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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco finalizes China investments, Abu Dhabi crown prince appointed, Fitch gives Qatar a positive outlook, Oman prepays $1.5bn loan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Mar 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has partly rebounded after Iraq temporarily halted 450k b/d in pipeline exports via Turkey. * UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia all ranked in the top 25 in AT Kearney’s FDI confidence index. * Unemployment amongst Saudi nat...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Mar 2023

The ruble continued to depreciate in recent weeks as investors weighed the effects of the current turbulence in the US and European banking sector and the likelihood of an economic recession. If this assumption is correct, global energy prices may be under pressure. It may add problems to the Rus...

Essential CIS Politics: April 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2023 · 1 response

* The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin. * Russia places tactical nukes in Belarus, having downed a US drone. * Russia’s arms sales are down sharply but it is selling jets to Iran. * The President of Belarus visited Iran. * The President of China visited Moscow. * Ukra...

Haddad presented the details of the new fiscal framework, Justice Lewandowski’s mandate nears its end, and the text of the fiscal framework may be submitted to Congress next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2023

The details of the new fiscal framework were announced. The text itself, however, should be presented next week. Some say it may actually be presented the following week due to the holiday on April 7, which should reduce the quorum in Brasilia. The mandate of Justice of the Supreme Federal Court ...

Interesting details from the new inflation report
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2023

The MNB's Q1 inflation report was released yesterday. The outlines were communicated already two days earlier, right after the Council's meeting on Tuesday. Nothing revolutionary indeed, but some of the details appear to be interesting. Here are three points on those.1. The short-term rundown of ...

The South African Reserve Bank hawkishly hikes interest rate, surprising the markets
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Mar 2023

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced today that it is once again raising the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points- somewhat unexpectedly. This comes after the Bank had slowed its rate of increase to 25 bps in January of the current year following...

Bread for today, hunger for tomorrow
COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Mar 2023

The Petro administration’s new pension bill is potentially game-changing: fewer than 30% of Colombians of retirement age and beyond currently have access to old-age protection. Reform would generate massive movements of people and money, & create considerable fiscal impacts. Under any scenario un...

Lasso's Impeachment was Approved by the Constitutional Court
ECUADOR · In Brief · 30 Mar 2023 · 1 response

Late last night, the Constitutional Court issued a partial approval for Guillermo Lasso's impeachment accepting jugdgement for bribery and rejecting the charge of concussion.  This ruling does not make the President's situation any easier.  The ball is again in the Assembly's field in this is wha...

Haddad discusses the details of the new fiscal framework, and former President Jair Bolsonaro returns to Brazil after three months in the United States
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2023

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, has a meeting this morning with the President of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), to present the new fiscal framework. Then, along with the economic team, he will participate in a press conference to discuss the details of the framework. The text wil...

China decoupling and “Altasia”
CHINA · Report · 30 Mar 2023

The economy was still on a recovery track in January-February, but a slow one. Industrial output rose 2.4% y/y, up 1.1 pps from December 2022. The seasonally adjusted m/m growth rate was weak. Investment rose 5.5% y/y, up 0.4 pps from last year, driven mainly by infrastructure investment with a g...

Decent economic performance in February, inflation low in March
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Mar 2023

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors was down y-o-y by 2.2% in 2M22 and 1.8% in February. The industry was down by 2.0% and 1.7% for the same periods (also y-o-y). Note that February 2023 had fewer working days than February 2022. Hence, seasonally adjusted (by Rosstat) indu...

Russian prisons offer inmates to work in defense industry
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Mar 2023

On March 29 this was reported in the Kommersant newspaper. The prisoners will work for Rostec, which is a state-owned military manufacturer. The head of Rostec is rumored to be a friend of Putin. The prisoners will not make missiles or aircraft because they do not have the skills. But they can wo...

Armenia and Turkey reopen their border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Mar 2023

On March 24 Armenia said that the land border will open for the first time since 1993. At first only diplomats and people who are neither Turkish nor Armenian will be allowed to cross.  Planes can fly over Armenian airspace to Turkey and vice versa. However, there are no direct flights between th...

The first nickel IPO
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Mar 2023

An Indonesian nickel company, PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk, is set for an initial public offering in April 2023. This will be the first Indonesian nickel company to go public, and it will certainly mark a milestone for the Indonesian Stock Exchange ever since the fanfare about the rise of the n...

IAEA chief in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Mar 2023

On March 29 the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) visited Zaporizhzhia. This is the largest nuclear power station in Europe. Russia controls it.  The IAEA boss Rafael Grossi met Zelensky on March 27. Grossi has repeatedly warned that Zaporizhzhia could be the scene of a nuclea...

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