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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GDP recovery in Q2 was driven by net exports, positively for the HUF and inflation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Sep 2016

This morning, the KSH published its detailed GDP numbers for Q2. According to those, the sharp recovery of GDP (+1% qoq, +1.5% yoy, sda) that followed a rather negative outcome (-0.8% qoq, +0.7% yoy) in Q1 was driven predominantly by a surge of net exports, rather than by domestic adsorption. In ...

Saber Rattling and Political Conflict
UKRAINE · Report · 06 Sep 2016

August was a turbulent month. First came the disturbing news of Russia’s buildup of military forces on the borders of mainland Ukraine. The Kremlin also officially blamed the Ukrainian military for organizing a terrorist attack in Crimea, which added to the frayed nerves of the international co...

​State of national emergency
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Sep 2016

Malacanang today issued Proclamation 55, two days after President Rodrigo Durterte declared a state of national emergency. The Proclamation commanded the Armed Forces of the Philippines, together with the Philippine National Police, “to undertake such measures as may be permitted by the Constitut...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Sep 2016

Now that the long impeachment process is over, it is beholden to President Michel Temer, freed from the constraints of interim status, to fulfill the promises made to those who supported him during that process and to burnish his biography as the person responsible for defining a new political cy...

Week of September 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Sep 2016

The September 7 holiday means reduced political activity in Brasília. The Senate will try to vote on two important provisional measures of interest to the government. The STF will analyze another appeal by Rep. Eduardo Cunha, who hopes to avoid disbarment. In the economy, we highlight the minutes...

The Start of Monetary Easing is Approaching
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Sep 2016

The communiqué from the last COPOM meeting left the door – formerly shut – ajar to starting a monetary easing cycle. The committee conditioned that decision on: a) limited persistence of the food price shock (read “lower food prices”); b) deceleration of the components of the IPCA more sensitive ...

Inflation: Another Cut Now Very Likely
TURKEY · Report · 05 Sep 2016

Consumer price inflation surprised somewhat on the downside in August, dropping by 0.3%, thanks to a sharper than expected fall in food prices. The 12-month rate hence declined to 8.0%, from 8.8% in July. Producer prices rose modestly by 0.1% (August 2015: 1.0%), which helped to reduce the 12-mon...

BOI likely to revise growth forecast upwards
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Sep 2016

Highlights:Rate stability for September came as no surprise but BOI tone more hawkish.The monetary statement noted upward growth surprise in Q2.Labor market approaching full employment.Risk to achieving growth target no longer significant.Yet, forward guidance maintained with accommodative policy...

Week of September 4
TURKEY · Report · 04 Sep 2016

With our politics author, Mr. Yesilada, on his way back from a short break, we devote this Tracker to a review of the economic data alone. Mr. Yesilada will begin with his updates in the next day or two on the past week’s myriad of political developments, which included, inter alia, another incur...

SA Political Economy: The Zuma-Gordhan Fog is Lifting- slowly!
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 02 Sep 2016

After weeks and weeks of ugly spats between the warring factions within the ANC, and following two weeks of non-stop political wrestling between the President and the Minister of Finance, today the Cabinet made its first statement, indicating some kind of a truce; or at least the end of open poli...

Risks and Challenges: What Michel Temer must do and must avoid to make it to 2018
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Sep 2016

After the conclusion of the impeachment by the Senate, President Michel Temer will face important challenges. ​ 1. Appeasement of the governing coalition: The PSDB and DEM criticized the PMDB for giving mixed signals to society and the market regarding the fiscal austerity effort. At the same ...

What Should be the Reaction to the Appreciating Exchange Rate?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Sep 2016

Even without growth of capital inflows, the real has been getting stronger, and that trend will likely accentuate with reaffirmation of the commitment to carry out the fiscal adjustment now that impeachment has been confirmed. The strengthening of the nominal exchange rate has been affecting the ...

Raising Taxes
PHILIPPINES · Report · 01 Sep 2016

I was privileged to be among a small group of practicing senior economists from academia and business, many of whom are former finance officials, consulted by the senior leadership of the Department of Finance (DoF) to help flesh out its tax reform strategy. Below outlines the key elements of the...

INDEC’s Renaissance Affects the GDP Warrant
ARGENTINA · Report · 01 Sep 2016

The National Statistical Bureau (INDEC) is gradually regularizing its flow of statistical information, and thereby emerging from the catatonic state into which it had fallen when the Macri administration began revising its methodologies, after years of misreporting statistical data. June’s mo...

E-declarations finally launched
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Sep 2016

On August 31st e-declarations were finally launched. Civil activists also confirm that the system was properly started. Recall in mid-August there had been unfolding a scandal about failed e-declarations launch. On August 15th National agency on corruption prevention launched e-declarations only ...

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