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Politics: Officials Boxed Into Corner on Reform
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2016

Protests by teachers have led to government negotiations on several levels in the past two weeks. After engaging in talks with the dissident faction of the teachers’ union in an effort to end the crisis posed by the roadblocks hardline anti education-reform protestors are periodically setting up ...

Brexit Stokes Yuan Uncertainty
CHINA · Report · 26 Jul 2016

GDP grew 6.7% y/y in Q2, the same rate as in Q1. There’s downward pressure on future growth, though we also expect growth to stabilize. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y. Though growth was 0.3 pps faster than in Q1, the recovery is weak. Fixed asset investment rose 8.2% y/y in real terms, dow...

​Unfazed By Politics, Ratings, the CBRT Intends Further Easing
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Jul 2016

The CBRT Governor Murat Cetinkaya presented the third (his second) Inflation Report of the year today. The yearend inflation forecasts for both 2016 and 2017 have been kept at 7.5% and 6% (mid-points), respectively, with some changes in composition, as we had surmised on Sunday. For 2016, in part...

Maduro likes how the military governs
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Jul 2016

By promoting General Vladimir Padrino López as virtual head of cabinet (some say co-president) and praising his governing abilities, Maduro is trying to take power and political responsibility off of his shoulders and onto those of the military, which has so far shown its full support. By acce...

Asset Prices and the Real Side in Temer’s Fiscal Adjustment
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Jul 2016

The climate is one of extreme optimism regarding the future of the Brazilian economy. After years of a seemingly endless succession of economic policy blunders, the new government has a competent economic team with a correct diagnosis. Although the recession is not yet over, important signs exist...

Week of July 25
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jul 2016 · 1 response

This is the last week of the legislative recess and, therefore, it will be relatively quiet. President Dilma Rousseff’s defense presents its final statements to the Impeachment Committee. Demonstrations in favor of the impeachment are organized for Sunday, July 31, but are likely to be postponed.

A New Central Bank and a New Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Jul 2016

In the inflation targeting regime, the nominal anchor is provided by inflation expectations, whose convergence to the target is assured by a combination of correct application of the monetary policy tool (the basic interest rate) and clear and transparent communication about the central bank’s pr...

​The President’s Speech
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 25 Jul 2016

President Rodrigo Duterte delivered his first State of the Nation Address (SONA) before a joint session of Congress this afternoon. The supposed 38-minute speech extended to over an hour as the President went off-script numerous times to explain his stance and policies. The style was very differe...

​Despite pressure for shekel appreciation, rate hold decision expected today
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Jul 2016

Pressure for shekel appreciation mounts The shekel has strengthened by 1.5% (against the basket) since 6.7.16. The shekel is 0.3% away from the strongest level seen this year (in May).This is somewhat surprising as Flug views the ILS as too strong.Nevertheless, we expect rate stability today.The ...

Will Hungary indeed introduce the euro by the end of this decade?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2016

Well, hardly so, we believe. Yet economy minister Varga threw up the topic a week ago, in an interview to a local daily newspaper (Magyar Hírlap) that joining the Euro Area by the end of this decade 'cannot be baseless' if current macro trends continue and productivity keeps rising. According to ...

Week of July 24
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jul 2016

Our political analyst is not yet ready to capitulate to the majority scenario that AKP will exploit the coup attempt to institute a more authoritarian regime. We empathize with AKP’s draconian purges given the realistic threat assessment from the Gulen Order. We first analyze the evidence for aut...

An Unsurprising Move by the Reserve Bank not to Hike Interest Rates
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Jul 2016

​The South African Reserve Bank announced today it was keeping the benchmark interest rate at 7%, meaning that the prime lending rate would also remain at 10.5%. This was the second time in a row this year that the MPC decided not to increase the repo rate (decreasing the rate has not been an opt...

State of Emergency will reveal AKP’s true intentions
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Jul 2016

After a recommendation from the State Security Council, Turkey’s Cabinet of Ministers resolved to propose a State of Emergency to the Grand Assembly. While opposition parties CHP and HDP immediately objected to the proposal in strong terms, I think the resolution will pass easily. The State of Em...

Trying Times
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Jul 2016

The Ecuadorian economy contracted severely in Q1, with GDP shrinking 1.9% q/q, and 3% y/y. Despite the poor performance of oil revenues due to plummeting oil prices, the oil sector value added was still positive, at 2% q/q and 1% y/y, while the non-oil sector shrank 2.2% q/q and 2.6% y/y. Hous...

The Test of SA Democracy: August 2016 Elections
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Jul 2016

On August 3, 2016, South Africa will hold its nationwide local government elections. Since its last local government elections in 2011, much has changed in the country’s political economy landscape. The governing tripartite alliance of the ANC, the SA Communist Party (SACP) and COSATU has been to...

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