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Final week of congressional activity and related issues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2024

The final week of congressional activity is packed with important issues: the fiscal adjustment package, Tax Reform, the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO), and the 2025 Budget. The Central Bank will release the minutes from the latest Copom meeting, during which the committee decided to increase the ba...

Politics: Opposition parties elect new leaderships in bid to reverse falling fortunes
MEXICO · Report · 16 Dec 2024

Mexico’s opposition parties are in serious trouble on all levels following their disastrous performance in the June national elections. All are attempting to come to grips with their rejection by broad sections of the population –they only have the support of 15% of the electorate- promising int...

Bad moon rising
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Dec 2024

Our fears, expressed in the September Quarterly Outlook, regarding the overheating of the economy, have materialized. Today, there are more signs that the economy is operating above its potential—a phenomenon acknowledged by the Central Bank itself. It revised its estimates of the output gap f...

Heavy policy agenda early this week
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Dec 2024

Here is a brief inventory: 1. The Finance Ministry will cease to exist on January 1, 2025. It will be merged into the Economy Ministry. The related draft law is in parliament now. No surprise at all, this has been long known to the public, together with the essentially certain consequence that mi...

What happened in the December Work Conference?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 16 Dec 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: - The December Central Economic Work Conference ended with a series of promises but was short on details. In itself that is not a surprise, as the conference rarely sets detailed policy, and mostly discusses growth targets and the direction of polic...

Protests rock Georgia amid institutional crisis
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2024

- Georgians continue protesting two weeks since the PM announced the suspension of EU accession negotiations until 2028. - The new president was elected under the new system, unrecognized by the previous president and the political opposition. - As the crisis continues and the EU cuts ties, ...

Rule of (martial) law
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Dec 2024

En route to Maduro’s inauguration on 10 January 2025, the government is preparing for possible violence by passing draconian laws that legalize repression and virtually eliminate all space for public protest. It’s setting up permanent martial law. A recent exchange of moderating gestures betwe...

Downside inflation surprise but rental prices accelerate
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Dec 2024

1. November’s downward inflation surprise is expected to increase the likelihood of a first rate hike in early Q2 2025 (or possibly end-Q1 2025). 2. Inflation in 2025 will be mostly due to the government's fiscal adjustments, while easing supply constraints and a strong shekel will push inflat...

Low inflation in November, but rental prices accelerate
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Dec 2024

Geopolitics: Israel’s geopolitical situation has greatly improved, following the ceasefire in Lebanon, the end of the Assad regime (breaking the flow of armaments from Iran to Hezbollah), and the weakening of Iran in the region (having lost an important ally in Syria). Focus is now turning to pre...

Slide presentation - Outlook for Colombia: Does all this add up?
COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Dec 2024

Get insight into the outlook for Colombia's growth, monetary and fiscal policy, and the positioning so far for the 2026 presidential election. Which industries are driving growth, and can they maintain momentum into year-end? What are the prospects for monetary policy into 2025? What is the poten...

Economic growth accelerated in November amid soaring government spending and credit growth
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Dec 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics started publishing November monthly statistics and suggested that economic growth accelerated on a y-o-y basis as the short-term indicator (a monthly measure of aggregate economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation, and communi...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi World Cup, UAE to tax multinationals 15%, Oman may postpone income tax, Saudi and Qatar GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Dec 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC again reduced its 2024-25 oil demand forecasts, which are still far higher than the IEA. * The UAE has reportedly sharply cut oil allocations for Q1, possibly to comply with its quota. * Britain's PM visited UAE and ...

Inflation in 2025 will hinge on oil prices
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Dec 2024

Our inflation and exchange rate forecasts for the remainder of 2024 and for 2025 rest on the assumption that the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) will hold to its crawling peg regime that began in mid-October. It will not revert to an exchange rate peg. Restrictive fiscal and monetary policies ...

The Senate approved the Tax Reform regulation bill, next week is the last week before Congress recesses, and Lula is expected to return to Brasilia after undergoing surgery in São Paulo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2024

The Senate voted on the bill that regulates Tax Reform. Since changes were made, the text must return to the Lower House for further review. The bill's rapporteur, Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM), expanded benefits for companies located in the Manaus Free Trade Zone and introduced objective criter...

Russian-supported Syrian government collapses—an analysis
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2024

- Jihadi HTS broke its ceasefire, leading to the fall of the Assad regime in less than two weeks. - Russia’s Mediterranean naval base in Tartus, the air bridge for Africa Corps and Russia's international credibility are all at stake. - Russia is not antagonizing Erdogan despite blatant Turki...

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