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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

BAHRAIN: Austerity will fall short of targets and more Gulf funding will be needed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Oct 2019

We don’t think that Bahrain’s ambitious Fiscal Balance Program will come close to its targets due to austerity fatigue and sharply lower oil prices. Instead, the deficit will remain around 5-7% of GDP, and debt-to-GDP will rise to 110% by 2022, requiring about $15bn in financing in 2019-22. B...

CHILE: ​New cabinet, old problem
CHILE · In Brief · 29 Oct 2019

Sebastián Piñera continued with his efforts to address the ten-day old protest movement by announcing a major cabinet shuffle. This was not unexpected. The ouster of Interior Minister (and presidential cousin) Andres Chadwick was one of the principal demands of last Friday’s million-person march....

Xi Jinping versus Deng Xiaoping
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Oct 2019 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: Although I personally do not expect anything new to come out of the Fourth Plenum, currently in session, that suggests that there will be any change in Xi’s approach to leadership, I can assure my reader that I would have no way of knowing whether or...

SA Government moves to deal with Eskom and energy conundrum
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 29 Oct 2019

Minister Pravin Gordhan today released his government’s Special Policy Paper on Eskom, its restructuring, and the country’s energy transition over the next decade. Key and critical interventions are as follows: Eskom’s debt will be restructured in consultation with the stakeholders, but underpinn...

Medium-term effects of a long-term protest
CHILE · Report · 28 Oct 2019

To the deteriorated external environment, we must add the wave of protests. So far, we do not see reasons for major concern, at least from a medium-term macroeconomic perspective, although October’s Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) will certainly be considerably lower than it might have been. ...

Pension Reform ‒ what is yet to come and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Oct 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro returns to Brazil after a trip to Asia and the Middle East. In Congress, expectations are growing regarding the government’s post-Pension agenda, which includes items related to the Federative Pact, the golden rule, constitutional funds and Administrative Reform. On Wedne...

Economics: Risk of ineffective countercyclical spending plans
MEXICO · Report · 28 Oct 2019

In the context of the low economic growth expected for 2019 and 2020, and reduced public finance margins, the finance ministry has announced its intention to introduce a countercyclical fiscal mechanism that would redefine the function of the Budgetary Revenue Stabilization Fund and the possibili...

Politics: The tale and toll of Culiacan
MEXICO · Report · 28 Oct 2019

Myriad doubts remain as to how, when and by whom the October 17 police-military operation in Culiacan was planned and executed, and even who decided to sound retreat and release the prime subject slated for arrest, Ovidio Guzmán, the son of cartel leader Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, who is serving ...

Surgutneftgaz oil shares rise dramatically
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2019

Between October 23 and 25 shares in Surgutneftgaz rose 25%! Shares in the company also rose very fast at the beginning of September. The September rise was just after Surgutneftgaz registered a subsidiary called Rion to invest in securities. Surgut is the third biggest oil producer in Russia. The...

Public debt growth: The continuous battle
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Oct 2019 · 1 response

Brazil’s gross public debt in relation to GDP is only slightly below 80%, nearly 30 percentage points higher than in 2013, and the main culprit for this growth is the uncontrolled increase of spending. The country needs to achieve reforms leading to control of this spending. To help muster politi...

MPC leans towards a rate cut, but much will depend on inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 28 Oct 2019

Two out of five MPC members voted for a rate cut on October 7, and two more envisioned the possible need for loosening in the future. A rate cut is possible on November 25, but could be delayed to Q1 2020 if October's CPI surprises on the upside (as we expect). Labor data is pointing to weaker de...

Russia launches icebreaker warship
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2019

On October 25 Russia announced the existence of a new combat icebreaker named Ivan Papanin. The purpose of the vessel is to defend the Russian Arctic. Earlier in October over 12 000 troops participated in nuclear war drills in the Russian Far North. Russian claims some of the Arctic Shelf althoug...

It is official, Alberto Fernández is the new president-elect
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 28 Oct 2019 · 1 response

Past midnight, with 97.1% of the voting tables accounted for and an overall participation rate of 80.9%, it is official now. Alberto Fernández (AF) and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) are the new presidents-elect of Argentina. AF managed to obtain 48% of the votes (surpassing the 45% hurdle ...

Gulf weekly: Business environment improves, Saudi replaces foreign minister
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Oct 2019

Major recent improvements in Gulf business environments were codified in the World Bank’s annual Doing Business Index. Saudi Arabia appointed a new foreign minister and mediated a Yemeni power-sharing deal and Oman held elections. This came amidst another busy week in Middle Eastern politics, wit...

​E-day
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Oct 2019

Today’s results of the general elections in Argentina, which are expected to be published between 9 pm and midnight, will put an end to the political limbo that emerged after the surprising result of the primaries in August. The electoral outlook that had been previously nourished by polls, drast...

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