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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

There is no free lunch, Q.E.D.
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2018

Consumer prices rose by a higher-than-expected 0.7% in December, but thanks to base effects (e.g., food), the 12-month rate has eased to 11.9%, from 13% in November. Likewise, producer prices eased to 15.5% in December from 17.3% in November but needless to say, headline inflation remains highly ...

Three wishes for the economy in 2018
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 01 Jan 2018

1. Much more activity under Build Build Build (BBB), government’s massive P8.1 trillion medium-term infrastructure program that has been likened to a battleship that will be hard to stop once it has gathered momentum. The passage of the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) Act puts s...

A nice Christmas gift from the EU Commission
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Dec 2017

In our December report, we wrote that the parallel achievement of the government's end-year spending targets, especially to disburse HUF 2500 bn to local beneficiaries under EU development programs in full-year 2017, and compliance with the legal requirement to reduce the gross debt ratio during ...

Sweet and Sour Year End
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Dec 2017

The year closes with a mix of good and bad data and news. Politically, the government managed to pass its economic agenda through Congress (tax reform, fiscal responsibility, transfer to provinces, social security, financial transaction tax and 2018 budget ), with the support of the traditional P...

Hope of Deliverance
CHILE · Report · 29 Dec 2017

Markets celebrated Sebastian Piñera’s second-round election victory. The peso appreciated and the stock market jumped. We will have to wait a little bit to determine whether this optimism translates into improved business confidence and a pickup in investment. As of November, business confidence ...

​Political power struggle at year end
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Dec 2017

Wednesday night the Government managed to close the year with the approval of the remaining three economic bills which were debated until late night in the Senate. These are: 1) the 2018 budget, 2) the tax reform and 3) the extension of the financial transaction tax. These three laws, together wi...

Ending 2017 with new optimism
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Dec 2017

New optimism has emerged in the period approaching the end of 2017. While in the first half of the year skepticism abounded because of the slow growth in corporate sales of many companies, in Q3 the situation improved a bit. In the last quarter of this year, new optimism was driven by the bright...

Consumption slows down and Panama enters the EU blacklist
PANAMA · Report · 27 Dec 2017

Panama´s economy continues to grow with a real GDP expansion of 5.4% in Q3 and 5.6% from January to September. In YTD terms, growth was driven by transportation and communications, construction, financial intermediation and services to business. The bad news was retail trade: following a 6.1% ...

Narrowing the external imbalance
CHINA · Report · 26 Dec 2017

Growth remained stable in November, with industrial output up 6.1% y/y. Fixed asset investment excluding agriculture was up 6.3% y/y, up 0.5 pps from October, and up 2.4 pps from its August nadir. However, the current investment growth rate is still lower than investment goods’ price growth rate,...

Looking ahead to 2018, AMLO’s fantasy cabinet disappoints
MEXICO · Report · 26 Dec 2017 · 1 response

Economic indicators were mixed in December as the leading index for October showed its first negative adjustment in ten months (-0.02 compared to September), but remained in positive range. This slight setback reflected a softening of the growth trend in manufacturing payrolls, and a drop in the ...

President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski has pardoned ex-president Fujimori
PERU · In Brief · 24 Dec 2017 · 1 response

This afternoon after a special cabinet meeting PPK granted a humanitarian pardon to ex-President Alberto Fujimori. Yesterday Fujimori was hurriedly taken to a local clinic because of an arrhythmia. In the highly polarized political situation Peru is undergoing, it is expected that the anti-Fujimo...

Stockholm arbitration clarifies on its decision: both Naftogaz and Gazprom call victory
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Dec 2017

On Dec 22 Naftogaz published a release describing details on decision of the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce on lawsuit of Russian Gazprom against Naftogaz. According to the release Stockholm Arbitration: recognized $352 per tcm gas price for Ukraine in 2Q 2014 instead ...

Holding our breath at least until January
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Dec 2017

We see two scenarios for 2018. In one, Nicolás Maduro consolidates his position as head of a radicalized authoritarian regime and remains in power through a sham election early in the year, at great economic and human cost. In the other, social and economic hardship at home and pressure from abro...

Dark, like oil
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 22 Dec 2017 · 1 response

The outlook for the Venezuelan economy in 2018 is dire. Deep depression and hyperinflation augur hard times. Policy reforms are unlikely and foreign funding will not lift Venezuela out of its problems, for now.

From rabbits, back to elephants
TURKEY · Forecast · 22 Dec 2017

The year will close with a stellar growth rate, at around 6.5% we now estimate, thanks to massive stimulus measures and to a lesser extent growth in net exports. But macro imbalances have worsened as well, with inflation likely to end the year at around 11.5%, up from 8.5% at end-2016, and the cu...

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