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S&P changed the outlook for its BBB- sovereign credit rating to Negative from Stable
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Apr 2025

This happened at this year's first pre-set review date for Hungary, as regards any of the top three rating agencies: At the same time, S&P affirmed its BBB- credit rating, but even so, the agency's decision pushed Hungary to the very brink of losing its investment grade credit rating. S&P lowered...

CBRT’s baptism by fire
TURKEY · Report · 13 Apr 2025

President Erdogan received a delegation from pro-Kurdish Party DEM after 13 years, where reportedly PKK’s disarmament process was discussed. A tad bit more speculatively, DEM Party also laid out its 13 demands to participate in a new constitution. PKK and Syrian Kurds could start disarming for re...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE-EU trade talks launched, UAE & KSA do US LNG deals, Oman bank merger proposed, Bahrain tourism surges
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Apr 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil touched a new four-year low, raising concerns about larger GCC deficits and financing needs. * US-Iran talks in Oman are scheduled tomorrow and may also be a factor weighing on the oil market. * Gulf equity markets de...

Logjam in Panama’s logistics sector: Hegseth’s visit, the Panama Ports audit, the Trans-Isthmian Railway purchase, and the new gas pipeline
PANAMA · Report · 11 Apr 2025

The visit of US Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth to Panama, during which a memorandum of understanding and a joint declaration were signed, aims to strengthen security cooperation through joint exercises and a "cost-neutral" compensation mechanism for security services between the US and the Pa...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Industrial Production Shows Moderate Recovery but Remains Weak in Early 2025
MEXICO · In Brief · 11 Apr 2025

In February 2025 (seasonally adjusted figures), industrial production expanded by 2.5% year-over-year and 0.4% compared to the previous month. This marked a recovery from January, when output had contracted sharply. However, due to the weak start to the year, the cumulative growth for the first t...

Rescue efforts conclude for victims of Jet Set tragedy
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 11 Apr 2025

Yesterday, Dominican authorities included the rescue operations for the victims of the roof collapse at the Jet Set nightclub, an iconic entertainment venue in Santo Domingo. This tragedy, unrelated to any natural disaster,  ranks among the most devastating in the country’s history, with 221 conf...

Lula appointed a replacement for the Communications Ministry, the federal government enacted the Annual Budget Law, and the opposition gathered enough signatures to fast-track the amnesty bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Apr 2025

Yesterday, April 10, President Lula confirmed the appointment of Federal Deputy Pedro Lucas Fernandes (from Maranhão) to take over the Ministry of Communications, replacing Juscelino Filho. Yesterday the federal government enacted the 2025 Annual Budget Law (LOA). The budget was approved almost e...

Trzaskowski maintains a stable lead, but uncertainty is high. The prospects for institutional reforms and parliamentary elections.
POLAND · Report · 11 Apr 2025 · 1 response

This report addresses recent poll results, discussing the potential outcome of the elections' first and second rounds. We discuss the quality of the poll results based on recent results and historical outcomes, hidden supporters, and the role of the undecided. We also describe the impact of recen...

New MNB vice governor and Monetary Council member proposed by PM Orbán
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Apr 2025

Parliament's economic committee is scheduled to hear Mr. Zoltán Kurali (left on the picture below, standing next to governor Varga) on Tuesday next week. Mr. Kurali has been nominated by PM Orbán for the position of vice governor in the MNB. At present, the MNB has three vice governors: Barnabás ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current account positions decay in CCA in 2024; deterioration to continue in 2025
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Apr 2025

The 4Q24 data for our CCA economies, which was published over the last week or so, shows that the regional current account (CA) position deteriorated in the last quarter of the year. In particular, the CA deficit ex-Azerbaijan deteriorated from 0.8 percent of GDP in 3Q24 to 1.8 percent of GDP in ...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Banxico minutes reveal confidence on reducing inflation and interest rates
MEXICO · In Brief · 10 Apr 2025

Banxico is confident that inflation will continue to decline, downplays risks, and signals that the interest rate cut will persist according to the minutes from March 27 meeting The Governing Board of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) unanimously decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis ...

Lula will likely appoint a quick replacement for the Communications Ministry, discussions continue on the IBS Management Committee rules, and Brazilian newspapers focus on Trump’s tariffs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Apr 2025

President Lula is expected to call Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) and leaders from União Brasil to discuss a replacement for Juscelino Filho (União) at the Ministry of Communications. A quick appointment aims to ease the tensions within the party caused by Juscelino Filho’s departure...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Apr 2025

The Russian financial markets have been under pressure recently, as the "tariff war" story affected markets worldwide. Fears of slower economic growth and an acceleration of inflation globally were extrapolated to the Russian story. Even though Russian financial markets remain ring-fenced from th...

Kazakhstan macro: Exchange rate in the spotlight amid tariff games
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 09 Apr 2025

The USD/KZT has been on a roller coaster in recent months, pushed up and down by various factors. After several months of natural depreciation that lasted until the end of January 2025, when the USD/KZT tested 530 in mid-January, the Kazakh currency moved below 500 a month later. Now, it is appro...

Federal budget performance improves in March
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2025

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 1Q25, federal budget revenues reached nearly R9.1 trln and were up by 3.8% y-o-y. Oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues accounted for 29.2% of total revenues and were down by 9.8% y-o-y. The non-O&G revenues grew by 10.6% y-o-y, which is more or less in line with the...

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