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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: What Baja’s "Ley Bonilla" may portend
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jul 2019

A particularly bizarre series of recent events in the state of Baja California raises many questions about the dynamics of party politics at this early stage of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Fourth Transformation, and the tensions building within his own Morena party. Like many other st...

What’s on the government’s agenda after the Pension Reform?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jul 2019

During the first half of the year, all the government’s legislative efforts were focused on the pension reform. The 379 favorable votes in the first floor vote in the Chamber of Deputies did not end the process, but it does mean that a gigantic step has been taken toward final approval. So, what ...

State of the Nation Address 2019
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Jul 2019

The business community should find President Rodrigo Duterte’s fourth State of the National Address (SONA) to its liking. First off, there was no mention of federalism. Second, he promised to push harder with the reform programs started under his administration, stressing especially ease of doing...

Sharp decline in inflation will prevent tightening this year
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Jul 2019

Highlights: June's CPI (-0.6% m/m, 0.8% y/y) came in way below expectations. * Both fresh produce and rental prices surprised on the downside. * Nevertheless, core inflation remained stable at 1.1% y/y. We expect inflation to reach 1.0% in 2019 and 1.1% NTM. * This foreca...

Mono-party ruling: Servant of the People takes an absolute majority in the parliament
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Jul 2019

Election committee has processed 2/3 of votes and we already can see that presidential party Servant of the People has won an absolute majority at the parliament. They have at least 249 seats while only 226 needed to appoint the Cabinet. Attracting independent MPs gives Zelenskiy constitutional m...

SAUDI: IMF forecasts are optimistic - we expect slower growth and larger deficits
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 22 Jul 2019

The IMF just completed its annual Article IV consultation in the Kingdom. We have a broadly similar assessment of recent economic performance, but the IMF 2019 forecasts for both non-oil real GDP growth and the fiscal deficit are a little optimistic. In the longer term, we also see slower growth ...

Exit polls: presidential party wins the parliament
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Jul 2019

Presidential party Servant of the People got 43.9% of support according to exit-polls which is near 126 MP seats out of 225 seats on the party lists. On FPTPs we have reports from the fields that candidates from presidential party have an overwhelming majority. Some journalists estimated that Ser...

The week of the “400s”
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jul 2019

Turkey is formally expelled from the F-35 fighter jet program, but insists on deploying S-400s, largely because Trump demurs at substantive sanctions. This week the visit of a high-level US delegation to Ankara and Trump’s meeting with the US Senators could reshape the crisis. Politics section...

Russia cosying up with Iran
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jul 2019

Iran and Russia share Tiyas Air Base in Syria. They are comrades in arms: fighting for Assad's government and fighting against ISIS. Russian aircraft have airlifted Iranian equipment to Syria.In June 2019 President Rouhani met Putin in Kyrgyzstan. This summit was the Shanghai Co-operation Organiz...

President Ramaphosa's Challenges Getting Close and Personal
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 19 Jul 2019

Ever since assuming the high office of the country, President Ramaphosa has not been short of challenges. Aside from the enormous task of turning the economy around and restoring the integrity and operational efficacy of the machinery of the state which had been left in a poor financial and admin...

A batch of policy initiatives to combat the current financial stress
INDIA · Report · 19 Jul 2019

A package of policy initiatives aimed at addressing the current financial stress came out from the RBI, SEBI and the Ministry of Finance from June 27 to July 6. We look at the stock price response of large private financial firms. The impact is somewhat negative. There may be an element of procyc...

Russian National Wealth Fund might be used for credit
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jul 2019

The Russian Parliament has approved a bill that permits the use of the National Wealth Fund (NWF) to give credit for export. This is unprecedented but is probably consistent with the remit of the NWF. The NWF has often lent money to Russian companies if the NWF's holdings are over 7% of GDP. The ...

Essential CIS Politics: July 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 19 Jul 2019

* Russian economic growth remains unimpressive but a recession seems unlikely. * Widespread protests in Russia have been easily contained, and the authorities have been uncharacteristically lenient. * The new Kazakh president’s first full term has gotten off to a difficult start, with many...

Ukrainian conflict de-escalating
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jul 2019

On July 18 the Ukrainian Government agreed to exchange prisoners with the rebels. Ukraine is letting out 208 people in return for only 69 who will be released by the rebels. It seems the rebels are doing better out of this. The negotiations were brokered by the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk. ...

​QATAR: Moody's credit opinion hints at an upgrade path
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Jul 2019

Underlying trends in Moody’s latest credit opinion point towards a potential upgrade path, despite some negative revisions to its economic forecasts. This is because Qatar's “indicative” rating is now at its highest in at least three years, and we expect it will improve further, creating room for...

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