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Economics: Positive Signs from Nafta Round 5
MEXICO · Report · 27 Nov 2017

The fifth round of the Nafta renegotiations proved to be something of an improvement over the stalemate of the previous round, which had heightened pessimism about the pact’s fate. Negotiators made progress on technical details that are the bedrock of the trade pact. Canada and especially Mexico ...

2017-2019 forecast: a crumbling economy and Maduro in power
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 27 Nov 2017

Our 2017–2019 forecast sees the economy crumbling, hyperinflation setting in, and Maduro's policies staying in place. GDP falls by a quarter over our forecast horizon, and inflation approaches 23,000 percent by 2019. Oil output and exports continue to slip, but the current account becomes positiv...

Politics: More Pieces of of the 2018 Puzzle in Place
MEXICO · Report · 27 Nov 2017

The next two weeks are shaping up to be decisive for the 2018 electoral process, and parties will have sorted out by mid December the procedures through which they will select their nominees for office. With Andrés Manuel López Obrador having a lock on the nomination of his center-left Morena...

A big jump in cement sales
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Nov 2017

The Indonesian economy displayed a slight improvement in Q3 2017, posting a rate of growth of 5.06%, which was modestly better than the 5.01% achieved in Q2 2017. At the same time, the Business Tendency Index also showed increased optimism compared with the previous quarter. One interesting fact ...

Definition in the PRI candidate
MEXICO · In Brief · 27 Nov 2017

The long wait has ended. After much speculation and rumors, this morning José Antonio Meade made official his resignation to the post of Minister of the Treasury to pursue the candidacy of the PRI to the presidency of the Republic. In the same announcement, President Peña named José Antonio Gonzá...

Business cycle conditions
INDIA · Report · 27 Nov 2017

The revenues of non-finance non-oil companies appear to be growing at around 4-5%, nominal annualized. Profitability remains weak. In the aggregate, interest payments are growing faster than revenues or profits. However, there is increased divergence in a two-speed economy, with an upper tail th...

External Sector
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Nov 2017

After a sequence of 10 years running current account deficits, small surpluses have started to appear (based on seasonally adjusted monthly numbers). The most intense movement is in the trade balance, whose strong surpluses are a consequence of the decrease of imports provoked by the extremely lo...

Our Winter of Discontent
TURKEY · Report · 26 Nov 2017

As Reza Zarrab is believed to be cooperating with the prosecution, odds of a guilty verdict in the Iranian sanctions case against Turkish persons and entities are increasing. AKP admits that the conclusion of the trial could do serious damage to Turkey’s economic interests. Pressure from Germany ...

Short-term concern about EU Commission audit may be out of the way
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Nov 2017

In our November report, we wrote that the payment of about EUR 1.1bn of due reimbursement by the EU Commission to Hungary before end-2017 seemed to be at risk, due to an ongoing audit by the Commission at the Prime Minister's Office in Hungary, the administrative unit responsible for the distribu...

Beijing Sees New Problems
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Nov 2017

We just conducted a week of interviews in Beijing and nearby Jinan, Capital of Shandong Province. A few thoughts on these subjects: * Inflation * Consumer Debt * Growing Receivables * New Private Banks * Rising Power of Reformer Wang Yang * The Mantra of Private Public Partnerships

Opening Finance – the Right Way
CHINA · Report · 24 Nov 2017

Growth was relatively stable in October. Industrial output was up 6.2% y/y, almost the same as in previous months. Yet key growth drivers weakened. Fixed asset investment was up 5.8% y/y, slightly above the nadir, but lower than the investment price level. So real investment growth is still negat...

The Reserve Bank Treads with Caution as Credit Ratings and The ANC Elective Conference Approach
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Nov 2017

The South African Reserve Bank’s Governor Lesetja Kganyago has announced that the Bank will be keeping the country’s repo rate at 6.75%, and hence the prime interest rate also remains at 10.25%. Headline CPI receded to 4.8% y/y in October 2017 (the same rate recorded in August 2017) following ...

China’s Financial Opening Opportunities in Bank Consolidation
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Nov 2017

China has agreed to open its banking sector to greater foreign ownership. This could signal an opportunity for foreign investors – depending, of course, on how serious Beijing is. There are many options for China entry for foreign institutions, from commercial lending, to securities transactions,...

MNB decision went in the expected direction, but it seems bigger than expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Nov 2017

The Monetary Council today made decisions which go in the direction of preliminary signals and market expectation, in so far as:- they left all interest rates unchanged; and- they introduced new non-conventional policies, just as they more or less had promised, and so the market had expected.Howe...

Recovery of Activity a Step at a Time
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2017

It has long been known that economic cycles are not like cycles in physic. No two economic cycles are alike, much less are the trajectories deterministic. Instead, the forces that determine the dynamics of a given episode can be less important in another, in which new forces also emerge. There ar...

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