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Another minister with an impossible job
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Mar 2025

The first impression one gets from the latest economic activity results is that Colombia did not take advantage of an enormous opportunity offered by international markets and economic conditions. Oil and coal prices were high over the last two years, as was demand, and 2024 economic growth in th...

Slide Presentation - Ecuador Runoff: Shifting votes and the road ahead
ECUADOR · Report · 31 Mar 2025

Get insight into the Ecuadorian presidential debate and its implications for Ecuador with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Ecuador Runoff: Shifting votes and the road ahead". 

Economics: Amid shifting tariff threats, and cautious investors and consumers, indicators confirm a weakening cycle
MEXICO · Report · 31 Mar 2025

Indicators released in March confirmed that Mexico’s economy continues to stall. GDP decelerated to half a percentage point in the fourth quarter of 2024 under the weight of a sharp drop in investment and a further slowing of private consumption, as consumers grow more cautious and pessimistic ab...

Mixed prospects
CENTRAL AMERICA · Presentation · 31 Mar 2025

Guatemala posted solid economic growth in 2024, with GDP rising 3.7%, supported by strong remittances, resilient domestic demand and improving investor confidence under the new administration. Inflation fell to 1.7%, reserves hit a record high and the fiscal deficit narrowed to 1% of GDP. While m...

Why Bolsonaro is not yet defeated and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2025

Lower House Speaker Hugo Motta is meeting with party leaders to discuss the amnesty bill for those involved in the anti-democratic acts of January 8. Motta may also announce the rapporteur for the bill on income tax reform. Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM) may present a timetable for PLP 108/24, wh...

Yellow lights flashing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Mar 2025

The inflationary scenario remains challenging despite some signs of economic slowdown. The economy is expected to continue operating at full employment, maintaining inflationary pressure, as revealed by its underlying indicators. In the labor market in particular, the slow adjustment of the un...

Lower inflation means rate cuts, but pushback is building from inflation and stability concerns
PHILIPPINES · Report · 31 Mar 2025

We believe that benign inflation readings and forecasts should allow the BSP to sustain its easing cycle at least twice this year and in baby steps. Modest easing is critical when uncertainties abound, particularly regarding the prospects for growth and financial stability. With a potentially wea...

Still a plateau? MPC arguments continue to weaken
POLAND · In Brief · 31 Mar 2025

Today’s flash release of inflation for March 2025 by Statistics Poland shows the same 4.9% year-on-year (y/y) for the third consecutive month. Our estimate of the core inflation in March stands at 3.5% y/y (net of food, energy and fuel prices). As far as the components of inflation are concerned,...

Marco Rubio's most excellent trip to Jamaica
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 31 Mar 2025

From a Jamaican government perspective at least, Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s trip to Jamaica could not have gone better. At his post-meeting press conference with the Jamaican Prime Minister, issues ranging from our use of Cuban doctors and the current negative US travel advisory were all de...

House leadership faces pressure over amnesty bill for January 8 rioters, tax reform advances amid debates on legislative deadlines, and U.S. tariff changes and trade talks mark key international developments
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2025

The Speaker of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), will meet this Tuesday, April 1, with party leaders to discuss the bill that grants amnesty to those involved in the January 8 events. The House bills are awaiting the installation of a Special Committee. This week, Hugo Motta may announce t...

Long-time gap between real wages and retail sales growth closed in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2025

For quite a while, but at least throughout the whole of 2024, government speakers and all sorts of analysts have been complaining about the weakness of consumption growth, in comparison with the expansion of real wages. Problem solved, one could say when looking at the January data (yoy changes i...

Ramadan 2025
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Mar 2025

This report was written on the last day of Ramadan, the fasting month for the Muslim people. In Indonesia, the last two days were holidays, not because of Ramadan but because of the Hindu holiday, observed especially on Bali Island but which has become a national holiday. At the same time, Cathol...

Kyiv signals election readiness in bid to counter Putin’s game
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Mar 2025

The Economist reported that Volodymyr Zelenskiy has instructed his team to prepare for elections as early as this summer. Allegedly, Parliament may lift Martial Law in May, following a potential ceasefire expected to begin on April 20th. Frankly, as of today, all of this sounds like a highly unre...

Israel weekly economic wrap: rising geopolitical tensions, 2025 budget passes, but fiscal risks remain amid signs of economic softening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Mar 2025

The past week in Israel was marked primarily by heightened domestic tensions surrounding the judicial overhaul and the anticipated clash between the government and the Supreme Court. This stems from efforts to dismiss both the Attorney General and the head of Israel’s Security Agency (Shin Bet). ...

Modus vivendi?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Mar 2025

The Trump administration’s top priority on Venezuela at the moment is to show its base that it is delivering on campaign promises regarding immigration. Its strategies are grounded in pragmatic, transactional exchanges—not in promoting democracy or economic freedoms. Florida’s Republican bas...

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