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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​GULF WEEKLY: Iran talks begin, IMF forecasts brighten, but Covid wave worsens
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Apr 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The first week of US-Iran indirect nuclear talks in Vienna seemed to make progress. * Coronavirus cases rose sharply in most Gulf states, and Qatar entered a new lockdown. * The IMF’s 2021 forecast increased GCC growth to...

Atypical disinflation in March
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Apr 2021

March inflation slowed to 7 percent month-on-month, from 16 percent in February. That extraordinarily low reading owes partly to a fiscal policy-driven cash crunch as demand for bolivars to pay annual taxes collided with unusually low government spending, causing dollar prices to fall against the...

Balance of payments remains stable in 1Q21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2021

Russia’s balance of payments continued to evolve in 1Q21 and looked relatively healthy. The current account surplus reached $16.8bn, while the trade surplus was at $24.4 bn. Even though these numbers are lower than in 2Q20 ($23.9 bn and $33.1 bn), they looked solid. Note that Russia’s oil exports...

CPI-inflation in March: headline rate up, core rates down
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Apr 2021

Once again, the direction for headline CPI-inflation was set by fuel prices in March. The figures were: 0.7% mom, unchanged, but 3.7% yoy, sharply up from 3.1% yoy in February and 2.7% yoy in each of the previous three months. However, the yoy rate of core inflation dropped to 3.9% yoy from 4.1% ...

Russia giving Twitter more time to delete illegal posts or face a ban
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2021

On April 4 the government told the social media company that it has until mid May to take down unlawful statements. Roskomnadzor has already slowed Twitter to penalize it. Twitter allegedly permitted posts on narcotics, encouragement of child suicide and posts connected to child porn. Twitter vig...

The burden of public debt management impinges on monetary policy
INDIA · Report · 08 Apr 2021

There has long been an awkward feature of the Indian institutional environment: The central bank also conducts public debt management, banking regulation, aspires to control the exchange rate, and controls the operations and regulation of the bond market. Given this backdrop and the changes that ...

Improving industrial output growth in February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Apr 2021

Industrial output grew 4.8% mom, 3.7% yoy in February, which means quite good-looking figures. The monthly growth rate was perhaps less impressive, as it represented a bounce-back from a period when car manufacturers were forced to halt production temporarily, due to a global shortage of essentia...

Russia’s macro: CBR promises more rate hikes despite moderate growth, lower inflation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Apr 2021

As Russia’s y-o-y inflation has remained high in recent months, the Central Bank of Russia has become more hawkish. After the 25 bps rate hike at its latest meeting, it warned of more hikes this year. Historically, the key rate was usually a few months behind inflation, especially at tipping poin...

Russia's space tourism company folds
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Apr 2021

On April 6 the company, Kosmokurs, closed. It intended to send tourists to space via a private cosmodrome. The company said it was too difficult to coordinate its business plan with local government. The regulations were also impossible to comply with.The company was founded in 2014. Its aim was ...

Zoom backs down on ban on Russian State
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Apr 2021

On April 8 Kommersant reported Zoom retracted its policy of not selling to the Russian government. Moscow has urged Russian companies to boycott Zoom in reprisal for the sale. Zoom has therefore revoked the ban.

Pork tariffs lowered
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Apr 2021

President Duterte on Wednesday signed an executive order substantially reducing tariffs on imported pork products for one year. The order immediately lowers tariff rates from 30% to 5% for imports within the quota or minimum access volume (MAV) effective for three months, increasing to 10% in the...

China’s monetary policy and U.S. rates
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 08 Apr 2021

“China’s odd monetary transmission mechanisms are largely function of distortions to the Chinese economy, particularly in the Chinese commercial banking system.” John Fernald, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Rising interest rates in the U.S. could increase capital flight pressure on Chi...

​Turkey-Gulf re-engagement: Both stand to benefit but it won’t be easy
TURKEY · Report · 08 Apr 2021

This is a joint report, co-written by GlobalSource Partners Turkey Political Analyst Atilla Yesilada​ and GCC Country Analyst Justin Alexander. * Amid its latest crisis, Turkey could benefit from financing, trade and tourism from the Gulf, particularly if it can patch up relations with the UAE...

​Turkey-Gulf re-engagement: Both stand to benefit but it won’t be easy
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Apr 2021

This report was co-written by GlobalSource Partners GCC Country Analyst Justin Alexander and GlobalSource Partners Turkey Political Analyst Atilla Yesilada. * Amid its latest crisis, Turkey could benefit from financing, trade and tourism from the Gulf, particularly if it can patch up relations...

Enemy at the Gates: Russia shows muscle on the border of Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 08 Apr 2021 · 1 response

Over the recent weeks we have seen regular reports about the growing number of Russian troops on the border of Ukraine. That was a logical and quite predictable development after Joe Biden called Russian President Vladimir Putin a “killer” and after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy ambushe...

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