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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: August indicators confirm significant deceleration, Pemex deterioration and risky monetary stance
MEXICO · Report · 03 Sep 2024

Economic activity continued to slow in recent months as evidenced by a slight downward revision of second quarter GDP results, the onset of a weakening trend that could worsen should potential risks on both the external and internal fronts materialize. The greatest threat domestically involve...

Politics: Morena consolidates congressional majority in push to rush through sweeping reforms in first days of new Congress
MEXICO · Report · 03 Sep 2024

Late last week, the Federal Electoral Tribunal signed off on the composition of chambers of Congress previously approved by the INE, sealing a qualified majority for Morena and its allies in the Chamber of Deputies with 72.8% of the lower chamber’s seats. Although the incumbent camp was left thr...

Azerbaijan holds parliamentary elections, including for the first time in Nagorno-Karabakh
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Sep 2024

On September 1, Azerbaijan held parliamentary elections. They were originally supposed to be held in November but were brought forward due to Azerbaijan’s high-profile hosting of COP-29. This was the first Azerbaijani election to include the reclaimed territories in Nagorno-Karabakh. 42,000 Azerb...

Activity flat in Q2, broadly as expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Sep 2024

The Turkish economy grew by 2.5% annually in the second quarter of the year, somewhat lower than expectations, but expanded slightly over the previous quarter (0.1%), which was somewhat better than expectations – including ours -- of modest contraction (Graph 1). As usual, we focus on the sequent...

Where were we?
TURKEY · Report · 01 Sep 2024

The politics author dedicates his contribution to the first post-holiday Weekly Tracker to going over important events that transpired in August. Doubts about Simsek’s job security linger, while there is little reason to believe the soon-to-be-unveiled revised Medium Term Economic Program will co...

High hopes for Guatemala, as neighbors struggle
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Aug 2024

In Guatemala, private sector confidence has improved since President Bernardo Arevalo took office in January, and expectations within the country are high. In Bank of Guatemala surveys, most respondents said they expected the economic situation to improve in the next six months. Arevalo is workin...

BoI increasingly concerned regarding fiscal policy
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Aug 2024

1. Rates remained on hold this week, coupled with a hawkish tone regarding inflationary risks and fiscal concerns. 2. Private consumption rebounded in July, supporting tax revenues but also fueling inflationary pressure. 3. The MoF will lengthen the average duration of bond issuance in Sept...

GULF WEEKLY: Moody’s raises Oman’s outlook to Positive, Kuwait has a new finance minister, oil falls despite outages in Libya
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Aug 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil is trading down this week despite disruption to Libyan production because of a new political crisis. * PIF renewed a $15bn syndicated credit facility for 3-5 years. * India wants to renegotiate its UAE Cepa to mitigat...

The government will submit the 2025 budget proposal to Congress today, the STF has given a 10-day extension on the deadline for the parliamentary fund transfers issue, and Bolsonaro is organizing a protest on September 7
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Aug 2024

Today, the government will submit the 2025 budget proposal to the National Congress. This week, to balance the accounts, the Ministry of Planning announced a thorough review of social and pension programs, which could result in cuts of R$ 25.9 billion. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) has decided ...

Essential CIS Politics: September 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 30 Aug 2024

* Ukraine makes an incursion into Russia, while Russia advances in Donbas. * Ukraine enters restricted default. * Georgia plans to ban opposition parties. * The USA plans to sanction Russia further. * Founder of Telegram arrested in France.

Rates on hold on inflation risks and fiscal concerns
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Aug 2024

Geopolitics: Although the intensity of the war in Gaza appears to be winding down, a cease-fire and hostage return remain elusive. Netanyahu insists on maintaining a presence on the Philadelphia Corridor in order to prevent renewed transfer of weapons from Egypt into Gaza. Negotiations are contin...

Aug CCA Highlights: Armenian 1H GDP growth revised down, Azerbaijan gets IG status from Fitch, Uzbekistan's GDP surpasses US$100bn, Tajikistan upgraded by S&P
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 Aug 2024

We comment on the key macro and political events in the CCA region in Aug: Armenia: 2Q GDP grows by 6.4% YoY Armenia: Fitch affirms Armenia at BB- with a stable outlook Armenia: Central bank cuts refinancing rate by 25bpts to 7.75% Armenia: Inflation edges up to 1.4% YoY in Jul Armenia: Bu...

The DR Central Bank reduces its monetary policy rate by 25 basis points
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 29 Aug 2024

Today, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) decided to reduce its monetary policy interest rate (MPR) by 25 basis points, decreasing from 7.00% to 6.75% annually. Likewise, the rate of the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) goes from 7.50% to 7.25% annually, while t...

Russian foreign policy: latest shifts
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 29 Aug 2024

Russian diplomatic influence has declined considerably since 2022. While Putin is keen to demonstrate that Russia has more friends than its opponents claim, Russia’s diplomatic situation is not as friendless as the EU and US like to pretend. In former Soviet Central Asia, the five nations have...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Aug 2024

The ruble lost about 2% against the dollar in the past two weeks. Military escalation seems to have been one of the main reasons for this move. Meanwhile, the ruble has moved closer to its fundamentally justified level. Interestingly, the spread between CNY/RUB on the exchanges and OTC started to...

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