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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Leading indicator report for Apr-Jun 2019
INDIA · Report · 15 Jul 2019

Using the data now available, we are able to calculate the leading indicator for Apr-Jun 2019, but not the coincident indicator for this same quarter. We see a turning point in business cycle conditions in Q1 2018. The leading indicator gives us a sense of what will happen to the coincident i...

The time has come to start lowering the interest rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Jul 2019 · 1 response

Ambitious objectives are rarely entirely achieved, but in the case of the pension reform, the most recent legislative developments indicate that the country is poised to take an important step ahead. Many actions in the fiscal field will still be necessary to reverse the rising path of the debt/G...

Surprisingly hawkish message from the BoI
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Jul 2019

Highlights: Policy rates remained on hold last week. * The BoI Governor's press conference and the macro forecast reflected a clear tightening bias. Governor Yaron sees the likelihood of a rate hike in "one of the upcoming decisions". He also said that Israel could tighten while other b...

Populism at home, sanctions abroad
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jul 2019

The S-400 crisis entered the next phase, with Ankara beginning to take delivery of some parts, as the Bloomberg claimed that the White House shall announce sanctions in the coming week. This is not the final scene. The politics author believes that Ankara still belabors until false hopes and mist...

Turkey buys Russian missile defense system - weakens NATO
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Jul 2019

Turkey has received the first parts of the Russian S-400 missile defense system. The US lobbied very hard against Turkey purchasing this system. The Turks also want to buy American F-35 fighter planes. The US is deeply worried that Turkey might allow the Russians to examine F-35 planes to assess ...

Electoral kickoff
ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Jul 2019 · 1 response

The electoral campaign for the August 9 open primaries officially started on July 12. As they are mandatory and simultaneous, all candidates have to participate. However, as happened in previous elections, most political parties have already decided who will be their only candidate for the lea...

A kind IMF
ECUADOR · Forecast · 12 Jul 2019

GDP grew 0.6% y/y in Q1 2019, but the economic contraction is evident because q/q it fell 1% in this period. In fact, only exports contributed positively to GDP growth as they rose 3.9% q/q and 3.5% y/y. Private and government consumption, and investment showed negative q/q changes of 1.4%, 4.6% ...

The new administration will tap the market in a few weeks…and initiate a road show to remove Panama from the “gray” list of GAFI
PANAMA · In Brief · 12 Jul 2019

The new economic team announced yesterday that they will test the capital markets with a US$ 2.7 billion placement. The main objective of the transaction is to finance the expected deficit by December and the payment of a big chunk of the arrears to contractors left by the previous government. Th...

QATAR: White House visit provides boost amidst regional boycott
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Jul 2019

The US is Qatar’s most important partner, commercially and politically. Qatar is also surprisingly important to the US, as evidenced by the Emir’s recent high profile reception. Strong US support bolsters Qatar, which is being boycotted by several neighbors. Trump is now very clearly on side, aft...

UAE: Yemen exit should mitigate criticism and risks
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 12 Jul 2019

The UAE is rapidly withdrawing troops from Yemen, having been the largest foreign presence in the south.Its involvement in the war had drawn wide criticism and tarnished its international reputation.Its exit reduces the risk of blowback attacks (drones and missiles) and escalation with Iran, whic...

KUWAIT: Capital markets will gain from MSCI inclusion and a new debt law
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Jul 2019

Kuwait’s upgrade to MSCI emerging market status was enabled by reforms to professionalize the market and attract foreign investors. The impact of these changes, which drove earlier upgrades from FTSE Russell and S&P Dow Jones, has been positive in terms of inflows and performance, which should co...

Zelensky's party cruising to victory in Ukraine, as he speaks with Putin
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jul 2019

President Zelensky's party 'Servant of the People' is set to win easily in elections to the Ukrainian Rada (Parliament). An analysis of the various opinion polls shows that Servant of the People is due to score 47% of the vote. In second place Opposition Platform - For Life us due to win about 11...

The Hong Kong capital channel
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 Jul 2019

Hong Kong is an important center for China’s financial expansion, globalization of the RMB, and trade relations. It is also a center for illegal capital flows and management of the strength of the currency through state proxies. Here we look at Hong Kong’s banking to understand its global lending...

Pension Reform: Breaking down the vote
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2019

The Lower House approved the main text for Pension Reform with 379 votes in favor and 131 against. The landslide vote represents another important victory for the government. It is also a win for Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), who was responsible for securing support. Maia also voted in favor of the prop...

Rumor that Russian domestic shopping company will split
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jul 2019

Two years ago Sberbank and Yandex formed a partnership to promote e-commerce. They created an online market called Beru. Their platform for buying imported goods is called Bringly. Sberbank now considers this a failure but the decision to terminate the partnership is not yet final. In August 2017...

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