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Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2025

The fixed income market reacted negatively to CBR officials' comments following the decision to lower the key rate from 18% to 17% on September 12. Monetary authorities have highlighted fiscal policy risks and indicated a more cautious stance on further rate cuts. Consequently, long-term OFZ yiel...

Industry’s performance remains unimpressive in August
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2025

Although Rosstat reported a seasonally adjusted output increase of 0.7% m-o-m in August, this figure seems weak considering the contractions of 1.6% in June and 0.6% in July. For 8M25 and August alone, industry grew by 0.8% and 0.5% y-o-y, pointing to an overall growth of around 0.0% to 0.5% for ...

Economic stagnation meets polarized elections
CHILE · Report · 25 Sep 2025

Since February 2023, the Chilean economy has grown at an average rate of about 2.5%. The path, however, has been marred by sharp swings. July’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) rose 1% m/m (sa) and 1.8% y/y, recovering part of June’s drop. Health services led July’s rebound. This is mo...

The Senate CCJ unanimously struck down the Privileges PEC, the rapporteur on MP 1303 presented his report on the measure, and the vote on the income tax exemption bill is scheduled for next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Sep 2025

After strong political and popular backlash against the “Privileges Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC),” the Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) unanimously approved Senator Alessandro Vieira’s (MDB-SE) report deeming the measure unconstitutional. Congressman Carlos Zarattini (...

Market calm returns to Argentina after President Trump and US Secretary Bessent pledge strong support
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 24 Sep 2025

Last week, Argentina’s economy faced intense pressure as the nominal exchange rate hit the ceiling of its exchange band and country risk surged to 1,450 basis points. Yet, the government, led by President Javier Milei and Economy Minister Luis "Toto" Caputo, pulled off two bold moves that swiftly...

Trump said he should meet with Lula next week, the submission of the report on the Amnesty Bill was postponed, and the Senate may vote on the bill that establishes the Management Committee for the IBS tax
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Sep 2025

During a UN meeting yesterday, President Donald Trump said he had a brief conversation with President Lula and that the two will hold a meeting next week. In an interview with CNN, Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira stated that the conversation is expected to take place by phone or videoconference. On...

Headwinds to imports of Russian oil are intensifying
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2025

Following the obvious failure of his Alaska initiative, President Trump has decided to move to Ukraine's side most recently. On different occasions and through various means, including his own social media platform, his energy minister, and also talking at a press conference at the UN general ass...

Next Stop: Ankara
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2025

Early yesterday, an Ankara prosecutor ordered the arrest of 13 employees of the Ankara Metropolitan Municipality and independent contractors on charges of “overspending” ca. TL 150 mn ($4-5 mn depending on the exchange rates prevailing at the date of events). These accusations had been headlined ...

Boluarte attempts to boost approval ratings; post-election risk falls, but near-term election risk will impact economy; local market rally weakens
PERU · Report · 23 Sep 2025 · 1 response

We cover three topics in this September forecast report. First, in politics, having adjusted our forecast in August, we now believe with 80% probability that President Dina Boluarte will complete her current term, scheduled to end in July 2026. We examine how Boluarte has attempted to boost her p...

Kazakhstan macro: economic growth backed by rapidly expanding domestic credit to decelerate
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Sep 2025 · 1 response

According to the Ministry of National Economy’s flash estimate, the nation’s GDP grew by 6.5% y-o-y in 8M25. Earlier, the Ministry estimated economic growth in 7M25 at 6.3%. Prior to that, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that GDP grew by 5.6% and 6.2% y-o-y in 1Q25 and 1H25, respective...

The Lower House president will meet with party leaders to discuss this week’s agenda, the opposition continues to push for the amnesty bill, and the rapporteur of the measure on taxing betting should present his report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2025

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB), will meet with party leaders to discuss this week’s agenda. Two topics are expected to draw the most attention: the income tax exemption and the amnesty proposal. On the amnesty issue, the opposition continues to push for a broad tex...

A window of opportunity in the legislative agenda and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Sep 2025

President Lula is on his first trip to the United States since Donald Trump was elected president. The U.S. has pledged to announce new sanctions against Brazil. Party leaders continue negotiating a text to grant amnesty to those accused and convicted of attempting a coup d’état. The government i...

Politics: The 2026 Budget Proposal advances but is too subordinated to political considerations
MEXICO · Report · 22 Sep 2025

In the 2026 Budget Proposal (PPEF), total net public expenditure for the fiscal year is projected to increase a real 5.9%. Despite the declared need to reduce the fiscal deficit, social spending in politically oriented programs will receive a massive injection of resourses. This reflects the gove...

Should I stay or should I go?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Sep 2025 · 1 response

Imbalances continue to accumulate. After some improvement in the performance of public accounts in the first half of the year, largely due to the change in the disbursement date of certain expenditures, notably those related to court-ordered payments, the primary deficit is rising again. It is ex...

Lula traveled to the U.S. yesterday, the rapporteur of the bill on income tax exemptions should present his report tomorrow, and the Lower House is expected to vote on the amnesty bill in the coming days
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Sep 2025

President Lula traveled to the United States yesterday. This is his first trip to the U.S. since Donald Trump was elected president. However, no meeting between Lula and Trump is expected. Congressman Arthur Lira (PP-AL), rapporteur of the bill granting an income tax exemption for those earning ...

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