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​New dynamics in Syria and Turko-American relationship
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Dec 2018 · 1 response

The agenda is moving at a speed faster than light for me to write the Big Picture piece I’ve been yearning for. Anyway, there is no Big Picture left anymore, Trump has smashed everything into bits and pieces. His sudden and unannounced decision to pull US troops out of Syria, while still subject ...

The RBI governor is likely to find a way to transfer the right amount of money to help the government meet its fiscal targets
INDIA · In Brief · 19 Dec 2018

As a service to our clients, we are reproducing this Op-Ed by Ila Patnaik, which appeared in ThePrint on December 19, 2018. The RBI governor is likely to find a way to transfer the right amount of money to help the government meet its fiscal targets At a time when the Narendra Modi government is ...

Weakened “de facto” president in power starting in January 2019
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Dec 2018

January 10 of next year, the day Maduro begins what he considers his second presidential term, will also mark the day that many of his citizens and the rest of the world will see him as now an officially illegitimate president, one who stayed in power through an undemocratic, illegal process. ...

Correction of fuel prices amid rising core inflation creates policy uncertainty
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Dec 2018

Q3 GDP growth was revised higher in the second estimate, pushing the seasonally adjusted year-on-year rate slightly above 5%. Growth is increasingly propelled by domestic demand rather than the export-driven industrial sector, which suggests that the trade balance must significantly deteriorate. ...

Brazil Politics Conference Call: Challenges facing the new government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2018

How will Brazil President-elect Bolsonaro's new cabinet advance the direction for the country? What are the concerns about the new administration's ability to navigate the press and public administration? How will the final few weeks in this session of Congress set the stage for the legislative a...

Japanese company seeks to build LNG plant
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2018

A Japanese company called Itochu has signed an MoU with Gazprom, Shell and Mitsui to build a Baltic LNG plant. This is surprising since Mitsui and Shell previously felt let down by Gazprom. Russia is eager to access Japanese technology. The plant is not expected to be built soon. Itochu and Gazpr...

Economics: The expanding toll of government uncertainty
MEXICO · Report · 17 Dec 2018

The growing uncertainty economic agents have experienced since it became clear Andrés Manuel López Obrador had been elected president has continued to mount and has been echoed by international ratings agencies as they lowered their outlook on Mexican debt. Not all the apprehension and market tur...

A new communications model and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Dec 2018

On Wednesday, Jair Bolsonaro meets with his cabinet team. On the same day, the Public Ministry of Rio hears Flávio Bolsonaro’s former parliamentary advisory, Fabrício José de Queiroz, who, according to Coaf, has been involved in suspicious financial activity. Congress votes on the 2019 Budget. Th...

Official economic outlook and budget for 2018: In search of lost credibility
MEXICO · Presentation · 17 Dec 2018

The macroeconomic assumptions of the 2019 Economic Package and Public Sector Budget are mostly credible, with domestic and external indicators largely fitting general expectations. In general, AMLO seems to be making a commitment to conduct a solid fiscal policy, which may help him recover some o...

Politics: What a difference an inauguration makes
MEXICO · Report · 17 Dec 2018

The launch of the new government has dramatically changed the country’s mood as the eminently negative sentiments the Peña Nieto government generated during its last years in office have given way to a sense of optimism and even elation among almost two thirds of society. In our latest poll, only...

Russian Central Bank forecasts
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2018

The Russian Central Bank (CBR) stated that inflation is 3.9% which is just below the target of 4%. The CBR has forecast that inflation will rise to at least 5% in the first half of 2019. The VAT increase and the decline of the RUR will contribute to this. Oil prices are down a little and the CBR ...

At the end of an era, searching for new directions...
TURKEY · Presentation · 17 Dec 2018

Turkey’s growth model looks as if it has run out of steam, with recent developments indicating that this phase is looking different (for the worse). We look at Turkey’s recent economic history and give a summary of the country’s current situation. Outline: • A little history, context, summ...

An attack, new money, and a strangely strong Hryvnia
UKRAINE · Report · 17 Dec 2018

The IMF Executive Board has added Ukraine to its agenda for a December 18th meeting. Since the government has done all of its homework, expectations are positive. The only uncertainty is the size of the next tranche. The EU has already wired €500 million under its new Macro Financial Assistance p...

Inflation expectations move higher on planned price hikes and weaker shekel
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Dec 2018

November's CPI (1.2% y/y) came in slightly lower than expected, and core inflation declined to 0.8% y/y. We see inflation reaching 1.3% in 2019 on a slightly weaker shekel and a steady increase in housing rentals. Although the CA surplus surprised on the upside (reaching 2% GDP in Q318), FX deman...

Trade surpluses: High also in 2019
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Dec 2018

The mercantilist view that high trade surpluses are good for Brazil collapses when considering that their growth since the end of 2015 has largely been due to the reduction of imports, generated by the precipitous decline of fixed capital investments. Exports have also grown in the period, benefi...

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