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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Webinar Replay - Brazil: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Jun 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Brazil's monetary and fiscal policy and its impact on the country's macroeconomic outlook. What is the Central Bank of Brazil signaling about the future of the country's monetary policy? How will the increasing inflation expectations b...

Kazakhstan passed law on media
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jun 2024

On June 20 the president signed the law that allows people 3 years after the publication of an item in which to file a lawsuit. Anything disrespectful will be subject to legal proceedings. All internet resources are now designated media outlets and therefore subject to the law. The rules around r...

Gamechanger
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 20 Jun 2024 · 1 response

The constitutional injunction filed on June 19 before the Supreme Court of Justice by Jaime Gonzalez, deputy of the National Assembly for a "loyal opposition party," will most likely lead to an indefinite suspension of the presidential election scheduled for July 28. The plaintiff requests an unn...

Russian macro: GDP—uneven performance by sector amid ongoing structural changes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2024

In the aftermath of Rosstat’s publication of regular economic statistics that looked decent in 1Q24 and 4M24, June appears to be a month with some negative surprises. Persistently high (and even accelerating) inflation is one of them. The statistical agency reported that the MTD inflation reached...

Temporary Relief in the Storm
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2024

This time there were no surprises as the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided, as expected, not only to maintain the target for the benchmark interest rate at 10.5% per year but also did so unanimously, scaling down – at least for now – fears of another divided decision, which...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Jun 2024

The recently announced package of sanctions against several companies (including the National Clearing Center), which provides infrastructure for FX trading at the Moscow Exchange (MOEX), was a negative surprise. Even though the market participants had been considering such a possibility since 20...

Padilha said he will soon find the funding source for compensatory measures for payroll tax relief, there will be no legislative activity next week, and the Central Bank decided to maintain the basic interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jun 2024

Yesterday, the Minister of the Secretariat for Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, said that the government expects to reach an agreement with Congress and business leaders within two weeks to establish a source of compensation for the payroll tax exemption. Padilha's deadline is the firs...

Slide Presentation - Brazil: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2024

Get insight into Brazil's monetary and fiscal policy and its impact on the country's macroeconomic outlook with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Brazil: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly".

Disinflation (with risks)
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Jun 2024

In this piece, our outlook for 2024–2025, we hold to our single public policy scenario no matter who wins the July 28 presidential election. Regardless of that outcome, the Maduro government will be in power at least until January 2025 and will have incentives to hold to its stabilization course ...

Putin visits Vietnam
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jun 2024

On June 20 Putin arrived in the country for the fifth time. He met the Vietnamese President. Russia likes to prove that it has cordial relations with some countries despite the Ukraine War. Vietnam is neutral on the war. Vietnam sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine. There is a small Vietnamese commun...

Putin visits North Korea
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2024

On May 18 Putin arrived in the country for the first time since 2000. For a long time North Korea was unimportant to Russia. It mattered much more to trade with North Korea's regional foes: South Korea and Japan. All that changed in 2022. Russia needs shells and other military hardware. North Kor...

France to give howitzers to Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2024

On June 18 a deal was made with Armenia. They will be CAESARs, which are self-propelled. The agreement was signed in Paris by the respective defense ministers. Armenia's archenemy is Azerbaijan. Baku will not be happy that France is arming Armenia. Because the EU is trying to wean itself off Russ...

European and local elections have changed domestic politics substantially
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Jun 2024 · 1 response

In the European election of June 9, Mr. Orbán’s hopes that the radical right would beat the mainstream bloc were essentially dashed, despite the former indeed making some moderate gains. His immediate response was a sharp turn in external policies, holding back Hungary's blocking votes against NA...

The Challenge of Seasonality
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jun 2024

According to the Monthly Retail Trade Survey (PMC), broad retail fell 1% in April, a contraction following 2.5% growth in the first quarter. However, it is noteworthy the discrepancy between this result and the growth of restricted retail (0.9%), vehicles and parts (1.6%), and building materials ...

Congress prepares for 2026 elections; we expect the fiscal deficit to widen, and the CA to remain in surplus; Central Bank will keep cutting, but more policy pauses can’t be ruled out
PERU · Report · 18 Jun 2024

In this report, we begin by discussing politics, focusing on the high number of laws approved by Congress that will shape the 2026 presidential and congressional elections. We then summarize our forecasts on the economy. We start by discussing our base, low and high-case scenarios, followed by re...

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