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President Lula signing two significant bills and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jan 2025

President Lula (PT) will sign two significant bills this week: one addressing the renegotiation of state debts with the federal government and the other concerning the regulation of Tax Reform. Both are expected to be sanctioned with vetoes. On Thursday, January 16, Arko Advice is hosting a debat...

The ANC’s January 8th statement post-2024 elections and coalition governance
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Jan 2025

President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered the African National Congress's (ANC) January 8th Statement this past weekend, marking the party's 113th anniversary. This address came in the wake of the 2024 general elections, where the ANC, for the first time since 1994, failed to secure an outright majorit...

The consequences of reaching above the limit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jan 2025

The reduction in the trade balance surplus in 2024 is largely explained by import performance. We estimated a model to project the growth of imported quantum, aiming to analyze its relationship with economic growth and movements in the real exchange rate. The model indicates that a 1% increase in...

Politics: Sheinbaum crafts a new and different public security policy
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jan 2025

Although economic issues remain the main challenge Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidential administration faces, public security is a close second and perhaps more daunting problem and could be its Achilles heel. What appears clear is that former President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador’s policy of “hugs ...

Ukraine tried to hit the TurkStream gas pipeline, so far unsuccessfully
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jan 2025 · 1 response

In recent news of the business as usual category, retail sales grew 0.6% mom, 4.4% yoy in November, marking impressively strengthening consumer demand growth, net fiscal revenue from VAT jumped 16.5% yoy in the same month and 7.5% yoy in January-November, and November industrial output was down 1...

The BoI stressed demand concerns rather than declining supply constraints
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Jan 2025

1. A cautious monetary stance will most likely postpone easing until end-May. 2. The BoI dilemma centers around the concern regarding a post-war consumption surge, a concern we think is exaggerated. 3. Business confidence improved in December due to the ceasefire, while consumers remain pe...

Reconciliation talks with Kurds pick up pace
TURKEY · Report · 12 Jan 2025

The politics author attempts to tell the convoluted story of how President Erdogan and his partner Mr. Bahceli are planning to achieve their ultimate aim of securing eligibility for the former for a third run at the presidency. It is going to be through a new Constitution. With all opposition par...

The BoI appears more concerned about excess demand on inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Jan 2025

Geopolitics: The Northern border remains calm with the cease-fire holding. The Israeli air force with the US/GB attacked military and infrastructure in Yemen. Some drones from Yemen were shot down last week but no sirens went off. Low-level hostilities continue in Gaza. The Israeli negotiating te...

Policy shift or feint?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jan 2025

Recent statements in China have been interpreted by some analysts as a change in policy. Xi Jinping is now warning of “challenges” in China’s economy. These and related comments have been viewed by some as hinting at a possible change in the central government's attitude toward economic stimulus....

GULF WEEKLY: Oil touches 3-month high, KSA issues $12bn bonds, Bahrain’s non-oil GDP rebounds but oil output is weak, Lebanon elects a president
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Jan 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil briefly rose above $80, a three-month high, on cold weather and sanctions concerns. * Regional PMIs ended the year strongly, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. * KSA issued $12bn in bonds, albeit short-dated, 7...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 Jan 2025

Dec 26 NBK: The regulator has approved a 5-year strategy for digitalization of the financial market regulation. Dec 28 President: Mr. Tokayev and the Russian President Mr. Putin had a telephone conversation and discussed the situation around the crash of an Azerbaijani plane near Aktau. Jan 3 Pre...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CA positions firm up in CCA in 3Q24
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 10 Jan 2025

The 3Q24 data for our CCA economies, which was published late last year, shows that the regional current account position has continued to improve, although it remains in deficit. In particular, the CA deficit ex-Azerbaijan has come in at 1.7 percent of GDP vs 2.0 percent of GDP in 2Q and 3.1 per...

Fresh polls: sentiments on territorial concessions evolve amid peace deal discourse
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Jan 2025

The world is abuzz with discussions about President-elect Donald Trump's territorial claims on Greenland and Canada. Meanwhile, I’d like to share some new poll results reflecting Ukrainian sentiments, which seem particularly significant as we approach the upcoming negotiations after January 20. F...

Favourable preliminary fiscal data for full-year 2024
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jan 2025

The Economy Ministry, which the former Finance Ministry has been merged into since the start of January, issued their first preliminary estimate of full-year 2024 fiscal balances this morning. The cash deficit of the central government came out at HUF4096bn or 5.0% of GDP, much higher than the or...

2025 Economic Outlook: Better than last year, but not out of the woods yet
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 07 Jan 2025

This report, the first of the year, outlines the macroeconomic forecasts for 2025 that I consider more important. Naturally, these forecasts may change significantly as reality unfolds because there are many uncertainties lingering regarding the economy, particularly those related to the midterm ...

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