sourcing strategy for many global corporations. In the aggregate, the gains in FDI or merchandise exports are small. In...
Centrist parties hit by accusations; economy enters recession; BCRP to cut rates in October
PERU · Report · 22 Aug 2023 · 2 responses
In this report, we offer an update on the Peruvian political scene; on the country’s economic performance; and on the timing of the first Central Bank rate cut. We argue that, while political risk has eased, President Dina Boluarte remains isolated and unpopular. The political capital of the two ...
Agreement reached to create an opposition alliance for 2024 elections
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Aug 2023
Today the three main opposition parties of the Dominican Republic, PLD, FP and PRD, announced the creation of the opposition alliance Rescate RD (DR Rescue) to present common candidacies in the next 2024 elections. The agreement proposes 4 common candidacies to positions in the Senate of the Repu...
Economics: Unabated tide of remittance inflows stokes consumption but super peso and inflation take their toll
MEXICO · Report · 21 Aug 2023
One of the sources of income that explains the dynamism of consumption in Mexico at the end of 2022 and through the first half of 2023 is the level of remittances that have been flowing in from the United States, which as of June registered an 8.3% annual increase in US currency to total 5.57 bil...
Vote on the new fiscal framework and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2023
The House should vote on the new fiscal framework this week. In the Senate, the CARF bill should be put to a vote and the Tax Reform proposal should be discussed. President Lula participates in BRICS meetings and he should only make changes to his ministerial team after his return (27). This ...
GUATEMALA: New government, same challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 21 Aug 2023
On August 20th, Bernardo Arevalo won the runoff presidential election with his party Semilla. He will be sworn as president for a four-year term in January 2024. This was the first time Arevalo, 64, fought for the presidency, which he achieved by beating former first lady Sandra Torres. Torres (6...
The (Mis)trust in the Quality of the Fiscal Framework
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Aug 2023
With the modifications made in the Senate, the text of the fiscal framework has returned to the Chamber of Deputies for approval, so the final wording is still unknown. Nevertheless, it is already known that the increase, in real terms, of primary spending (to occur in an interval between 0.6% an...
Politics: Presidential nomination battles heat up as it becomes less clear who the future candidates will be just two weeks out
MEXICO · Report · 21 Aug 2023
Claudia Sheinbaum remains the favorite for the Morena presidential nomination and Xóchitl Gálvez for the opposition Broad Front for Mexico (FAM) with just over two weeks to go before the two coalitions that will face off against each other next year choose their respective standard bearers. Howev...
Pithy data commentary
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Aug 2023
This is a summary of key data releases and news in the CCA: *Armenia: Core inflation in July drops to lowest since early 2020. *Armenia: Bond market reacts nimbly to rate cuts. *Armenia: Remittances in June entrench trend of normalization to pre-2022 levels. *Azerbaijan: Central Bank relaxe...
Slowing inflation could delay further tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Aug 2023
1. Underlying inflation has moderated in recent months, pushing up the shekel depreciation threshold triggering a monetary response. 2. Second quarter GDP numbers point to deceleration. 3. There are growing signs of labor market slackness.