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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

No strong messages from today's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Mar 2021

The Monetary Council's regular monthly rate-setting meeting ended without any policy change today. No changes can be foreseen on the basis of what the Council said in its statement or at the usual press conference.One timely subject is the current and prospective upswing of the headline inflation...

Ford to make first electric vehicles in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Mar 2021

On March 22 Kommersant reported that the US carmaker will become the first company to produce electric vehicles in Russia. The company will be in partnership with a Russian company called Sollers. The Ford Transit will have an electric version made in Tatarstan from 2022.Sollers anticipated that ...

RUB falls due to row with the US
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Mar 2021

On March 23 the RUB fell 2%. At one point it touched 73.6 to the USD. It fell to 90.6 to the EUR but then climbed. There has been 5% fall in 7 days. Biden's statement that Putin is a killer has spooked the markets. There is a risk of even more US sanctions.Oil prices are down slightly over the pa...

Economics: A brighter 2021 foreign trade outlook but risks remain
MEXICO · Report · 22 Mar 2021

Institutions and analysts continue to raise their 2021 economic projections for Mexico on the back of expectations of stronger growth globally. The improved Mexican forecasts reflect expectations of how much stronger US industrial activity, which we expect will expand 4.7% this year, and economic...

Politics: Rule of law in further jeopardy
MEXICO · Report · 22 Mar 2021

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Electricity Industry Law (LIE), recently approved by Congress, has been temporarily suspended. The new legislation, backed by Morena and its allies and rejected by the opposition, reverses the previous administration’s energy policies, which were based on a...

Political tension increases and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Mar 2021

Dr. Marcelo Queiroga will take office as the new Minister of Health. President Jair Bolsonaro will meet with the heads of the legislative and judiciary branches to discuss pandemic measures. In Congress, we highlight the possible vote on the 2021 Budget. The Central Bank releases the minutes of m...

The Start of Monetary Normalization
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Mar 2021

With an increase of 75 basis points in the SELIC rate and the indication it will (very likely) be followed by another hike of the same magnitude, the Central Bank has started to reduce the excessive monetary stimuli in the economy. We do not disagree with the direction of the movement, but beg to...

Russian macro: The CBR - toward a “neutral”, albeit confusing monetary policy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Mar 2021 · 1 response

The Russian Central bank raised its key policy rate by 25 bps last Friday. This move did not look necessary at this stage and for the time being it may be seen as relatively unimportant for the economy. What may be of greater importance is that the CBR clearly said that the key rate may go up fur...

Inflation accelerates but remains fundamentally low
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Mar 2021

* Private consumption has expanded rapidly with the opening-up of the economy. * Despite February’s higher-than-expected CPI, we see inflation stabilizing at the low end of the target. * Pressure for shekel appreciation is expected to continue while BoI FX intervention is likely to taper...

Ukraine sanctions its ex- president
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Mar 2021

On March 19 Kyiv sanctioned Viktor Yanukovych and the former Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and 23 others. The National Security and Defense Council drew up the list.Serhiy Kurchenko and head of the Russian administration in Crimea is on the list. Companies owned by Vitaliy Lupeto have been sanctio...

Inflation accelerates but remains fundamentally low
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Mar 2021

Highlights of the Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 22.3.21February’s CPI reached 0.3% m/m, above expectations This was due to higher rental prices and an upward correction in clothing prices. Core inflation moved higher to 0.3% y/y from zero last month. The major forecasters on average now expect infl...

Little fires everywhere
TURKEY · Report · 21 Mar 2021 · 5 responses

We have, naturally, centered this Sunday’s report around the sudden and unexpected dismissal of CBRT Governor Naci Agbal over the weekend, who has been replaced by Mr. Sahap Kavcioglu, an advocate of low interest rate policies, an academic at Marmara University’s School of Banking and a former se...

Bulgaria tells Russia to cease spying
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Mar 2021

On March 20 the Bulgarian Prime Minister told Russia to refrain from espionage. On March 19 Bulgaria said it had arrested 6 Bulgarians who were spying for Russia. However, Sofia has not decided to expel any Russian diplomats this time which is what it has done several times over the past 2 years....

Russia increases key rate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Mar 2021

On March 19 the Central Bank of Russia raised the key rate for the first time since 2018. Rising inflation and food prices obliged the CBR to change its monetary policy. The benchmark was gone up from 4.25% to 4.5%.

Lukashenka names two possible successors
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2021

On March 19 Lukashenka for the first time ever publicly discussed two potential replacement for him as a president. He named the ex health minister Uladzimer Karanik and the ex Interior Minister Yury Karayev. Both are under US sanctions.Why does Lukashenka think either of these men might be worth...

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