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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Political spectrum shapes up in Georgia in the run-up to the Oct elections
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Sep 2024

We stay on topic with Georgia as we transition from economics, which we discussed last week, to politics and, in particular, the upcoming Oct 26th Parliamentary Elections. The political spectrum has already shaped up, with three opposition coalitions facing the ruling Georgian Dream. While the la...

China’s Struggling Consumer
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Sep 2024

Some Recent consumer data shows the Chinese economy steadily weakening. We look at several key data points pointing to the decline. Declining film box office revenue: The totals for film revenue is down 43 percent for the three months from June through August. According to a senior film exe...

Government outlines reform proposals for taxes, labor and electricity
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 12 Sep 2024

The key draft laws of President Luis Abinader’s economic reform program have been developed in recent weeks, with tax, labor and electrical sector reforms delineated. The proposed new laws are to be sent to Congress for consideration in coming weeks. The goal of the tax reform plan is to incr...

Balance of payments and budget remain reasonably stable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Sep 2024

The CBR reported that the current account surplus reached $40.5 bln in 8M24 (in August alone, it was $2.5 bln). As the oil prices have been on a downward trend since July, Russia’s exports also declined, having reached $33.0 bln in August (in May and June, exports were about $36.6 and $35.4 bln)....

The House should approve the payroll tax relief bill today, the House approved the “fuels of the future” bill, and Pacheco is still unlikely to accept an impeachment request against Justice de Moraes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Sep 2024

The House is expected to conclude today the vote on the bill addressing payroll tax relief. The bill could be signed into law shortly. Another important bill approved by the House deals with the "fuels of the future," which establishes national programs for green diesel, sustainable aviation fuel...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Sep 2024

The situation in the FX market improved. The CBR efforts supported by the market participants helped to restore regular flow between OTC and the exchanges. As a result, the spread between domestic and international USD/CNY rates evaporated. On top of that, the CNY money market in Russia stabilize...

Budget stalemate; what now?
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 11 Sep 2024 · 2 responses

On September 11th, the economic committees of the House and the Senate did not come to an agreement on the size of the national budget for 2025. Votes were insufficient to approve the size proposed by the Government, but votes also came short to reduce its size to a specific number. Even though t...

Today is the deadline for Congress to approve the payroll tax relief extension, the União Brasil and PDT parties reached an agreement for the House succession race, and the CCJ analyzed the bill on January 8 pardons
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2024

Today marks the deadline for Congress to approve the extension of payroll tax relief for companies and small municipalities. The STF granted the government's request that the relief must identify sources to maintain it. The expectation is that the bill will be approved and sent for presidential s...

More clarity about PM Orbán’s casting of key policy positions
HUNGARY · Report · 10 Sep 2024

PM Orbán has just revealed a bit more about his plans regarding key policy positions after Mr. Matolcsy’s expected departure from the MNB in March 2025. The other day, he said that one of his government ministers will take over the MNB, and another one will take responsibility for the newly re-me...

President Lula announced the new Minister of Human Rights, the House approved the urgent status for the payroll tax bill, and the União Brasil party will meet to discuss the succession race in the House
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2024

Yesterday, President Lula confirmed on his social media profiles that the new Minister of Human Rights will be State Deputy Macaé Evaristo (PT-MG). She will take over for Silvio Almeida, who was removed from the position after facing accusations of sexual harassment. The Lower House approved the ...

Economics: Toll of peso depreciation on public finances and inflation sets a shaky stage for the incoming presidential administration
MEXICO · Report · 10 Sep 2024

After a relatively long period of stability following the Covid pandemic there has been a significant depreciation of the exchange rate, beginning the day after the June 2 elections and accelerating considerably in recent weeks. A series of internal factors have contributed to the softening of...

Why is the forint weaker early this week?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Sep 2024

The forint spent the past one-month period in the state of spectacular stability, the EURHUF hovering in a narrow range between 390-395, a level which everyone appeared to be satisfied with. But starting last night, it suddenly weakened to EURHUF 396-398, which is no big move but a bit unusual. A...

The president highlighted key initiatives of his government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Sep 2024

The House is preparing for the last concentrated effort week before the municipal elections. A one-week-per-month system for discussing priority issues was implemented due to the October elections. In September, the expectation is for votes on issues considered crucial for both the government and...

Politics: Judicial Reform and moves to eliminate autonomous agencies spark widespread opposition
MEXICO · Report · 09 Sep 2024 · 1 response

Although President Lopez Obrador and President-Elect Claudia Sheinbaum feel, perhaps justly, that they have wind in their sails following Morena’s impressive showing on a national and local level in the June 2 elections, opposition to their moves aiming to eliminate the Autonomous Constitutional ...

Running Out Of Options
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Sep 2024 · 1 response

In its last Copom meeting, the Central Bank forecasted inflation at 3.2% in the 12-month period to March 2026, assuming an unchanged policy rate. Since then, economic activity has been stronger than expected, accelerating in the second quarter, while the unemployment rate and capacity utilization...

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