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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian macro: The CBR - toward a “neutral”, albeit confusing monetary policy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Mar 2021 · 1 response

The Russian Central bank raised its key policy rate by 25 bps last Friday. This move did not look necessary at this stage and for the time being it may be seen as relatively unimportant for the economy. What may be of greater importance is that the CBR clearly said that the key rate may go up fur...

Inflation accelerates but remains fundamentally low
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Mar 2021

* Private consumption has expanded rapidly with the opening-up of the economy. * Despite February’s higher-than-expected CPI, we see inflation stabilizing at the low end of the target. * Pressure for shekel appreciation is expected to continue while BoI FX intervention is likely to taper...

Ukraine sanctions its ex- president
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Mar 2021

On March 19 Kyiv sanctioned Viktor Yanukovych and the former Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and 23 others. The National Security and Defense Council drew up the list.Serhiy Kurchenko and head of the Russian administration in Crimea is on the list. Companies owned by Vitaliy Lupeto have been sanctio...

Inflation accelerates but remains fundamentally low
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Mar 2021

Highlights of the Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 22.3.21February’s CPI reached 0.3% m/m, above expectations This was due to higher rental prices and an upward correction in clothing prices. Core inflation moved higher to 0.3% y/y from zero last month. The major forecasters on average now expect infl...

Little fires everywhere
TURKEY · Report · 21 Mar 2021 · 5 responses

We have, naturally, centered this Sunday’s report around the sudden and unexpected dismissal of CBRT Governor Naci Agbal over the weekend, who has been replaced by Mr. Sahap Kavcioglu, an advocate of low interest rate policies, an academic at Marmara University’s School of Banking and a former se...

Bulgaria tells Russia to cease spying
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Mar 2021

On March 20 the Bulgarian Prime Minister told Russia to refrain from espionage. On March 19 Bulgaria said it had arrested 6 Bulgarians who were spying for Russia. However, Sofia has not decided to expel any Russian diplomats this time which is what it has done several times over the past 2 years....

Russia increases key rate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Mar 2021

On March 19 the Central Bank of Russia raised the key rate for the first time since 2018. Rising inflation and food prices obliged the CBR to change its monetary policy. The benchmark was gone up from 4.25% to 4.5%.

Lukashenka names two possible successors
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2021

On March 19 Lukashenka for the first time ever publicly discussed two potential replacement for him as a president. He named the ex health minister Uladzimer Karanik and the ex Interior Minister Yury Karayev. Both are under US sanctions.Why does Lukashenka think either of these men might be worth...

​GULF WEEKLY: Oil pulls back, Saudi GDP recovers in Q4, Bahrain breaches debt ceiling
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Mar 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dropped sharply after a five-month rally, and the IEA published its medium-term outlook. *Iran’s president criticized hardliners' obstructing efforts to secure US sanctions relief. There is still time for progress be...

Covid watch (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 Mar 2021

Covid19 cases jumped again this week, with the case count reaching a record high of 7,103 today and the national weekly average rising by over 50%. The alert level is particularly high in Metro Manila which accounts for about half of the new cases and where hospital bed occupancy has been creepin...

Turkey's economy at the crossroads
TURKEY · Report · 19 Mar 2021

​Our live webinar features Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada, with guest speaker Professor Asaf Savas Akat, as they discuss Turkey's current economic and political situation as well as its long-term challenges​. This webinar was moderated by Tim Ash, Senior EM Sovereign Strategist, BlueBay Asset Man...

Armenian PM calls early election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2021

On March 18 Nikol Pashinyan bowed to the opposition's demands for an election this year. The elections will be held in June 2021. President Sarkisian has agreed to allow early elections. Pashinyan tried to fire military chiefs who publicly castigated him after he said that some of the army's Russ...

Which will be faster: the virus or vaccination?
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Mar 2021

The domestic Covid situation now looks very serious indeed. The third wave of the epidemic, which started in the second half of January, has clearly overshadowed the previous second wave in every respect, and it continues to be spreading speedily for the time being. This forced the authorities to...

​A good step forward in an uphill battle
TURKEY · Report · 18 Mar 2021

The Monetary Policy Committee/CBRT surprised markets on the upside today by raising the policy rate (one-week repo rate) by 200 bps to 19% (simple) versus consensus expectations – including our baseline -- of a 100 bps hike (see chart).

Russia withdraws ambassador from the US
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Mar 2021

On March 17 Russia recalled its ambassador from the United States. This was in protest at Biden's saying that Putin is a killer. Biden also said that Russia would ''pay a price'' for interfering in the US election and trying to help Trump win. US intelligence published a report concluding that Ru...

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