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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Signs of stability in domestic demand in July, despite increasing restriction
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Jul 2020

Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 27.7.20:Recent data suggests that domestic demand has stabilized recently:Credit card purchases increased by 3.5% in July (through 21.7).The Google Mobility Index points to some stability in the past week.Unemployment declined to 11.8% in the last two wee...

Russian interest rate lower ever
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2020

On July 24 the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) cut its key rate to 4.25%. The aim is to revivify the economy. This is the third interest cut in a row since April 2020. Coronavirus has been the major factor in prompting the widely expected move. The cut has been by 25 basis points which is less than ...

Belarus opposition politician runs away to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2020

On July 24 Valery Tsepkalo fled to Moscow. He wanted to challenge the incumbent Lukashenka for the presidency. But Tspekalo was barred from running. He has left the country citing worries about the safety of his wife and children. Others who tried to run for the presidency have been sent to jail....

US accuses Russia of arming mercenaries
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2020

On July 24 the US said that Russia has breached the UN arms embargo on Libya. The United States published satellite photos which purported to show Russian manufactured armaments in the hands of Wagner Group mercenaries in Libya. There were photos of Ilyushin Russian transport planes unloading suc...

A loss for Bolsonarismo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jul 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro’s allies had their Twitter accounts deleted yesterday by decision of Supreme Court (STF) Minister Alexandre de Moraes. Bolsonaro’s allies are targets of investigations for allegedly spreading fake news. It is important to note that they were the targets of a search and se...

Which is the final offer?
ARGENTINA · Report · 25 Jul 2020

As the August 4 deadline for the debt swap comes closer, the question that remains is whether the government is going to stick to its latest proposal, presented on July 7, or if it will revise it once again. According to official statements, the government seemed to have decided, this time around...

NBU ouster likely to stall IMF deal
UKRAINE · Report · 24 Jul 2020

The replacement of the head of the NBU was the key event of recent weeks. On July 1st, Yakiv Smoliy submitted his letter of resignation, claiming political pressure. The move triggered a real storm. Forced replacement of the Central Bank governor is a blatant violation of the IMF memorandum, wh...

​GULF WEEKLY: Rulers hospitalized, Qatar seeks compensation, Oman VAT law discussed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Jul 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Kuwait’s emir has flown to the Mayo Clinic after emergency bladder surgery. * The Saudi king is recovering in Riyadh after gallbladder surgery. * MBS’s succession as King...

Oil demand in China: a short-term bounce?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Jul 2020

China has clearly been one of the success stories in handling the coronavirus. The flattening of the curve was a reflection of the nature of the tightly controlled political system. The numbers may not be completely trustworthy but even at multiples the caseload is still much lower than in other ...

Once more on rate cuts, Mr. Varga ... and the strong forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2020

On July 21, the MNB reduced its base rate to 0.6%, and the forint has strengthened a lot against the euro since then.Later in the week, finance minister Varga announced that he sees the economy a lot weaker than before, and the forint continued to strengthen.Well, yes, the forint can strengthen o...

Arctic companies facing financial hit from global warming
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jul 2020

On July 23 a leaked confidential Morgan Stanley report on Russian Arctic companies was published in Vedomosti. It said that because permafrost is melting in the Arctic companies operating there face grave difficulties. Their infrastructure is jeopardized. The melting means that soil becomes unsta...

Emerging markets and the new oil calculus - China, GCC, Mexico, Russia, Venezuela
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Jul 2020

​ In our live webinar on the “new normal” in the oil industry, Andrew Collier, Justin Alexander, Mauricio Gonzalez, Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Ruth Krivoy discuss the recent radical changes in supply and demand in the energy markets and their impact on emerging market economies. Our webinar is modera...

Russian growth in 2020-2021: a relatively smooth trajectory, albeit uneven across sectors
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 23 Jul 2020

Last month some international organizations such as the World Bank, OECD, IMF, updated their 2020-2021 forecasts and turned less optimistic. The global recession in 2020 is now seen a bit deeper, while the rebound in 2021 looks less robust and more prolonged. Russia looks quite unimpressive amid ...

Today’s 25 bps cut brings the South African Reserve Bank’s total interest rate cuts in 2020 to 300 bps
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Jul 2020

The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee again voted to cut interest rates today by 25 basis points following their scheduled July meeting, which puts the repo rate at 3.5% and the prime rate at 7%. This follows the Bank's repo rate cut of 50 bps in May. Cumulatively, this places the Reserve ...

Essential CIS Politics: July 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Jul 2020

* A referendum in Russia approved over 200 constitutional amendments. Crucially, one of them allows Putin to seek two more presidential terms. * Russia has emerged almost fully from lockdown and is open to tourism but there is little sign of an economic rebound. * Kazakhstan was ...

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