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December statistics leaves mixed impression, inflation remains elevated in the early 2023
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2023

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors was down in 2022 by a mere 1.3%, while in December alone, it was down by 4.3% y-o-y. The performance in various sectors was quite uneven as construction grew by 5.2% and 6.9% in 2022 and December (y-o-y in the latter case). Agricultural o...

Pandemic factor finally lessening
CHINA · Report · 08 Feb 2023

The economy grew 2.9% y/y in Q4 2022, down from the 3.9% growth reported in Q3, and GDP grew 3% in 2022. A number of negative factors affected the economy in 2022, including global macroeconomic tightening, the Ukraine crisis, real estate restructuring and the pandemic management policies. In thi...

Maduro hopes to bargain “his way”
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Feb 2023

In January, the government began hostilities aimed at placing conditions on the Mexico agenda it can then use as bargaining chips. It has threatened to replace all non-Chavista members of the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, or CNE). To do so would jeopardize the legitimacy...

Merchandise trade balance improved in December
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2023

This was the first time since April 2021 that the trade balance got better than a year earlier: Note: Monthly merchandise trade balances in EUR million; Source: KSH In nominal EUR terms, exports rose by 12.3% yoy, whereas imports grew by 9.9% yoy in December. As a result, the monthly trade defici...

Lula once again criticized the Central Bank, he also spoke about the privatization of Eletrobras, and the government discusses compensation for states regarding the ICMS tax
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Feb 2023

President Lula once again criticized the Central Bank (BC). He went so far as to say that the Senate needs to "be on the lookout" for the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto. It is not a simple process to remove the president of the BC, and the chance it will happen is low. Lula al...

Germany giving 178 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2023

On February 7 the German newspaper Der Spiegel announced the surprise move. Germany had been very reluctant to allow even foreign armies to give German made tanks to Ukraine. Now Germany is giving tanks from its own army's stocks. 178 is far more than was previously considered likely. Most of the...

Robust industry and poor retail sales must be good for the BOP
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023

Another key piece of statistics after yesterday's poor retail sales number has been the release of the preliminary December industrial output data, with positive growth of 3.8% mom, 5.5% yoy on seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis. Note: Volume data, December 2015 = 100; Source: KSH At this sta...

Lula once again criticized the Central Bank, Minister Haddad discusses the provisional measure regarding the CARF, and the government looks to make progress on Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Feb 2023

At Aloizio Mercadante's inauguration as president of the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES), Lula made statements that were not well received by the market. He once again criticized the Central Bank due to the level of interest rates. Yesterday, Finance Minister Haddad, the Minister of Institutio...

The death of China sourcing
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Feb 2023

Global corporations are shifting their supply chains from China to other countries due to China’s Covid policies, rising state control, and concerns about deteriorating US-China relations. The top destinations are India and Vietnam. Much attention has been paid to the impact of the potential loss...

Azerbaijan arrests scores of suspected Iranian spies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023

On February 1 about 40 people were arrested and accused of espionage and using Islam to promote a pro-Iranian message. Most of them are Azerbaijanis. The suspects were in Baku and other cities. Iran has not commented on the arrests. Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran are often fractious. Thoug...

Russian Foreign Minister visits neutral countries
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023

Sergei Lavrov visited Iraq on February 6 and Mali on February 7. Both countries abstained in the UN on the Ukraine War. Mali is fighting against Islamist rebels. Wagner Group had been helping Mali in this fight. Russia claims the Wagner fighters are training the Malian Army. The United Nations ac...

Inflation is a problem
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023

A particularly strong 1.7%[1] month-on-month (mom) jump in consumer prices sent the headline inflation rate to 8.7% in January, the highest since late 2008. The surprise inflation outturn is above analysts’ forecasts (median 7.6%) as well as the BSP’s (7.5-8.3%). About 60% of the increase in mom ...

This map will help you comprehend the geographical scope of the disaster and why little can be done
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023 · 1 response

Source:  FT, link here

Earthquake: This disaster will reformat Turkey, full stop
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023 · 2 responses

It is my job to make sense of this calamity, to write a few words that go beyond shock and pain, that describe the losses which mount with each passing moment, to make predictions, even if very tentative. All I can say at this juncture is that this is truly a Black Swan event, which will complete...

The Federal budget deficit explosively widens in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget deficit reached R1.760 trln in January, i.e., over half of the annual target, as revenues and expenditures accounted for R1.356 trln (5.2% of the 2023 plan) and R3.117 trln (6.1% of the target). Usually, January budgetary statistics are not...

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