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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian economy: More sanctions, more resilience
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Apr 2021

It appears almost certain that, after the US administration sanctioned the OFZ market, more sanctions will be imposed later this year, and in the years to come, as both sides, i. e., the West and Russia, will be keen to continue playing the same game for years, and even longer. Therefore, mountin...

Azerbaijan seeks to use wind power
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Apr 2021

On April 14 Baku signed a MOU with the International Finance Corporation. The IFC will help to fund offshore wind farms in Azerbaijan. The World Bank is also involved.It is estimated that Azerbaijan has a maximum potential of 157 GW for fixed bottom wind capture and 122 GW for floating wind capture.

​Industrial production to grow fast this year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Apr 2021

Rosstat reported that even though the mining segment remained under pressure due to the OPEC+ deal and in 1Q21 contracted by 7.3% y-o-y, in March contraction was not so deep as the extraction of gas, coal, and metal ores were up y-o-y. Starting from May, y-o-y growth in the mining segment will tu...

Prime rate goes up to 7.5%, the NBU signals preference to keep this level till 2022
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Apr 2021

As expected, the NBU Board increased the prime rate by 1.0 ppt up to 7.5% amid a substantial inflation speed up to 8.5% y/y in March. The NBU revised its inflation forecast up to 8% for 2021 from 7%, estimated previously. Also the Bank worsened GDP forecast down to +3.8% from +4.2%, estimated pre...

US sanctions on Russia and 10 diplomats expelled
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Apr 2021

On April 15 Washington announced additional sanctions and said these were hitting back for meddling in elections and for a huge cyberattack. US banks face extra restrictions on trading in Russian sovereign debt. 32 individuals who allegedly interfered in the 2020 elections are now subject to sanc...

OFZ market is sanctioned by the US, albeit moderately
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Apr 2021

Today, US President Mr. Biden signed an executive order, which imposes new sanctions against Russia. According to the document US financial institutions from “participation in the primary market for ruble or non-ruble denominated bonds issued after June 14, 2021” by Minfin, CBR, or National Wealt...

Government in the minority on the Senate Covid CPI committee
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Apr 2021

The members of the Senate’s Covid CPI have been nominated, and the government is in the minority on this committee. The government is now looking to prevent the opposition from obtaining one of the CPI’s key positions: president and rapporteur. The Budgetary Guidelines Law (LDO) should be submitt...

The Huarong default and China’s macroeconomy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Apr 2021

China’s State Council Tuesday issued a decree ordering a “deepening” of reform of the budget management system. The key point is an order to reduce financial risk and increase transparency of local government finance. This order follows the recent cancellation of the Ant Group IPO and stricter re...

MPC stays on hold, but turns visibly more dovish, as expected
TURKEY · Report · 15 Apr 2021

At today’s regular rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the CBRT, under the new Governor and two new MPC members, left the policy rate unchanged at 19% (simple; see chart), but modified the language in a markedly more dovish direction.

Yandex faces investigation for manipulating searches
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Apr 2021

On April 14 the Russian competition authority is investigating the nation's main tech company on suspicion that it is exploiting its market dominance. Yandex is accused of unfairly favoring its own services.The Federal Anti Monopoly Service said Yandex has not heeded an earlier warning. Shares in...

Inflation slows and may decelerate faster than expected
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Apr 2021

Rosstat reported that inflation was at 0.1% over the seven days ending on April 12. From April 1 to April 12, it also remained at 0.1%. There are more signs of gradually declining prices across a growing number of products of the consumption basket. These observations generally support GKEM Analy...

Progress on Covid vaccination and reopening
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Apr 2021 · 1 response

On April 7, the night curfew, in force since November 11, was shortened by two hours, to between 10pm and 5am, and the time when shops that can be kept open otherwise are required to close was modified to 9.30pm from 7pm. All that was done with reference to the fact that the total number of those...

The STF to analyze two important matters today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Apr 2021

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will analyze two important matters today. First, Minister Luís Roberto Barroso’s decision to decree the installation of the COVID CPI in the Federal Senate will be reviewed. His decision will likely be approved, as there was a similar case in the court previously t...

​Despite slight inflation surprise, core inflation moderates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Apr 2021

Inflation in March was up 0.6% m/m and 0.2% y/y (from zero last month), slightly higher than market expectation (and ours) of 0.5% m/m. A closer look at the details actually points to a moderation of underlying inflation, with core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) declining ...

The South African bond market remains vulnerable to the country’s weak fundamentals
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Apr 2021

Yields on South African bonds have been particularly volatile since March 2020 largely on the back of the Covid-19 pandemic and the country losing its last investment grade credit rating from a major rating agency, further downgrades, and the subsequent non-resident net sales of bonds. Moreover, ...

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