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Bolsonaro grants raise to public school teachers, Sérgio Moro discloses his earnings during his time working at Alvarez & Marsal, and Congress resumes activity next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jan 2022

According to Law 11738/08, Article 5: “The national professional salary for public teachers of basic education will be updated annually in January, starting in 2009”. If the amount is not included in the budget, some changes will have to be made. This raise tends to increase the pressure from oth...

The South African Reserve Bank starts 2022 where it ended off in 2021 – by hiking interest rates
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Jan 2022

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met this week for its first 2022 meeting and announced its interest rate decision yesterday. In line with the Reuters' poll of economists’ consensus, the Reserve Bank raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. As such, t...

Agreement with the IMF finally in sight?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Jan 2022

At the close of yesterday’s newspapers, the local press announced that Argentina had reached an agreement with the IMF and that it would be officially announced later today, Friday, Jan 28. Even though we would prefer to read the actual agreement to give a more reasoned opinion, if confirmed, thi...

No surprise at the 1-week deposit tender today: the interest rate went up to 4.3%
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jan 2022

Just as we predicted two days ago, the 1-week deposit rate was raised by the MNB by 30 bps today. No great achievement on our part: as the Monetary Council raised the base rate by 50 bps on Tuesday, and they said that the two rates will need to converge from now on, it was quite easy to find out ...

The Confax meets today to decide on ICMS tax freeze, the Banco Modal poll yesterday had surprising results, and the Superior Electoral Court published the time allotment for free party advertising on TV and radio
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jan 2022

The Confaz meets today to decide on whether to extend the ICMS tax freeze for another 60 days. In a statement, 21 governors asked that, within this period, structural solutions to stabilize the prices of fuel be established, considering the terms of Bill No. 1472 from 2021. The Banco Modal poll w...

Hopeful forecasts, dubious strategies
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jan 2022

The CBRT released the first Inflation Report of the year. The Bank raised its year-end inflation forecast for 2022 by 11.4 percentage points (pps) to 23.2% (midpoint of 18.6% and 27.8%) from 11.8% in the October report. The 2023 forecast was also raised, albeit slightly, by 1.2 pps to 8.2%. The B...

NATO rejects Russian demands and asks for diplomacy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2022

On January 6 NATO said it would not rule out Ukraine and Georgia being admitted nor would it remove troops and weaponry from countries that joined NATO since 1999.NATO says there are up to 147,000 Russian troops near the Ukrainian Border. But "near" in this case can mean hundreds kilometers away....

Private consumption growth slows in Q421
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Jan 2022

Private consumption slowed in Q421, with credit card purchases up only 1.5% saar following growth of 8.6% in Q321. This is due mostly to the outbreak of the Omicron virus towards the end of the quarter (although purchases of services did increase by 12% saar in Q421). December witnessed a 2.3% m/...

4Q GDP rose 7.7%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Jan 2022

As we expected, the Philippine economy left 2021 with a bang, growing 7.7% yoy in 4Q and sustaining a 3.1% seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth. GDP growth was led by household consumption, with increased vaccination, fewer Covid-19 infections and easing of restrictions propelling a 7.5%...

Two important events to follow in February: the GAFI evaluation and the nomination of board directors to the Panama Canal Authority. Contagions increase but pension reform stalls.
PANAMA · Report · 26 Jan 2022

We expect in February the decision regarding the evaluation of the country's advance (or lack thereof) in matters related to the prevention of money laundering. In a face-to-face preliminary meeting, Panama will present what the government considers to be its recent improvements in legislation re...

Interim Armenian President takes over
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2022

On January 23 Alen Simonyan became head of state. The 42 year old is the President of the National Assembly. As in most former Soviet countries, if the presidency falls vacant the head of the legislature fulls this post until a substsantive president can be elected.Simonyan is a member of Civic C...

The OECD invites Brazil to join the organization, public servants continue to press for salary raises, and Alckmin is close to a deal to run as Lula’s Vice President
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jan 2022

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has officially invited six countries, including Brazil, to begin the process of joining the organization. The Brazilian government has committed to zeroing the IOF rate by 2029. The Secretary of International Economic Affairs at the...

GDP likely to grow by about 5% in 2022
CHINA · Report · 26 Jan 2022

GDP rose 8.1% y/y in 2021, and increased 10.6% from 2019. Growth rates across quarters in 2021 were similar, and growth was only slightly higher in Q2. But industrial growth declined. This indicates further growth pressure, especially when Omicron outbreaks are leading to frequent city closures, ...

New forecast: a lot to change in 2022-2023
HUNGARY · Forecast · 26 Jan 2022

The summary of our new forecast for the next two years is as follows: continuing but less lethal Covid, high growth and high inflation fueled by extremely generous election campaign policies this year, a safe Fidesz win in April, forceful fiscal stabilization from H2, followed by moderating growt...

President of Armenia resigns
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2022

On January 23 Armen Sarkisian resigned in a shock move. The presidency is a mainly symbolic office. Sarkisian expressed his frustration that he was not able to do more, especially considering the difficulties his country has been through 2020.The 69-year-old had openly criticized Prime Minister P...

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