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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Poor retail sales and industry data reported for December
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Feb 2021

Following seven consecutive months of moderately positive mom growth rates, retail sales fell by 0.2% sda in volume terms in December. Needless to say, the last month of any year is of special importance in this respect, given that retail sales are typically 20-25% higher during the Christmas sho...

​Should we worry about inflation? (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Feb 2021

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) today announced that January inflation shot up to 4.2% from 3.5% in December, traced largely to food inflation which rose 6.6%. In the space of one month, average prices went up 1.3%, the highest since June 2008 with food prices contributing close to 3/4s...

The balancing act of saving lives, livelihoods and economic revival
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 04 Feb 2021

As the global economy starts to recover from the catastrophic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries are faced with the challenge of managing the second wave of infections and securing vaccines for the virus. The latter is already exposing the fact that the road to recovery will be uneven and...

Russia and Turkey establish a joint base in Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Feb 2021

On January 30 the Russian and Turkish armies opened their shared base in the Aghdam Region. There are 60 soldiers from each army, and there is no joint commander. This is the first time in over 100 years that Turkey has stationed troops in Azerbaijan. The purpose of the base is to launch monitor ...

Surprise picks for Central Bank board
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 03 Feb 2021

President Duque announced today that Ana Fernanda Maiguashca and Gerardo Hernández, members of the Board of Banco de la República since 2013 and 2017, respectively, will be replaced by Bibiana Taboada and Mauricio Villamizar.The year started with wide speculation as to who was going to be replace...

Inflation y-o-y to stabilize, disinflation expected from March
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Feb 2021

Rosstat reported that during the last week of January, the w-o-w inflation was at zero, and as of February 1, inflation YTD reached 0.7%. It is not yet the official number for January as monthly inflation numbers assume a broader consumption basket than preliminary estimates of weekly inflation. ...

Gazprom exported more to the EU than ever in January 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Feb 2021

On February 1 VTB Capital estimated that Gazprom's exports to the EU hit a record in January 2021. Gazprom sent 19.4 billion cubic meters to the EU that month. That was worth USD 4.5 billion. The gas sent was a 45% increase on December 2020Gazprom is eager to complete Nord Stream 2. France is lob...

​Call for new Constitution: DoA
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Feb 2021 · 1 response

Before I comment on President Erdogan’s call for a brand-new constitution, I’d like to update our audience about more immediate and possibly market-relevant events. Currently there is a stalemate between the government and Bosporus University students, who are protesting the appointment of a pres...

When bad news becomes good news
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2021 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose by 1.7% in January, m/m, somewhat higher than the consensus forecast of 1.5%, with the 12-month CPI inflation increasing further to 15%, from 14.6% a month earlier. Twelve-month domestic-PPI inflation continued to rise as well, although at a more subdued rate than the past se...

HNA and debt in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Feb 2021

One of China’s largest conglomerates, HNA, has been under a cloud for several years, and has officially been put in bankruptcy reorganization under the Chinese courts. Several senior former executives have been accused of corruption for stealing as much as US$10 billion from HNA company units. Th...

High Uncertainty Before the Elections
ECUADOR · In Brief · 02 Feb 2021

Elections for the first round of the Ecuadorian presidential elections will take place next Sunday, February 7th. Information from polls were available until January 28th, and the uncertainty remains due to diverse results from different pollsters. There are 11 pollsters approved by the National ...

Costa Rica Macroeconomic Program for 2020-2021
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 02 Feb 2021

On January 29th, Central Bank of Costa Rica released the macroeconomic program for 2021-2022. The main indicators estimated by the Bank, as well as those defined as monetary policy targets, are displayed in Table 1, taken from the Central Bank’s publication.

Russian economy contracted 3.1% in 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Feb 2021

On February 1 Moscow announced its official statistics for economic growth in 2020. The shrinkage was less severe than anticipated. The avoidance of a second lockdown was partly the reason for this. Spain by contrast experienced an 11% economic contraction. Rosstat revealed that hotels, restauran...

Russian macro: money markets becoming less distorted in 2021 as Minfin’s meddling set to subside
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Feb 2021

Ruble liquidity tightened in 4Q20 and continued to do so in January, as well, despite massive spending from the federal budget at the very end of the year. In December alone the government spent R3.9 trln (versus R2.1 trln in November). The federal budget deficit reached R1.7 trln in December, a...

Russia: We can cut ourselves off from the global internet
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Feb 2021

On February 1 Dmitry Medvedev said that the government has the ability to isolate the country from the global internet if the situation demands it. He noted that Russia could also disconnect from SWIFT. Medvedev is deputy chair of the Security Council. The law permits the government to do so. How...

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