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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation lower in February but still remains above expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2020

CPI-inflation for February came out at 4.4% yoy this morning. The not negligible good news is that it indeed fell from 4.7% yoy in January, which was a big negative surprise then. But the bad news is that it did not shrink at the rate expected by the MNB (to 4.2% yoy) or the analyst consensus (4....

Disinflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Mar 2020

We revise down our estimate for February 2020 inflation to 21 percent from 31 percent, meaning we now estimate disinflation. We also revise down our estimate for January inflation, to 67 percent from 71 percent. These numbers compound to an accumulated inflation rate for the first two months of t...

Coronavirus threatens to depress growth
PERU · Report · 09 Mar 2020

Nine parties will be represented in Congress for the next 16 months, led by a new informal alliance of Acción Popular, Alianza para el Progreso, Somos Perú and Podemos Perú, which together hold 69 of the 130 seats. This majority will allow them to name the president and vice presidents of Congres...

Economics: Pemex ‒ even worse than 2018
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2020 · 1 response

This week we are revisiting a topic we touched on three weeks ago in offering a preliminary assessment of Petróleos Mexicanos’ latest quarterly and full-year results, which for 2019 revealed a further deterioration of the company’s operational and financial health. The report showed some areas of...

Impact of the oil price rout on Venezuela
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 09 Mar 2020

The collapse of oil prices significantly worsens Venezuela’s already dire conditions. Oil output is falling, albeit at a slower pace than a year ago, when two nationwide blackouts compounded the effect of US sanctions. Current changes in Pdvsa’s organizational structure and staffing are unlikely ...

Tension between the branches and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Mar 2020

Minister Paulo Guedes is expected to send a Tax Reform proposal to Congress. On Wednesday, March 11, he will take part in a public hearing in the Joint Committee on Tax Reform. Revised GDP projections for 2020 will be released. Congress analyzes bills from the Executive on the Compulsory Budget. ...

2020 – Another Year of Weak Growth and Low Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 09 Mar 2020

The Coronavirus outbreak is a supply shock, against which central banks have few tools. If the world were facing a systemic banking crisis, like in 2008-09, there would be a risk of a global recession, but in the current situation there is simply a risk of greater deceleration of growth. It isn’t...

GDP and Coronavirus – Another Factor to Frustrate Growth in 2020
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Mar 2020

On the heels of the GDP growth of only 1.1% in 2019, now comes concern over the effects of Coronavirus epidemics in various countries. This is predominantly a supply shock on a worldwide scale, which is more heavily affecting the industry of countries that are integrated in global supply chains. ...

Politics: The potential cost of Covid-19 inaction
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2020

It has been just over a week since the first confirmed case in Mexico of Covid-19 was reported, followed in short order by five more, and the detection of 26 people suspected of carrying the virus. No one has died of the disease to date, and all confirmed cases were contracted while outside the c...

Last rate hold decision was a 5-1 vote
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Mar 2020

The last rate hold decision was a 5-1 vote by the MPC, with 5 members of the opinion that growth is at potential, the labor market tight and inflation expected to reach the lower end of target in about one year. These five were in favor of continued FX intervention as the necessary tool, in light...

Is China going to be forced to lower its growth target?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 09 Mar 2020 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The IMF is now projecting a 5.5 percent GDP growth rate for 2020, down from the 6.0 percent it projected in January. Officials there say that they expect growth in the first and second quarters to be so bad that it would become all but impossible to...

Russia: Ready for Low Oil Price
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2020 · 1 response

As the oil price (Brent) touched $30/bbl on March 9 in the aftermath of OPEC+ agreement falling apart, obvious concerns emerged about the Russian budget and to some extent the balance of payments. The latter is likely to stay positive as the ruble immediately weakened which will pressure imports....

Slowing growth and political instability will likely delay fiscal consolidation
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Mar 2020

The current account reached 3.8% of GDP in 2019, with net FDI contributing an additional 2.6% of GDP. Despite strong fundamentals, the shekel has weakened by 3.2% (against the basket) in the past two weeks on sharp market volatility. The MPC hinted that some form of monetary loosening is being co...

Russian Ruble crashes
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2020

On March 9 Russia woke up to the RUB having dropped 10% overnight. The currency has lost value dramatically due to the fall in oil prices. This is a repercussion of the breakdown in Russia's talks with OPEC. Benchmark Brent crude is at USD 33. This is the lowest RUB value since 2016. It is 74.9 t...

​Gulf in panic: Crude and equities crash, and Saudi princes arrested
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 08 Mar 2020 · 1 response

Oil drops by $10 to the lowest since February 2016 as the OPEC+ deal collapses.A sustained oil dip poses serious risks for Oman, Bahrain and even Saudi Arabia.Gulf equities suffered one of their biggest routs on Sunday, including Saudi down 8.3%.The arrest of senior Saudi royals mitigates risks t...

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