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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GlobalSource Partners strengthens team in Argentina
ARGENTINA · Report · 25 Nov 2024 · 1 response

We are pleased to announce that Joaquin Cottani has re-joined GlobalSource Partners, once again as a lead analyst for Argentina. He will work closely with Domingo Cavallo in conducting and writing research, as well as serving our clients with meetings and conference calls. Dr. Cottani has a ri...

Giving Birth to a Mouse
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Nov 2024 · 1 response

Since 2023, the public debt, which had been on a declining trajectory, began to increase again. Projections for interest rates and primary results indicate that this trend will persist for several years. To stabilize the debt relative to GDP, a surplus of at least 2% of GDP will be necessary unde...

The BoI expresses approval of the 2025 fiscal framework
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Nov 2024

There were no surprises in the rate decision (hold) or monetary announcement. “Monetary Committee’s policy is focused on stabilizing the markets and reducing uncertainty”, the same sentence for over one year. Inflation (3.5%) remains above target and is expected to accelerate y/y in early 2025 (d...

The government may finally announce the spending package, the CCJ will hold three final public hearings this week, and the STF will submit the final report on the investigation into the attempted coup
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Nov 2024

The main event of the week is the announcement of the fiscal measures package that the government will reveal between today and tomorrow after a series of delays. The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, is presenting a draft of the fiscal measures to the government today. The Senate’s Constitut...

Consequences of a failed policy
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 25 Nov 2024

The Venezuelan authorities’ strategy of curbing inflation by pegging the official exchange rate by mid-October had opened up a gap between the official and parallel rates so wide that it forced the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) to loosen the official rate. Subsequently, inflation began accelera...

Trump win: Philippines' gain or loss?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 25 Nov 2024

On November 5, 2024, the United States held its 60th quadrennial presidential election, with Donald Trump emerging as the 47th US president by a decisive majority. Trump, together with his vice president, JD Vance, are scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. With a change in the ruling p...

Signs of a weakening labor market
ISRAEL · Report · 25 Nov 2024

1. A close analysis points to a softening of the labor market. 2. We expect a rate-hold decision today, with a positive mention regarding the 2025 fiscal framework. 3. Foreigners have been net purchasers of Israeli government bonds in recent months.

A too slow tenge’s weakening still holds tax revenues at bay
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Nov 2024

As the tenge hovered close to USD/KZT 500 in recent days (but didn’t cross this level) tax revenue flow, associated with the oil price and the exchange rate, remained unimpressive in October. From the fundamental point of view the tenge should have been at these levels (and even a bit weaker) a y...

SAUDI ARABIA: Moody’s upgrades back to Aa3 and above Kuwait
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Nov 2024

Moody's upgraded Saudi Arabia to Aa3 due to progress in economic diversification and a track record of good fiscal governance. This is its highest rating since 2016 and, for the first time, it is rated more highly than Kuwait, despite much weaker per citizen wealth metrics.

Israel's risk premium declines on ceasefire expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Nov 2024

Geopolitics: A ceasefire in North still appears likely in the coming week, according to both Lebanese and Israel sources. The ground operation on both fronts is winding down, although missiles and drones continue to land in the extended North of Israel resulting in some damage and casualties, as ...

Politics fluid, economy reasonably solid
TURKEY · Report · 24 Nov 2024

There is a lot of activity in the Turko-American relations, which according to the view of the political author, promises more upside than vice-versa, but it will take some time to work out the kinks. At home, Erdogan is redoubling the crackdown on opponents of all stripes, probably as a show ...

GULF WEEKLY: KSA investment licenses boom, Aramco plans more debt, UAE equity markets surpass $1trn, ICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Nov 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude has recovered to $74 as the market weighs geopolitical risks and Chinese demand. * Trump nominated fracking pioneer Chris Wright as Energy Secretary and met with PIF’s chairman. * KSA issued a record number of...

Questions from our webinar "Mexico debt, growth and trade under the Sheinbaum administration"
MEXICO · Report · 22 Nov 2024

We received a number of questions from participants that we didn't have time to answer during our webinar "Mexico debt, growth and trade under the Sheinbaum administration". In this report, we answer these questions, which deal with topics such as Pemex, the auto industry, constitutional reform a...

Fitch Ratings maintains BB- risk rating with positive outlook
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Nov 2024

Fitch Ratings has decided to maintain the Dominican Republic's risk rating at BB- with a positive outlook. This marks the same rating assigned in 2023, when the country first received a positive outlook, following a period at BB- with a stable outlook between 2020 and 2022. The rating reflects th...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: A cynic's view on Abkhazia's Black Friday
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 Nov 2024

The breakaway Republic of Abkhazia, which is internationally recognized as part of Georgia, got its 15 minutes of fame last Friday when protesters stormed government buildings in Sukhumi in opposition to an investment agreement that would have legalized Russian investments and ownership of land a...

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