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The War Against the Central Bank
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Mar 2023

The Central Bank, aware of the need to keep monetary policy in restrictive territory, kept the SELIC rate at 13.75% at the last COPOM meeting, and stated that it will not hesitate to increase the rate if necessary. A level-headed analysis of the projections clearly shows that if the monetary auth...

Economics: Commercial banks look solid, but some non-bank banks may prove the soft underbelly
MEXICO · Report · 27 Mar 2023

Following the recent events involving a number of banks in the United States (the failures in short order of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank and financial problems at First Republic Bank) and in Europe (e.g., Credit Suisse and its sudden acquisition by UBS), speculation ha...

President Lula canceled his trip to China, and former President Bolsonaro is expected to return to Brazil on Thursday, March 30
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Mar 2023

For health reasons, President Lula canceled his trip to China this week. The trip may take place in May. Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is due to return to Brazil on Thursday, March 30. Bolsonaro traveled to the United States on December 30 last year to avoid handing over the presidential s...

Growth is expected to decelerate
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Mar 2023

1. Last night’s firing of Defense Minister Gallant resulted in mass demonstrations. This morning the shekel is appreciating on expectations for a freeze on judicial legislation. 2. Co-incident indicators, such as the BoI Composite Index, point to fairly steady growth. 3. Nevertheless, growt...

Growth is expected to decelerate, political uncertainty elevates higher
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Mar 2023

Several indicators are pointing to slowing growth ahead In January, high-tech service exports declined by 3.4% compared to Q422. In December-February industrial exports contracted by 11% saar. Imports of raw materials declined by 22%, consumer goods by 4% and machinery and equipment by 16% (all s...

Macro thoughts: take two
TURKEY · Forecast · 26 Mar 2023

We take stock of the political landscape, update our thoughts on the macroeconomic outlook for this year, and take a quick glance at the next. The pressures in the currency market continue unabated, as attested to by myriad interventions and controls, but the likelihood of a pre-election ‘curr...

Still no rate cut is likely at the March 28 Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2023

Predicting the outcome of the March 28 rate-setting meeting, when the MNB's Q1 inflation report is also due to be discussed, appeared quite easy around the middle of this month. By that time, the forint had depreciated to around EURHUF 395, at which level any reduction of the sterilisation rate l...

Putin says he will place nuclear weapons on Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Mar 2023

On March 25 Putin made the announcement. He claimed that this was nothing out of the ordinary. He added that Russia would send depleted uranium ammunition to be used in Ukraine if Ukraine received depleted uranium. On March 24 the UK said it might provide depleted uranium shells to Ukraine becaus...

Russian pardons 5,000 criminals for joining Wagner
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Mar 2023

On March 25 the head of Wagner said that the men had been pardoned. In 2022 Wagner recruited up to 50,000 men from prisons. They had to serve 6 months at the front to earn a pardon. Some were Russian but they came from countries such as Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Zambia. In Russia people can be g...

India says that Russia is not delivering on arms sales
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Mar 2023

On March 24 the Indian Air Force made the statement. The IAF has not publicly said what the purchase was that has not been delivered. The IAF stated that Russia has said in writing that it is unable to deliver on schedule. The contract was worth USD 844 million contract, and about USD 740 million...

Guatemala confronts a less dynamic year.
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Mar 2023

Guatemala´s economy faced several challenges in 2022, such as high domestic inflation, less favorable external conditions and high interest rates. The economy nonetheless recorded strong growth, good external accounts and stability in fiscal figures and in the financial sector. Guatemala´s econom...

GULF WEEKLY: All except Kuwait hike rates, Saudi relations with Iran and Syria advance, Kuwait’s political crisis deepens
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Mar 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf central banks, except for Kuwait’s, mirrored the Fed’s +25bp hike, as usual. * S&P upgraded Saudi Arabia’s credit rating to A, and Moody’s added a positive outlook. * Saudi and Qatari investors were hit hard by Credi...

The House and Senate reached an agreement on the MPs submitted by Bolsonaro but not the ones from Lula, President Lula travels to China this weekend, and Arko holds a conference with several government leaders on Monday.
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Mar 2023

The House and Senate reached an agreement on the 13 pending provisional measures (MPs) submitted by former President Jair Bolsonaro. The MPs will be put to a vote in the House next week. An agreement still has not been reached on the MPs submitted by President Lula. This weekend, President Lula w...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 24 Mar 2023

Mar 13 S&P: Oil production in Kazakhstan in Feb amounted to 1.55 mbd, while the country quota within the OPEC+ deal, was 1.63 mbd S&P: The agency confirmed credit ratings of Samruk-Kazyna (BBB-) and its subsidiaries KEGOC (BB+), KMG (BB+), KazTransOil (BB+), and KTZ (BB), the outlook has been cha...

Notes from Bilge Yilmaz breakfast
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Mar 2023 · 1 response

On Tuesday, I and 6 of my economist/columnist colleagues were invited to breakfast by Bilge Yılmaz, head of economic policy at IYIP. I wanted to share my impressions from the “on-the-record” part of the conversation. The “off-the-record” part was largely anecdotes and conversation about politicia...

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