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It's the "base effect", stupid!
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jan 2020

This is an econ-only Weekly, as our politics author returned from a conference with a severe flu and is out of commission at the moment. We very much apologize for the inconvenience, but we shall, as usual, continue with updates during the week. Industrial production, in sequential terms, has ...

Turbulence for Vodafone Idea next week
INDIA · In Brief · 19 Jan 2020

Vodafone Idea is a large telecom company. For 2018-19, their consolidated revenue was Rs.0.42 trillion and their balance sheet size was Rs.2.48 trillion. Their profit after tax has been negative for the three latest years (2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19). In the latest year, the profit after tax wa...

Russian car sales down
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2020

On January 15 statistics released by the Association of European Businesses (AEB) revealed that car sales in Russia fell by 2.3%. This is despite modest economic growth. Only 1.76 million automobiles were sold in a country with over 140 million people. AEB forecast that sales will decline a furth...

Russia's main airport opens new terminal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2020

Moscow Sheremetyevo Airport has opened terminal C. This is the busiest airport in the country and the 8th busiest in Europe. 50 million people used the airport last year. The target is 80 million. The terminal cost USD 500 million which was 55% over budget. Russia's flag carrier is Aeroflot. Aero...

​Gulf weekly: Oman’s new sultan, Kuwait’s budget and Iran’s woes
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Jan 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Sultan Haitham succeded in Oman and was well received by markets; we are cautiously optimistic that he will decentralize power and implement overd...

Ukrainian PM offers resignation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2020

On January 17 the Prime Minister of Ukraine suggested that he step down after a recording of him criticizing the president was leaked. PM Honcharuk has only been en poste since 2019. President Zelenskiy must now decide whether to accept Honcharuk's offer. Billionaire Ihor Kolomoisky openly despis...

A robust economy with political difficulties
HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Jan 2020

Our new quarterly forecast once again includes a moderate upward revision of GDP growth rates for 2019-2021. Higher growth figures appear well justified on account of the unabated vigor of manufacturing, construction/fixed investment and real wage/consumption growth, despite all sorts of weakness...

Zelenskiy leaves Premier Honcharuk in place
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Jan 2020

President Zelenskiy decided to leave Oleksiy Honcharuk in the Prime-Minister's chair for now according to the President Office. Honcharuk submitted a resignation request today following the scandal with the records of his talks. Journalists juggled a variety of versions of who might have recorded...

China’s local debt clean-up squad
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Jan 2020

The four original Asset Management Companies (AMCs) established to handle bank non-performing loans have been expanded with the addition of more than 60 local AMCs. They are integral to the disposal of bank NPLs, which are increasing in size. The shift from central to local AMCs means Beijing is ...

Ruble bonds: The upside is limited
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jan 2020

The Russian market rallied at the beginning of the year. As a result, OFZ yields in the long end of the curve dropped almost to the level of the CBR key rate. Coupled with the strengthening of the ruble observed in December–January, it makes ruble sovereigns less attractive for international inve...

Taal Volcano eruption
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Jan 2020

Five days after the eruption of Taal Volcano, situated in one of the most popular domestic tourist destinations some 60km south of Metro Manila, Philippine authorities continue to remain on high alert for the possibility of a hazardous explosive eruption (i.e., Alert Level 4, 5 being the highest)...

The South African Reserve Bank gives the economy a boost with a 25 bp cut in interest rates
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Jan 2020

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 6.5% to 6.25%, and therefore the prime lending rate from 10% to 9.75%, during its first sitting of the year. Prior to this, the last time the MPC had made an ad...

MPC does the expected, very likely not done yet
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Jan 2020

Broadly in line with our expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee reduced the policy rate (weekly repo) once again today and kept the reduction relatively measured, at a 75 bps clip. The policy rate is now down to 11.25% (simple), which brings the cumulative drop since last July to 1275 bps (s...

Will the Cabinet resign?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Jan 2020

Talks about potential resignation of the Honcharuk Cabinet have been circulating already for several months. Allegedly President Office anticipated some toxic deliveries to be completed, like land reform, to replace the Cabinet. Problems with budget revenues as well as falling industry only heat ...

Russian PM and cabinet resigns as Putin announces constitutional shift
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jan 2020

On January 15 the Russian Prime Minister and cabinet all resigned. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev had even been touted by some to be the next president – though his single term in that role in 2008-2012 was not judged a success. Much more likely now is a different successor and constitutional ref...

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