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The politics of debt after the NPC
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Apr 2023

China is struggling with high debt. The weakest portion is concentrated in the local investment companies, Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs), with an estimated 50 to 60 trillion yuan. They emerged from the 2009 financial crisis and have since become the principal support for the propert...

Massa prepares new measures amidst conditions set by the IMF Executive Board during the fourth review approval
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 03 Apr 2023

During the weekend the IMF Executive Board approved the fourth revision of the EFF, allowing an immediate disbursement of SDR 4bn (approximately USD 5.4bn). According to the IMF press release, “All quantitative performance criteria through end-December 2022 were met with some margin, supported by...

The OPEC+ April surprise
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Apr 2023 · 1 response

* Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Oman are cutting production by -4.8% from May. * Four other OPEC+ members made similar commitments, and Russia extended its existing voluntary cut. * Overall, the actual cuts committed to are more than those announced in October. * Prices have rallied by about 6...

Russian general fired by Putin
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2023

On April 3 several media source said that Rustam Muradov was dismissed because of failed attacks in Ukraine in Vuhledar in early 2023. The attacks resulted in considerable losses for Russia. In one battle at least 36 tanks and 67 other pieces of equipment such as artillery were destroyed because ...

The fiscal anchor in Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2023

The government may submit a bill to Congress that deals with the new fiscal framework. The government also promises fiscal measures that could reach R$ 150 billion. The Easter holiday will reduce activities in Congress. Minister Simone Tebet participates in a public hearing on Tax Reform in the H...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Apr 2023

Below we examine the political contradictions of the government and some details and implications of the new fiscal framework. A feeling of perplexity has crystallized about the behavior of President Lula and the paralysis of his government during its first three months, the “honeymoon” period...

Russian macro: moderate growth in 2023 driven by domestic demand
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 03 Apr 2023

Assuming no new major external shocks in 2023, the economy may grow by over 1% this year. The current account will shrink while still remaining in surplus, and the budget balance will remain in deficit. Inflation may decelerate to below 5% this year, which will enable the Central Bank to cut the...

Base effects continue, so does stickiness
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2023

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 2.3% in March (vs. 2.7-2.8% consensus), with the 12-month rate thus easing further to 50.5%, from 55.2% in February, and a peak of 85.5% in October last year. Domestic producer prices rose very modestly by 0.4%, m/m, in the month, which led to a furth...

The Governor sends a stern warning
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Apr 2023

Rates up with a stern warning Today’s rate hike of 0.25% to 4.5% was widely expected due to broad and sticky inflation, growth in line with the long-term trend, and a tight labor market. The Bank of Israel Research Dept. macro forecast attracted much more attention. For the first time since Covid...

Pdvsa struck by earthquake
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Apr 2023

After months of rumors as to the collapse of the government's stabilization program caused by an apparently unforeseen drought in oil revenues, an earthquake has struck Pdvsa. Aftershocks continue to be felt. It all started last January when Colonel Pedro Tellechea was named president of Pdvs...

The government may submit the new fiscal framework to Congress this week, the conflict in Congress regarding the analysis of provisional measures continues, and Bolsonaro to testify to the Federal Police about the jewelry he brought into the country
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2023

The government may submit a supplementary bill dealing with the new fiscal framework to Congress. As a supplementary bill, it will need 257 votes in the House and 41 in the Senate to be approved. The conflict between the House and the Senate regarding the analysis of provisional measures (MPs) co...

Markets will react to the rate decision bias
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Apr 2023

1. We expect a rate hike of 0.25% today due to sticky inflation, a generally resilient economy and a fairly tight labor market. 2. With the shekel retreating from its peak of 3.70/USD on the judicial overhaul postponement, a 0.5% hike appears less likely. 3. Markets will follow closely the ...

Markets will react to the rate decision bias
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Apr 2023

We currently expect a rate hike of 0.25% today (Monday) Inflation has remained sticky, surprising on the upside, and broad-based. Economic activity appears resilient (for now) and the labor market fairly tight. The BoI annual report noted that inflation being impacted by demand factors, and less ...

Waiting is just torture
TURKEY · Report · 02 Apr 2023

Each week brings new polls which show the Nation Alliance leader Kilicdaroglu firming his lead over incumbent Erdogan. A few experts even call him victor in the first round, which would have been unthinkable a few weeks ago. However, can his former intra-party rival Muharrem Ince play the spoiler...

Policy reform notes
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Apr 2023

We turn our attention away from the banking turmoil in the west and look at some recent domestic policy developments. We find some of these good in terms of helping to improve the local investment climate, some less clear in terms of their economy-wide net benefit, and others, more distracting th...

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