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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GDP growth expected to reach nearly 3% in Q319
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Nov 2019

Recent economic indicators suggest that GDP growth remained fairly strong in Q319; we estimate close to 3% saar. GDP growth is being fueled by steady PC demand and positive net exports. Capital flows continue to support a strong shekel, with robust FDI and fairly neutral financial flows. In poli...

Consumption Will Continue to Be the Engine for Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Nov 2019 · 3 responses

With the strong headwinds coming from the global economic slowdown, the total impossibility of any fiscal stimulus, and the still-repressed level of capital expenditures caused by the high uncertainty, household consumption is the only force that can boost recovery. Although fitfully, consumption...

Shaky start to Russia's sovereign internet
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2019

On November 1 Russia's sovereign internet came into effect. Russia can now cut itself from the worldwide web. This sparked protests earlier this year. The government says the purpose of the new law is to prevent the dissemination of disinformation and to thwart hacker attacks. Russian internet pr...

​Gulf weekly: Aramco is a go, central banks mirror Fed, PMs quit in Lebanon and Iraq
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Nov 2019

Economically the regional focus was on Saudi Arabia this week as Aramco formally announced its IPO, the annual Future Investment Initiative conference drew in executives and world leaders and new fiscal data was released. Meanwhile, political turmoil continued in the periphery, with protests brin...

On a wing and a prayer (again)
TURKEY · Forecast · 03 Nov 2019 · 1 response

As the end of 2019 approaches, the future is cast in two radically different narratives. Ankara wants us to believe that the worst is over, thanks to all the right policy interventions of the past year or so, and the very successful “rebalancing” that is now complete should pave the way toward 5%...

MH17 suspect says Holland tried to bribe him to change his story
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2019

Vladimir Tsemakh is suspected by some of shooting down flight MH17. The Malaysia Airlines flight was blown up in 2014 causing over 200 deaths. Ukraine blames pro-Russian rebels and the Russian Government blames the Ukrainian Army. Tsemakh is a Ukrainian citizens who served in a pro-Russian militi...

Investment Forum near Ukrainian Frontline
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2019

On October 29 over 700 businesspeople traveled to the Ukrainian city of Mariupol for an investment forum. The city is only 12 miles from the frontline. President Zelensky addressed the forum. He vowed that the government would protect investors and root out corruption. Donbass reconstruction was ...

Russia provides vital support to Venezuela
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2019

Russia has been sending hundreds of millions of USD and EUR in cash to Venezuela. US sanctions have all but cut off Venezuela from the world financial system. From May 2018 to April 2019 six shipments were sent by plane. The money was delivered to Venezuela's development bank. Moscow is eager to ...

Davids beat the Goliaths
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Nov 2019

Many an analyst is puzzled that the Central Bank has been holding interest rates constant, while its regional counterparts have started cutting. And the fact that the Bank’s next move next year might be a hike is considered by some to add insult to injury. But we don’t see a puzzle: Colombia is i...

Disengagement proceedings in Ukraine Conflict
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Nov 2019

On October 29 the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) stated that the Ukrainian soldiers and pro-Moscow rebels had both withdrawn from the front line near Zolote. This one of the steps set out by the peace agreement signed in October. This should lead to a Normandy Format ...

A new fiscal ceiling is approved, the economy stalls and a dangerous Constitutional reform is underway
PANAMA · Report · 01 Nov 2019

The Legislative Assembly approved the revision of the Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL) on October 28. The proposal approved by the Cabinet was enacted without modifications. Minister Alexander made a technical presentation in which he described the situation of the public finances and the need for...

UAE: Economy likely to overcome weak real estate sector
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Nov 2019

Weakness in the UAE’s real estate sector is unlikely to spread to the wider economy as government measures and the 2020 World Expo should provide relief and banks are well insulated. A new committee has been formed in Dubai, new property ownership rules have been introduced in Abu Dhabi and th...

Business cycle conditions in Jul-Aug-Sep 2019
INDIA · Report · 01 Nov 2019

The best measure of business cycle conditions in India is the coincident indicator, which is a linear combination of well measured underlying indicators. The coincident indicator deteriorated in Jul-Aug-Sep 2019, to 3.78 per cent below trend. The leading indicator gives us a sense of how the c...

South Africa awaits in trepidation for Moody’s assessment of its credit tonight
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Nov 2019

Later today Moody’s rating agency is expected to make a pronouncement on South Africa’s sovereign credit rating, and this is after the agency decided to skip publishing the country’s review twice already. The stakes are high given that Moody’s Baa3 rating with a stable outlook is the country’s on...

Naftogaz unbundling, Nord Stream 2 and new gas transit contract
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Nov 2019

Yesterday, on October 31, Verkhona Rada completed a critical move for efficient gas transit negotiations with Moscow. Current, 10-years gas transit contract with Gazprom expires in two months. Kremlin has been getting prepared for this day already for many years. Russians have built Nord Stream, ...

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