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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The economy is hit but withstands the pandemic pressure
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2020

Rosstat released preliminary estimates of major economic indicators in May and 5m20 and most of them don’t look too bad given the current circumstances. A few days ago, GKEM Analytica already mentioned that even though manufacturing contracted in May, this contraction was as deep as in most Europ...

​GULF WEEKLY: WTO backs Qatar, Sabic deal restructured, oil rises on compliance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Jun 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rises on signs of improving OPEC+ compliance. * Coronavirus cases grew very rapidly in Saudi for a second week, but improved elsewhere. * Bahraini holdings of US Trea...

Corporates in Hong Kong
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Jun 2020

China is proposing changes to the Basic Law that will fundamentally alter Hong Kong. Although the proposals for the new security law have not been outlined in detail, they are likely to include further close monitoring of behavior in general, increased intervention in the legal system by Beijing,...

China webinar featuring Michael Pettis - Without a target, what will impel growth?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Jun 2020

China webinar featuring Michael Pettis - Without a target, what will impel growth?​ Michael Pettis discusses the impact of the coronavirus on China's official growth targeting and its real economy.

Russia lifts ban on Telegram
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2020

On June 18 Moscow announced that its 2 year ban on messaging service Telegram is over. The attempt to block it mostly failed. This might explain the decision. Roskomnadzor (the state communications regulator) said that the decision was because the owner Pavel Durov is now willing to co-operate on...

Leader of Kazakhstan has coronavirus. What if he dies?
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2020

On June 18 it was announced that Nursultan Nazarbayev has coronavirus. Nazarbayev has the official title Leader of the Nation. He ruled the country as president from 1991 to 2019. Strenuous efforts were made to keep him safe from coronavirus. The outlook for an 80-year-old already in poor health ...

More problems for Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jun 2020

The arrest of Fabrício Queiroz, a former aide to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Republicanos-RJ) during the time he served as state deputy in Rio de Janeiro (RJ), does not involve President Jair Bolsonaro. However, it does bring constraints to the Planalto Palace for the alleged involvement of the pre...

EU sanctions over Crimea prolonged by a year
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jun 2020

On June 18 the EU decided to extend sanctions on Russia by 12 months. The sanctions are over Crimea. Russia says that Crimea is an integral part of its territory. The EU disputes this. Most exports from Crimea are banned. The EU cannot export most items to Crimea. EU companies cannot invest in Cr...

Russian consumer spending close to pre-crisis levels
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jun 2020

On June 17 Sberbank released statistics for consumer spending last week. Spending on items in the first week of June was only 8% below what it was in June 2019. In the second week of June spending on goods was 4% above the same week in 2019. Spending on services is still lower than usual. Rosstat...

Armistice between the powers
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jun 2020

The decision of the Minister of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Alexandre de Moraes, to ask for the breach of bank secrecy of federal deputies Bia Kicis (PSL-DF), Carla Zambelli (PSL-SP), Cabo Junio Amaral (PSL-MG), Otoni de Paula (PSC-RJ), Daniel Silveira (PSL-RJ), Carolina de Toni (PSL-SC), Al...

BCRP asks Congress to shelf Bill calling for loan and interest payments moratorium
PERU · In Brief · 17 Jun 2020

Last night, Banco Central de Reserva del Peru (BCRP)’s Governor, Julio Velarde, sent a strong letter to the Head of Congress’ Consumer Defense Commission and asked to shelf the draft Bill that proposes to suspend bank loan and interest payments for 120 days.He said that this bill instead of benef...

The new CNE: a political offensive
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jun 2020 · 1 response

On 12 June 2020, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice hastily appointed the new leadership of the National Electoral Council (CNE), ahead of its self-imposed deadline. It also instructed the new CNE to reform the Organic Electoral Processes Law, a duty that can only be discharged by the National Assem...

Kyrgyzstan's prime minister resigns
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2020

On June 15 the Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan resigned over a criminal investigation into corruption. Muhammadkalyi Abylgaziev said his resignation was because the issue was distracting from the government's agenda and his action should not be taken to indicate culpability. He allegedly allocated r...

US and EU impose new sanctions on Russia and other Syria backers
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2020

On June 17 the United States' and EU's new sanctions on Syria's supporters came into effect. The sanctions penalize any company, institution or individual that does business with Syria. In the US the law is called the Caesar Act.Russia will be impacted by this as well as China, Iran, Iraq, Lebano...

Russia stands by Iran
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2020

On June 16 Moscow said that Russia supports Iran in the face of enhanced US sanctions. The Iranian economy was indisputably reeling even before coronavirus. The US is seeking to extend an arms embargo on Iran. Moscow described the embargo as unlawful. Russia stands by Iran her ally in Syria.Russi...

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