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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Danylyuk has resigned
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Sep 2019

On Friday, Sept 27, Alex Danylyuk, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security Council wrote on his Facebook page that he confirms his resignation. Press-secretary of Volodymyr Zelenskiy wrote on her page that Danylyuk has submitted a request for resignation before President departed to the US. Toda...

Gulf weekly: No US-Iran talks but Abu Dhabi and Bahrain issue bonds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Sep 2019

Tensions with Iran and its allies dominated the agenda once again. There was no discernible progress at the UN General Assembly, where the tone and posturing broadly supported our expectations of only a slow movement towards a new nuclear deal but little enthusiasm for escalating the conflict. Th...

Gazprom has purchased its major subcontractor
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Sep 2019

The Russian natural gas supermajor Gazprom sealed the bargain on buying 100% of Stroygazmontach on September 26. Stroygazmontach is Gazprom's main subcontractor and is controlled by Arkady Rotenberg. The price is reported to be between USD 1.1 and 1.5 billion.Gazprom is thinking about buying anot...

Reality versus perception
TURKEY · Report · 29 Sep 2019 · 2 responses

The Political Analyst issues three serious warnings, which are bullet-pointed below to make sure his message gets across: • Signs of an impending Great Earthquake in Marmara Basin-Istanbul are proliferating. • President Erdogan may be serious in his threat to invade North East Syria very soon, ...

Russia delivers weapons to the Central African Republic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Sep 2019

On September 27 Russia announced it has delivered more weapons to the Central African Republic (CAR). Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explained that the CAR Government needed the arms to fight terrorism. The weapons were provided gratis but Russia will be granted mining rights in recognition of th...

Russia asks NATO to stop nuclear buildup
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Sep 2019

On September 25 Putin asked NATO to stop its deployment of missiles to Europe. Missiles of this type are forbidden pursuant to a US-Russian nuclear agreement but that agreement was annulled on August 2. That was the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). The United States withdrew from i...

Another interest rate cut
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Sep 2019

At its recent Monetary Policy Meeting in September 2019 the Indonesian Central Bank decided to slash the benchmark interest rate once again by 25 basis points, to 5.25%. This is the third interest rate cut in the past three consecutive months. The interest rate cut was driven by the softening of ...

Uncertainty over Russian inflation forecast
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Sep 2019

On September 25 the Russian draft budget was published online. The President held meetings concerning the draft budget. The Ministry of Economic Development forecasts that inflation will be 3.6% by the end of 2019 and 3% by the end of 2020. However, the Bank of Russia predicts inflation will be b...

Regime makes one deal to avoid another
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Sep 2019

The Maduro regime responded to the opposition’s proposal in Norway-mediated talks with weeks of silence and has now announced a separate “partial deal” with a set of minority parties in a “national dialogue for stability and peace”. The opposition’s proposal had aimed to create the conditions ...

Credit and industrial profits – Will shadow banking help?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Sep 2019

China is using many different methods for stimulating the economy, including tax cuts, monetary policy through lower interest rates (RRR and other methods), and targeted lending. However, one of the problems the country faces is the declining effectiveness of the credit it issues through various ...

IMF mission leaves: clarity on Privatbank requested
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Sep 2019

Yesterday, on Sept 26 the IMF mission concluded its technical visit to Ukraine. Media immediately claimed that a ‘no-agreement’ leave is a bad sign. Today there was released a statement, which mentions “…the importance of central bank independence and safeguarding financial stability, as well as ...

Monetary Board cuts policy rates
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Sep 2019

For the third time this year, the Monetary Board reduced policy rates by 25bp, bringing its key overnight borrowing rate to 4%. The rate cut has been widely anticipated even before the US Fed’s own easing action last week. Hence, analysts are now wondering whether this will be the last rate cut f...

​Overview of some key issues in the GCC (conference call summary)
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Sep 2019

This provides a brief overview of how we view the GCC region and some of the key issues in each country, extracted from our conference call, although this is not intended to be anywhere near comprehensive. Oman’s leadership vacuum is hindering reform efforts, especially fiscal ones, but gas outpu...

​Abqaiq attack reveals vulnerabilities which could reduce conflict risks (conference call summary)
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Sep 2019

Production seems to have been restored to pre-attack levels more quickly than expected. However, we remain sceptical about the pledge to restore full theoretical capacity back to pre-attack levels by the end of November. Was Iran involved? Probably in some capacity, although important question ma...

Russian Federal budget surplus is not as big as originally thought
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2019

On September 20 Russia's draft federal budget for 2020-22 was approved. The budget surplus will be lower than was previously believed. GDP is forecast to grow to 1.7% in 2019 but only 0.2% in 2022.Government spending will be USD 305 billion in 2020. That is about 17.3% of GDP. Spending is set to ...

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