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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

South Africa’s Budget 2025 uncertainty continues
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Apr 2025

The turbulence surrounding South Africa’s 2025 Budget has shown no signs of easing. Initially postponed from its traditional February slot to March 12—marking an unprecedented delay—the Budget has continued to face intense political debate, particularly over the proposed value-added tax (VAT) inc...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Q1 2025 GDP maintains slowdown trend, growing just 0.6% YoY according to timely figures
MEXICO · In Brief · 30 Apr 2025

Q1 2025 GDP maintains slowdown trend, growing just 0.6% YoY due to industrial contraction and weakening services According to timely figures from INEGI, Mexico’s GDP in Q1 2025 posted weak annual growth of 0.6% (seasonally adjusted), similar to the previous quarter and nearly one percentage point...

The União Progressista merger party has been formed, and Congress should resume at full speed next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Apr 2025

Yesterday, April 29, the União Brasil and Progressista Party (PP) formally launched a party federation, signaling support for the opposition despite both parties' holding ministerial positions in President Lula’s government. The federation will initially be jointly led by PP President Ciro Noguei...

After Trump's tariffs
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Apr 2025

The world was shaken by the tariffs imposed by US President Trump. While they may take time to be fully implemented (if they are fully implemented) the news has hit exporters around the world, with the export performance of each country under close review to see how big the impact of these tariff...

Negative GDP growth reported for Q1
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2025

Preliminary, seasonally and day-adjusted GDP data shows -0.2% qoq, -0.4% yoy real growth for Q1, as reported this morning. This came after +0.6% qoq, +0.1% yoy in Q4, and 0.5% growth in full-year 2024. In an unusually brief statement, KSH only said that Q1 growth was supported by services but hel...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 30 Apr 2025

Apr 17 The Parliament: The Upper Chamber of the Parliament of Kazakhstan has ratified the agreement with the CIS on free trade in the services sector. Ministry of Trade: Kazakhstan has not yet discussed the issue of retaliatory tariff increases on imports. President: During a telephone conversati...

Modest recovery faces internal and external challenges
ISRAEL · Report · 29 Apr 2025

Israel’s economy continued to expand in the first quarter of 2025, although the level of activity remained below its potential trajectory. Despite the ongoing recovery, the economy has clearly not yet returned to full productive capacity. On the geopolitical front, the overall risk environment...

Trump’s peace deal: a fairy tale that ends in failure
UKRAINE · Report · 29 Apr 2025

Despite the hullabaloo over "peace deal" progress over the past month, nothing has fundamentally changed: Russia continues its intense missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities and towns, and heavy fighting along the frontline persists. U.S. President Donald Trump's "peace by force" appr...

The latest poll shows a slight decline in Lula’s disapproval rating, the União Progressista merger party should be formalized today, and Lula is expected to meet with union leaders today, ahead of the Labor Day holiday on May 1
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2025

The latest Latam Pulse Brazil/AtlasIntel poll, released yesterday, April 28, shows a slight decline in President Lula’s (PT) disapproval rating. Although disapproval remains higher than approval, the negative rating fell from 53.6% to 50.1%. Today, União Brasil (UB) President Antônio Rueda and Pr...

Slowdown and trepidation
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Apr 2025

El Salvador’s economic trends in 2024 looked like a return to the long-run results characteristic of the pre-pandemic decade: relatively weak economic activity, growth of 2% to 2.5% y/y; weak public sector results, leading to very high public debt; and worries about long-run fiscal sustainability...

Economics: Consumer confidence extends its slide as employment weakens; a further erosion of consumption is possible
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2025

Mexico’s consumer confidence index deteriorated in its latest reading, prompting some analysts to note that it foreshadows a greater deceleration of private consumption for the coming months. It is important to consider that the index allows anticipating the behavior of consumption in certain co...

Fiscal cost of election campaign spending increases
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Apr 2025

The other day, Economy Minister Nagy confirmed that the members of armed services (soldiers, policemen, etc., about 100k people) will be entitled to another one-time bonus payment, equal to 6-month worth of salaries, in February next year, and that the government are going to earmark some HUF450b...

Politics: The National Development Plan—where is Mexico headed?
MEXICO · Report · 28 Apr 2025

Mexico’s immediate future will largely be determined by the National Development Plan (NDP). The 2025-2030 version of the plan was recently approved by Morena and its allies in Congress. The plan had sparked optimism in some business circles given the perception—and hope—that President Claudia Sh...

The PL rethinks the Amnesty Bill and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Apr 2025

The Labor Day holiday on Thursday, May 1, is expected to slow political and judicial activity in Brasília. On Tuesday, April 29, the PP and União Brasil will formalize the creation of their new party federation, União Progressista. The PSDB and Podemos may also announce a merger. On Saturday, May...

Inflation: bad now, higher uncertainty ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Apr 2025

In recent months, there has been an acceleration in underlying inflation measures and an increase in the diffusion index. Industrial goods prices have also accelerated, reflecting the depreciation of the real throughout 2024. Since exchange rate pass-through occurs with a lag, it is possible that...

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