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GULF WEEKLY: KSA sells $6bn sukuk, Moody’s upgrades Oman, Zelensky addresses Arab League in Jeddah
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 May 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The Arab League summit opened today in Jeddah with Assad and Zelensky in attendance. * Qatar-Bahrain flights will restart next week after a six-year suspension. * Saudi Arabia sold $6bn in sukuk, and the UAE’s Aldar and B...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary (Kazakhstan+)
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 May 2023

May 5 Azerbaijan: Gas supplies from Azerbaijan to Italy via the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) increased in 1Q23 by 6.3% y-o-y to 2.4 bcm May 8 Uzbekistan: Early presidential elections are scheduled for June 9. May 10 Georgia: The country imported 41K tons of wheat in 1Q23 (+22.3% y-o-y) Georgia: ...

Kazan Forum opens
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 May 2023

On May 18 the economic forum opened for its 14th year. 15,000 people have registered to come and they belong to 85 countries. That is fewer than before. Kazan is the capital of the Tatarstan Republic. It is the homeland of an indigenous Muslim ethnic minority, the Tatars. The forum is its Muslim ...

Butter versus guns in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 May 2023

There have been enough incidents to suggest that China is softening its “wolf warrior” diplomacy toward the west, and the United States, in particular. This could have a substantial impact both on China’s foreign relations and its domestic economy. This contradicts some incidents suggesting a har...

First MNB sterilisation rate cut more likely in June than next Tuesday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 May 2023

The forint has weakened somewhat over the last 24 hours, giving back from its impressive strength seen in recent weeks. Two reasons are widely mentioned: USD strengthening against EUR, and the upcoming Monetary Council meeting early next week (Tuesday, May 23), when many on the market think the M...

Ukraine claims to have shot down 6 hypersonic missiles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 May 2023

On May 17 Ukraine claimed it shot down Kinzhal missiles, which are Russia's latest. There was an overnight Russian missile attack on Kyiv. Russia also used conventional missiles, and Ukraine claimed to have shot down 12 ballistic missiles. Ukraine said that Russia also used Iranian Shahed drones....

The urgent status of the new tax regime was approved in the House, Haddad said that Tax Reform may be voted on in June and three CPIs were installed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2023

As expected, the Lower House approved the urgent status of the new tax regime bill by a wide margin. About the Tax Reform, Haddad said that in June the proposal of amendment to the Constitution (PEC) of the Tax Reform may be voted on. The rapporteur, Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), should prese...

Key policy rate held at 6.25%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 May 2023

After raising its set of policy rates by 425bp since May last year, the Monetary Board decided today to pause monetary tightening, keeping the overnight RRP rate at 6.25%. The decision is based on the BSP’s forecast of a gradual decline in inflation to target by 4Q, inflation expectations for 202...

Moderate y-o-y GDP contraction in 1Q23 prompts decent economic growth this year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 May 2023

Rosstat reported that GDP was down by a mere 1.9% y-o-y in 1Q23 which is not bad a result following the 4.5%, 3.5%, 2.7% y-o-y contraction in 2Q22, 3Q22, and 4Q22 and the high base in 1Q22. So far, Rosstat didn’t provide any breakdown of the GDP – just this flash-estimate, which is the usual prac...

Congress approves a new mining royalty
CHILE · In Brief · 17 May 2023

After working its way through the legislative maze for four years, Chile’s mining royalty law was approved today in Congress. The bill, which will become law once the president signs it, seeks to tax large-scale mining companies according to a differentiated schedule. The new rules will tax compa...

Russia and Iran sign transport deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 May 2023

On May 17 the countries agreed to cooperate on a commercial transport system to connect the Persian Gulf and India. Both nations wish to circumvent sea lanes. It also relates to a 164-km-railroad in Iran due to be completed by the end of 2026. This will allow goods to travel by train from Russia ...

Cross Death: Long Awaited
ECUADOR · In Brief · 17 May 2023

Yesterday, Guillermo Lasso attended the Assembly session to present his defense on the accusations of corruption that were the basis for his impeachment. He did not announce the cross-death process during his speech, but did so last night at 7 pm, and requested the Electoral Council to call new e...

A Changed Game
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 May 2023

We adjust our public spending, inflation, and exchange rate projections downward significantly following the government's 1 May 2023 announcements. Inflation remains high but falls to 188 percent this year (from 251 percent in 2022) and the exchange rate closes at 48 Bs/$ (+160 percent). A slower...

Kazakhstan macro: economic growth to surprise on the upside in 2023
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 17 May 2023

The economic situation in Kazakhstan remained stable in April, and the economy continued to expand steadily as the short-term indicator (an aggregate measure of activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade, and communications) increased by 5.5% y-o-y in 4M23. In 1Q23 it was u...

Today the House is expected to vote on the urgency of the new tax regime, Haddad will speak about government's economic policy and the Senate votes on MP 1147/22, which eliminates the rates of PIS and Cofins on revenues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 May 2023

The Lower House is expected to vote today on the urgency of the new tax regime. The expectation is for more than 300 votes in favor of urgency. Fernando Haddad will speak today about the government's economic policy in a joint public hearing in the Lower House Committees on Economic Development, ...

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