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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia's economic situation in November remains stable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2020

Rosstat reported that trends in the key sectors, such as retail sales, construction, transport, industry, agriculture remained relatively unchanged in November. GKEM Analytica mentioned earlier that industrial output was catching up with pre-pandemic levels, and in 11M20, it was down by a mere 3....

Russia send soldiers to Central African Republic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2020

On December 21 Russia dispatched troops to the Central African Republic (CAR). The reason is ostensibly to forestall a putsch planned for the upcoming weekend. Rwandan troops joined the Russian mission.The CAR accused the erstwhile president Francois Bozize of planning a forcible seizure of power...

Saudi shuts borders and Dubai stocks crash over new Covid strain
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 21 Dec 2020

Concerns are growing about a mutation of coronavirus which emerged in September and has become the predominant strain in parts of the UK during December. Preliminary results suggest it may be up to 70% more transmissible, although this is not confirmed. The UK government, which announced more str...

Inflation remains low, rental prices moderate
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Dec 2020

Highlights of weekly macro review:November’s CPI (-0.2% m/m) was in line with expectations Headline inflation (-0.6% y/y) and core inflation (-0.2% y/y) reflect a low inflationary environment, mostly due to a steady shekel appreciation.Rental (equivalent) prices moderated to 1.1% y/y from 1.7% la...

US closing last consulates in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Dec 2020

On November 19 the US announced that it will close its consulates in Vladivostok and Yekaterinburg. The only US diplomatic mission left in Russia shall be the embassy. The US said the decision was taken for the sake of security.The decision emphasizes how Russo-US relations are at their lowest eb...

US accuses Russia of gigantic cyberattack
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Dec 2020

On December 19 the United States said that Russia had carried out a cyberattack on several government agencies.On December 17 Microsoft said 40 major customers were attacked with malware. This enabled the attackers to gain access to systems. Electric power grids were among the systems exposed. 80...

The IMF starts on-line mission to Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Dec 2020

The IMF mission will start first review under current Stand-By Arrangement on Dec 21st, according to Interfax News agency, citing words of the IMF representative in Ukraine Gösta Ljungman. The meetings will be online. They will start next week and will resume in January 2021. Finally, Ukrainian a...

Russian National Guard to assist Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2020

On December 19 an agreement was signed empowering the Russian National Guard to operate in Belarus. The stated objective is to combat ''terrorism''.In August the two governments contemplated the deployment of the Russian Police to Belarus. Since then the situation seemed to become more placid. Ho...

Two-year sports ban for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2020

On December 17 the Court for Arbitration in Sport announced that Russia would be prohibited from taking part in international sports. This two-year ban will prevent Russia from participating in the Tokyo Olympics in the summer of 2021 and the Winter Olympics in 2022.The CAS had initially decided ...

A Positive Scenario "ma non troppo" for 2021
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 18 Dec 2020

For a brief period (2 quarters at most) the pandemic shut down the economy, producing a deep but short recession, but thanks to the strong fiscal expansion the recovery has been rapid. However, Brazil still has no plan for vaccination, and for an extended period it will be necessary to live with ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi GDP & budget, Dubai recovery signs, new Kuwaiti cabinet
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Dec 2020 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * 2021 oil demand was revised down further, only making up about 60% of the 2020 decline. * Iranian statements were supportive of a deal with Biden but the execution of a jo...

Covid’s second wave has peaked, no veto on the EU budget
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Dec 2020

The Covid restrictions introduced in November seem to be working, even though the health care sector is missing an outright debacle only rather narrowly. But the number of daily new infections peaked in early December and has been decreasing ever since. Improvement is only initial and limited for...

Four predictions for China in 2021
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 18 Dec 2020

We make four predictions for China in 2021: * Weakening of the RMB * Weaker economic conditions * Real deleveraging * Pressure on ​local bonds.

Legislative update
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Dec 2020

Congress adjourns for the Christmas holidays starting tomorrow, having passed not just the P4.5 trillion 2021 budget but measures extending to end-2021 the validity of this year’s budget and the Bayanihan 2 Act. The latter means that government is expected to miss spending targets this year but w...

Putin urges food price cut as economy struggles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2020

Putin called upon stores to reduce food prices. Unemployment was up to 6.3% in October. Salaries have been slashed by 5% in 2020.The price of sugar rose 70% from January to November 2020. Other basic foods have seen price rises only a little less drastic.The government has resisted a second lockd...

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