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Russia attacks Ukrainian Danube ports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jul 2023

On July 24 Russian drones hit the grain storage facilities on the longest river in Europe. The drones used are allegedly Iranian-made Shaheds. 3 out of the 15 drones used were destroyed. Ukraine has weak air defense in this area, which up until now has not been targeted. 4 people were injured in ...

Judicial measure passes resulting in market volatility
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Jul 2023

Yesterday, the Israeli parliament passed the bill to cancel the reasonableness standard, the first part of a planned judicial overhaul. The bill passed by a vote of 64-0 in the Knesset. All opposition lawmakers walked out as the vote was taking place. The bill takes away the Supreme Court’s power...

Kazakhstan macro: Economy likely to grow over 5% in 2023
KAZAKHSTAN · Forecast · 24 Jul 2023

Kazakhstan's GDP may grow by over 5.0%, and domestic demand will be the main driver of economic growth. One can expect a strong increase in investment activity given the need for the country to diversify its geographical structure of foreign trade. An inflow of foreign capital will support this. ...

Politics: Xóchitl vaults into the lead for the opposition nomination but major obstacles lurk ahead
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jul 2023

As we have noted in recent weeks, Xóchitl Gálvez’s decision to jump into the race to become the opposition presidential candidate has shaken up a contest that had already started to evolve thanks to the efforts of civil society groups and others that brought hundreds of thousands into the streets...

In search of revenue and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jul 2023

This week's Talking Points: In search of revenue: The Ministry of Finance is working on a series of instruments to increase tax collection. Some matters are already in progress in the National Congress, others should be sent in August, and others should await the completion of Tax Reform, c...

Execution Of The “Fiscal Framework”: The First Signs
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jul 2023

According to estimates by the National Treasury, to achieve the target of a null primary result in 2024, it will be necessary to obtain additional revenue of R$ 160 billion. The Treasury also estimates that even if this additional revenue is not attained, the gross debt will stabilize at 81% of G...

This is the final week of recess, Petrobras is expected to disclose its new dividend payment policy, and the PP and Republicanos should be given one ministry each
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jul 2023

This is the final week of recess for the judiciary and legislature, which resume their activities on Tuesday of next week. But some matters deserve attention in the coming days. Petrobras is expected to disclose its new dividend payment policy to shareholders. The company is expected to pay less ...

Topic of the week: The three intractable issues that could still torpedo a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Jul 2023

Due to some travelling plans, we are issuing our Caucasus and Central Asia Weekly earlier rather than later in the week. While we have focused in recent publications on core macro issues in the region related to growth, external positions and currencies, we now veer away from the beaten path and ...

Markets will react to the judicial legislation developments this week
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Jul 2023

1. Markets will react today to the judicial legislation developments and possible compromise. 2. The labor market is showing initial signs of slack, with the number of employed declining in June. 3. The BoI Composite Index of the economy is pointing to steady growth on strong exports and cr...

Sterilisation rate is expected to drop to 15% tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2023

The Monetary Council is set to meet tomorrow. Analysts in Portfolio.hu's poll unanimously expect a 100 bps reduction of the O/N deposit rate, the effective sterilisation rate, to 15% on this occasion. The poll's median expectation for December is 10.5%, based on the generally shared optimistic fo...

Moscow and Crimea hit by Ukrainian drones
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jul 2023

On July 24 Russia announced that Ukrainian drones hit two buildings in Moscow. One of them was close to the Defense Ministry. It is not known what the target was. Russia said it show down the drones, and they hit buildings while falling. Until 2023 Ukrainian drones had not reached Moscow. It is w...

The markets will react to the legislation developments this week
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Jul 2023

The markets will react the legislation developments this week 24.7.23 The financial markets are optimistic regarding a compromise Last week witnessed an upward correction in local markets, including the bond market and FX. This could reflect an expectation for a positive compromise on the judicia...

Russia attacks Ukrainian ports with missiles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jul 2023

On July 12 Odesa was hit for the fifth consecutive day. It is the biggest port in Ukrainian hands. Russia ended the Black Grain Initiative on July 19. It seems that Russia is trying to make it impossible for Ukraine to export grain even without the BSGI. There has been talk of the ships of neutra...

Waiting for the Inflation Report
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jul 2023

This is another econ-only report, as the politics author is in transit after holding several rounds of meetings in New York, which he will report on, among other things, during the week. Consumer confidence dropped sharply again in July, owing to TL weakness and as the effect of pre-election s...

Marcos 2.0: Year 2 to-dos
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jul 2023

When Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. assumed power at the end of June last year, we listed five areas where the new administration needed to take fire-fighting stances to speed up post-pandemic recovery. These were: (a) battling inflation and putting fiscal consolidation on more solid footing to ensure mac...

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