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The Deceleration of GDP And the Possible Reaction of the Government
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Mar 2023

If the decline of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 had been a fleeting event, followed by recovery, there would be no worry about the government’s reaction. But this was not a temporary deceleration, but rather a persistent one. Despite the expansionary fiscal policy, monetary policy has been in...

Waiting for the new fiscal framework and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Mar 2023

The House and Senate may elect the chairs of their respective standing committees. In the House, the Tax Reform Working Group works with Bernard Appy to analyze pending proposals in Congress. President Lula is expected to finalize the format of the Desenrola program. This week's Talking Points...

Politics: Significance and implications of the second mass civil society mobilization
MEXICO · Report · 06 Mar 2023 · 1 response

A new potential force is entering the electoral panorama in Mexico and it might be a game changer. On Sunday, February 25 an estimated 1.2 million citizens took to the streets in 100 cities throughout the country in defense of the autonomy and ongoing autonomous functioning of the National Electo...

Economics: February economic data shows growth continues to slow as inflation remains high
MEXICO · Report · 06 Mar 2023

Economic indicators released last month showed continuing growth in key areas of industrial and service activity, as well as evidence that the slower pace that began to emerge over the course of the fourth quarter extended into 2023. They also showed that inflation remains sticky, especially in t...

Lula will meet with the Minister of Communications today, the government may launch its debt renegotiation program this week, and Mercosur and EU negotiators will discuss a free trade agreement in Buenos Aires
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Mar 2023

The Minister of Communications, Juscelino Filho – from the União Brasil party – is being accused of using a Brazilian Air Force (FAB) plane to participate in an auction of racehorses in São Paulo and omitting information about his personal assets to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Even the pr...

No BoI FX intervention in February
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Mar 2023

The Bank of Israel did not sell FX at all in February. The reserves did decline by 4.7ml USD due mostly to revaluation (global dollar appreciation). This underlines the BoI policy of avoiding FX intervention unless there is tremendous market dislocation in the short term. The weakening of the she...

Inflation risks shift from wages to FX volatility
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Mar 2023

1. Business sentiment and outlook remained positive in February. 2. Wage growth moderated in Q422, and a modest public sector wage agreement reduces the chances of a wage-price spiral. 3. The major risk to inflation remains shekel depreciation, which will be dependent on the judicial measu...

Armenian and Azerbaijani skirmish leaves 5 dead
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2023

On March 5 men were shot dead in Nagorno Karabakh - a region of Azerbaijan that is controlled by Armenia. Armenia claimed some of its police officers were ambushed by the Azerbaijani Army. Azerbaijan confirmed the shooting incident but said that its soldiers were killed when they attempted to pre...

Inflation risks shift from wages to FX volatility
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Mar 2023

Business sentiment remains strong The Business Tendency Survey in February reflects strong and steady growth with some improvement in the expectation components as well. The expectation for change in employment also improved in general, and in the hi-tech service sector (information and communica...

Turkey’s other quake
TURKEY · Report · 05 Mar 2023

Coming on the heels of a devastating earthquake, IYIP’s abrupt departure from the main opposition grouping Nation Alliance, added a new layer of uncertainty to the outcome of presidential and parliamentary elections. IYIP leader Aksener’s motivations for the 11th hour withdrawal remain obscure, b...

Moody's did not review Hungary's sovereign credit rating last week
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Mar 2023

Moody's passed its first pre-announced review date of this year for Hungary's sovereign credit rating on Friday, March 3 without actually doing a review. As a matter of fact, this sounds like good news, as there seemed to be a realistic chance for a negative rating step, in the form of lowering t...

Russian Defense Minister visits Donetsk
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Mar 2023

On March 4 Sergei Shoigu's visit was to boost morale. Russian media reported that Shoigu was inspecting the front in Donetsk. Bakhmut is in Donetsk. The head of Wagner Group said on March 2 that the fall of Bakhmut is imminent and that the Ukrainians control only one road into the city. In Februa...

GULF WEEKLY: Adnoc Gas IPO soars, Bahrain MPs reject 2021 accounts, Russian firms in UAE sanctioned, Saudi FM visits Ukraine
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Mar 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Iran is receiving a visit from the IAEA chief as worries grow about its uranium stockpile. * The first projects in KSA’s Shareek private investment scheme were announced, mainly by SOEs. * ACWA Power closed financing for ...

Better than expected, but still sticky
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2023

Consumer prices rose by 3.15%, m/m, in February, lower than the market consensus of around 3.5%. Our forecast, at around 4.5%, was even higher, which was largely based on our assumption of quicker price increases in service categories. As a result, 12-month CPI rate eased further to 55.2%, y/y, t...

Down the rabbit hole (again)
PHILIPPINES · Report · 03 Mar 2023

We enter 2023 as if going down a rabbit hole, not quite sure if surprises ahead will be the pleasant or biting sort. Although global growth is still expected to weaken, China’s re-opening offers hope of larger rebound, especially in tourism. Too, although financial conditions remain tight, infl...

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