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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The South African Reserve Bank remains put: missed opportunity or level-headedness?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Jan 2021 · 1 response

South Africa’s (SA) Monetary Policy Committee met on Thursday, January 21, for the first time in 2021. In line with the Bloomberg economists’ survey consensus, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left rates unchanged at 7% and 3.5% for the prime rate and repo rate, respectively. This is follow...

The Russian budget: decent execution in 2020 sets a good base for 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Jan 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that the federal budgetary spending massively increased in December, and in 2020 as a whole, the government expenditures exceeded R22.8 trln. In December alone, the government allocated 17.1% of the annual figure. Both figures appeared well above the expected. Meanwh...

Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan agree on oil field
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Jan 2021

On January 21 the two nations signed an agreement on an oil field under the Caspian Sea. The memorandum of mutual intention agrees to develop the Dostluq Undersea Field. The two nations used to have separate names for it but they have agreed on Dostluq now. It is believed to hold over 50 million ...

FDI in Russia lowest since 1994
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2021

On January 19 the Russian Central Bank (CBR) published statistics showing that foreign investment in 2020 was the lowest in 26 years. There was only USD 1.4 billion of FDI in 2020. That is partly owing to coronavirus. FDI in 2019 was USD 29 billion.However, the long-term pattern on FDI in Russia ...

Critical mass of Covid vaccinations expected by end-summer
HUNGARY · Forecast · 21 Jan 2021

Our new quarterly forecast is published in an era of unusually high uncertainty. The key unknowns are the development and success of Covid vaccinations globally, the implementation of the new rule-of-law legislation in Europe and the outcome of the 2022 parliamentary election domestically. Given ...

Recovery, but with significant risks
CHILE · Report · 21 Jan 2021 · 1 response

Economic recovery resumed in November after October’s pause, although less intensely than in August and September. Although the 0.3% 12-month variation was helped by a low comparison base due to the violent protests of Q4 2019, the seasonally adjusted non-mining IMACEC increased by 1.4% m/m. In t...

MPC: Words vs. actions, redux
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jan 2021

At today’s meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee/CBRT left the policy rate unchanged, at 17%, in line with the consensus expectation (see chart). The Bank tried to balance this inaction with more “hawkish” amendments to the MPC statement, which, along with a stronger emphasis on the difficult in...

Prime rate moves into negative territory
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Jan 2021

The NBU Board left prime rate unchanged at 6%. The decision was delivered despite consumer inflation has already sped up to 6.3% y/y in January, according to the NBU Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko. Already in February inflation will break 7% ceiling. This means real policy rate from now will be in ne...

Data watch: Gross international reserves
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Jan 2021

Last year, gross international reserves (GIR) surged 25% to end the year at close to $110 billion. This is remarkable considering the unprecedented global scale and severity of the covid19 crisis. While short-term capital exited emerging markets as in past crises, this time around in the Philippi...

The Government of Panama taps the bond market (between US$ 2 billion and US$2.5 billion), and the IMF approves a PLL for the equivalent of US$2.7 billion
PANAMA · In Brief · 20 Jan 2021

There was good news for the Government of Panama's finances at the beginning of the year. First, the IMF Executive Directorate agreed to a two-year Precautionary Liquidity Line of Credit (PLL) of US$ 2.7 billion with the Ministry of Economy and Finance, with US$ 1,350 million available for the fi...

Bogus presidential debates
ECUADOR · Report · 20 Jan 2021

After three debates, our opinion of the political and economic future of Ecuador depending on whom is elected has not changed. And we are sure that the confusion of many was not dissipated by the debates, either. We still consider Guillermo Lasso as the best option, and Andres Arauz as the worst....

Navalny video accuses Putin of using USD 1.35 billion in bribes to build a palace
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jan 2021

On January 19 Alexei Navalny's supporters published a video showing Putin's house Paraskoveyevka. The house is by the Black Sea. The money for its construction was allegedly plundered from the treasury. Aerial footage of the palace was released. It is unclear how the footage was obtained since th...

Truck traffic, Covid-19 and the economy in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Jan 2021

There is continued debate about the severity of Covid-19 in China, and more generally, about the accuracy of the country’s economic data. The latest WHO visit to China starting on January 14 to assess the source and impact of Covid-19 has continued to raise questions about the transparency of the...

Russia alleges that the US cut off phone lines at NYC Consulate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jan 2021

On January 20 Moscow made the accusation against the United States. It is possible that this is an American riposte against a cyberattack on the US that Washington says was perpetrated by Moscow. Thirty phone lines were cut for over a day.The incident is a diplomatic spat on the day that Biden as...

​BAHRAIN: Fiscals look weak ahead of bond issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Jan 2021

Bahrain is looking to issue around $2bn in 7-30 year bonds, its third issuance in less than a year. This is to refinance a bond maturing next week, given a paucity of FX reserves, and partly finance the large and structural deficit. The data from the bond prospectus on the 2020 fiscal outturn loo...

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