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On Turkey’s (political) fat tails
TURKEY · Report · 09 Feb 2025

Having poured his heart out first in the recent quarterly/forecast report, the politics author is no mood to revisit the same old territory. Regarding “routine business,” he merely recaps the week’s developments pertinent to the main narrative, the most important of which is a “historic” statemen...

Keeping inflation at bay could be tricky
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Feb 2025 · 1 response

Last January 30, 2025, the media bannered that inflation may likely fall within the target of 2-4% for the next two years. This was based on the latest BSP survey of external forecasters as contained in its latest Monetary Policy Report. Mean inflation rate was quoted at 3.1% against the central ...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait budgets a large deficit, Saudi PMI soars, Sharjah issues bond, GCC opposes Trump’s Gaza plan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Feb 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped for a third week despite Trump’s return to maximum pressure on Iran. * Saudi Arabia’s PMI surged to 60.5, the strongest in a decade. There were dips in other Gulf states. * Fitch puts the Saudi fiscal breakeven...

Inflation Report: End-2025 forecast up, but easing cycle very likely to continue
TURKEY · Report · 07 Feb 2025

The CBRT has released the first Inflation Report of the year. The Bank, somewhat unexpectedly, revised up its end-2025 inflation forecast already to 24% from 21% previously (midpoints), while maintaining the 5 pp band around the forecast, as well as the 12% forecast for next year (see Slides 39-4...

The STF resumed the trial of the tax case regarding companies headquartered abroad, truck drivers will meet tomorrow to discuss diesel price increases, and an interview with Motta published today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Feb 2025 · 1 response

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) has resumed the trial of RE No. 870.214 in its virtual plenary session. The case discusses the possibility of levying the Corporate Income Tax (IRPJ) and Social Contribution on Net Profit (CSLL) on profits earned by a company based in Brazil through a controlled co...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Kyrgyzstan looking to tap international markets
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Feb 2025

Kyrgyzstan has made news recently, having announced its intention to issue sovereign bonds worth US$1.7bn for the first time in its history. This would be a significant financial move for Bishkek given the size of its economy (US$17bn in 2024). It is aimed at diversifying funding sources and redu...

Webinar replay - Turkey: What's in store in 2025?
TURKEY · Report · 07 Feb 2025

What are the upsides and downsides of Erdogan and Trump? How will geopolitical factors in Syria and Israel play out for Turkey? Is there a peace dividend on the horizon? Are early elections ahead? How will the CBRT steer Turkey's economy, given its fairly tenuous credibility? Is tangible disinfla...

Outgoing member of the Monetary Council sends out a hawkish message
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Feb 2025

Just a few days before the release of the January CPI data on February 11, Monetary Council member Gyula Pleschinger spoke to Reuters, saying the following: - CPI-inflation may have run above 5% yoy in January, and is likely to return to the MNB's 2-4% target range only by the end of 2025;- avera...

Slide Presentation - Turkey: What's in store in 2025?
TURKEY · Report · 06 Feb 2025

Get insight into Turkey's politics and economics with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Turkey: What's in store in 2025?" What are the upsides and downsides of Erdogan and Trump? How will geopolitical factors in Syria and Israel play out for Turkey? Is there a peace dividend on horizon? A...

The framework for the income tax exemption is ready according to Haddad, the TCU approved an urgent audit into the management of Previ, and the STF is scheduled to rule on a case against three PL party members
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Feb 2025

According to Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, the compensation framework for the bill that exempts individuals earning up to R$5,000 from income tax is ready. The bill is expected to be submitted in March, after the Ministerial Reform. Yesterday, the Federal Audit Court (TCU) approved an urgent ...

Waiting for the Fund
ARGENTINA · Report · 06 Feb 2025

Discussions between the IMF and Argentina on the new Extended Facilities Agreement (EFF) that will replace the one that just expired seem to be on track. Negotiations accelerated in the last two months, and it is quite likely that the agreement will be reached before the end of March. Taking the ...

Poor December figures for industry and retail sales, not entirely consistent with Q4 GDP flash estimate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Feb 2025

Industrial output fell 1.8% mom, 5.7% yoy in December, the latter after -2.8% yoy in the previous month. Q4 was down 4.1% yoy, full-year 2024 was a decrease of 3.5%, after -4.7% in 2023. As local industry is heavily focussed on exports, all this substantiates concerns about the state of the Europ...

Growth performance updates for 2024. Has inflation been slowing down? A harsh review from the OECD.
POLAND · In Brief · 05 Feb 2025

(Some) data for 2024 are available Statistics Poland has recently produced a flash estimate of GDP and some of the GDP components for the whole year. This clears some of the uncertainty about the behavior of significant growth drivers. In particular, one can see that while we do not have complete...

The proposal for reforms to the CSS pension plan presented by the government was modified by the Labor Commission of the Legislative Assembly on Tuesday night
PANAMA · In Brief · 05 Feb 2025 · 3 responses

Most legislators opposed the proposal due to the three-year increase in the retirement age, arguing that the Government failed to adjust the public sector payroll, thus placing the financial burden on the older population. This claim holds some truth: the number of new public employees increased ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 Feb 2025

Jan 24 Tengichevroil: Oil production has begun as part of the “Future expansion” project at the Tengiz oil field. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan wants to choose the vendor for the nuclear plant construction project by July. NBK: The Bank increased its gross gold and FX reserves by 27% (up to $45.8 b...

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