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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Sep 2024

The interest rate differential between Brazil and the United States has widened in recent months, a movement that tends to appreciate the real. However, our exchange rate model indicates that this effect is relatively limited, as is the impact of the decline in the Dollar Index caused by the Fed’...

Politics: Next stop on AMLO’s September reform agenda—the permanent militarization of security, with no limits on presidential power
MEXICO · Report · 23 Sep 2024

With the Chamber of Deputies having passed last week the constitutional reform proposal that definitively transfers the National Guard (NG) to the Ministry of National Defense (Sedena) and the Senate expected to follow suit this week, the stage is set for another codification of President López O...

The Tax Reform regulation bill will block the Senate agenda today, the Ministry of Planning will hold a press conference today, and President Lula attends the UN General Assembly
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2024

Starting today, September 23, the bill (PLP No. 68/24) that establishes the Goods and Services Tax (IBS), the Social Contribution on Goods and Services (CBS), and the Selective Tax (IS)—regulating Tax Reform—will block the Senate's agenda. This morning, representatives from the Ministry of Planni...

Escalation in the North weighs on the shekel
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Sep 2024

1. The shekel continues to weaken, and bond spreads are widening on the back of the escalation of hostilities. 2. Despite steady positive external fundamentals, the shekel has been more impacted by financial outflows. 3. The sharp decline in housing completions will continue to put upward...

Financial outflows have had more of an impact than the CA surplus
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Sep 2024

Geopolitics: The past few days witnessed an escalation in the level of hostilities in the North, in retaliation for Israel’s air attack on top Hezbollah operatives in Beirut and the bipper attack (which Israel has yet to claim responsibility). Limitations were placed north of Haifa (including) re...

The economy this week, in brief
TURKEY · Report · 22 Sep 2024

Service production declined slightly in July, over the previous month. Looking at industrial production, total trade and services indices together suggests, economic activity, broadly speaking, was in a stagnation mode rather than in steep contraction mode – as of July. The overall budget post...

Implications of the US election for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Sep 2024

This article provides an overview of the state of the race as of today (mainly of interest for those outside the US) and considers how the US administration that governs in 2025-28 might impact the region, economically and politically, and how the Gulf states view Trump and Harris and are prepari...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE fiscal surplus soars, UAE advances trade and AI deals, Saudi-Bahrain aluminum partnership considered, Israel detonates Hezbollah comms devices
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Sep 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Most Gulf states cut interest rates by -50bp, though Qatar did -55 and Kuwait -25. * Brent crude rose by 4% to a three-week high of $74 on the back of broad market optimism. * UK and EU officials visited the GCC to advanc...

Prime rate held at 13.0% amid rising inflation risks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Sep 2024

On September 19th, the NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 13.0% for the second consecutive time, after cutting it by 50 basis points in June. Accelerating inflation (+0.6% m/m and +7.5% y/y in August), the recent turbulence in the FX market, potential tax increases, and rising costs due t...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA Quarterly Outlook-3Q24
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Sep 2024

We provide the quarterly update of our country “cheat sheets”. The evolution of macroeconomic activity has been strong in 2024, and we have upgraded our full-year CCA GDP growth to 6.3 percent (5.8 percent previously) vs the 6.2 percent posted last year. This has been chiefly due to better perfo...

Webinar Replay - Argentina: Upcoming triggers and remaining concerns
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Sep 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Domingo Cavallo discussing Argentina's economic outlook in a conversation with Murilo Riccini, Bradesco BBI’s Andean & Argentinean Strategist. What are the strengths and weaknesses of Argentina’s fiscal adjustment? What is the d...

Central Asia changing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 20 Sep 2024

The five former Soviet republics in Central Asia are changing. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are easily remembered by the mnemonic "KKTTU". Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are rich in oil and gas. Kazakhstan also has metals and other precious chemicals...

POGO Operations in the Philippines: A case of violating Philippine laws
PHILIPPINES · Report · 20 Sep 2024

For the past several months, Filipinos have been closely monitoring what is now considered as an extraordinary case involving a Chinese national who seemed to have succeeded in securing Filipino citizenship, conducting business in the northern province of Tarlac and managing to win an elective po...

Talking points from the webinar "Upcoming triggers and remaining concerns"
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Sep 2024

Javier Milei started his presidency of Argentina with a strong condemnation of traditional politics, unions and professional corporations, and the role of the state as a resource allocator and redistributor of income and wealth. Once in office, he continued with the same rhetoric but sought to ma...

The SA Reserve Bank cuts rates as inflation comes within target and the rand strengthens
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Sep 2024

Bringing the benchmark interest rate down for the first time since embarking on a relatively aggressive monetary policy normalization that started in November 2021, the SA Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points during their September 2024 mee...

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