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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 19 -
Brazil Economics databank May 19
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank May 21
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank May 20
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
March’s CPI surprises on the downside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Apr 2022
March’s CPI surprises on the downside Inflation in March increased by 0.6% m/m (expectations were for 0.8%, ours as well) and by 3.5% y/y (similar to last month). Core inflation (excluding energy and fresh produce) increased by 3% y/y (similar to last month), with core inflation excluding governm...
Some Chinese edge away from Russia in complex operating conditions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Apr 2022
Lifan, the Chinese motor manufacturer, has suspended sales in Russia. Lifan was the largest Chinese car brand sold in Russia in 2014-18. It seems that Lifan does not wish to operate in Russia and is not registering more vehicles there. Lifan's hotline is not working and it is not updating its soc...
Webinar Replay - Crisis in Peru: President Castillo against the wall
PERU · Report · 15 Apr 2022
Gain insights into Peru's political crisis and gauge how the turmoil will impact the country’s political and macro outlook. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Alfredo Thorne discussing the protests against President Castillo and the likely fallout from the crisis.
Huawei furloughs staff in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Apr 2022
On April 13 the Chinese telecoms giant announced the move. This is probably partly because China faces secondary sanctions for trading with Russia. The USA has warned China not to assist Russia economically.A leave of absence has been imposed on Huawei staff in Russia. New supply contracts have b...
GULF WEEKLY: Fitch positive on Saudi, Dubai posts strong indicators, Abu Dhabi gives mixed signals on Egypt investment
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Apr 2022
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil is up as a potential EU ban on Russia and further JCPOA delay outweighs cuts in demand forecasts. * The Yemen ceasefire is largely holding and the new presidential council pledged to work towards peace. * Fitch lifted ...
Russia’s Epochal Turn: A New “Shock Therapy”
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Apr 2022
As Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine is nowhere near its end the “special economic and financial operation” against Russia launched by the West also intensifies. It looks like a consensus is now forming that the Russian economy is set to contract by over 10% in 2022. Things may chang...
War intensifies as Ukraine claims to have destroyed warship and Moscow threatens to strike Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Apr 2022
On April 14 Moscow said its Black Sea flagship had been badly damaged by an accidental explosion. Kyiv claims its Neptune missile struck the warship Moskva. Ukraine has been pleading with NATO to supply it with such missiles for weeks. Russia was able to land troops on the Ukrainian coast because...
MNB sterilisation rate unchanged today, the third time in row
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Apr 2022
Today's MNB deposit tender has been the third consecutive occasion that the Bank left the fix interest rate, at which it mops up all the free and willing HUF liquidity of banks for the following week, unchanged at 6.15%. As the forint has been conveniently trading within the EURHUF 375-380 range ...
MPC: “macroprudential” in, “demand” out
TURKEY · Report · 14 Apr 2022
The Monetary Policy Committee left the policy rate (one-week repo) unchanged at 14% today, in line with expectations. Today’s statement is almost identical to the previous one (here and here, respectively) except in two – admittedly, not so material -- respects.
The government may grant all public servants a 5% raise, polls show that Lula’s advantage over Bolsonaro is decreasing, and tomorrow is a national holiday (Good Friday)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Apr 2022
As defined by the fiscal responsibility law, the raise has to be given by the beginning of July, 180 days before the end of President Jair Bolsonaro’s term. If the government submits the bill to Congress, public servants may mobilize in an attempt to gain a greater raise. It will therefore be a r...
Inflation is becoming a political nightmare
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Apr 2022
Worldwide, the latest inflation indices have been reflecting a new global problem, based on rising energy and food prices, as the supply side shocks triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine spread across the markets. Yet, Argentina is not only not isolated from this problem, but also, on the ...
According to the MEF preliminary report, the first quarter of 2022 showed good news for the Central Government
PANAMA · Report · 13 Apr 2022
The recently published preliminary MEF report on total revenues showed positive signs in most items. Through March, accumulated current revenues were 6.5% above budget and 28.8% above last year's figures. Tax revenues increased 6.7% vis-a-vis the budget and 33.4% compared with 2021. Non-tax reven...
Inflation and war drives economic growth outlook lower
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 13 Apr 2022
Although the economy grew at a good pace in January and February, the persistence of inflation is worrying in a context of oil prices above $100 per barrel, and the uncertainty generated by the Russia-Ukraine war. Cumulative January-February GDP growth was 6% y/y, and inflation reached 8.98% in M...
The upcoming elections are increasing the amount of friction in Congress, there are several calls for increased spending, and the PT should discuss the Lula-Alckmin alliance
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Apr 2022
In the Senate, there is a conflict over the installation of Parliamentary Committees of Inquiry (CPIs). The opposition is trying to collect the necessary signatures to install a CPI to investigate the alleged irregularities in the Ministry of Education (MEC), and government allies have filed a re...
Shanghai lockdown
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Apr 2022
High frequency cinema opening data suggests a flattening out of the impact of Covid on the country, although it’s too early to tell. Meanwhile, the problems with the Shanghai lockdown highlight the central government’s experimentation with focused lockdowns but also raise questions about Beijing’...